Friday 03/05/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
My bias was bullish going into the NFP release, which worked out well. After the NFP release at 7:30, ES popped to 1131.50 and then pulled back to Support at 1126. I posted real-time scenarios on Twitter, which worked out well and kept me out of trouble. Trading trend days is not my strength, but I am working on it and slowly improving. I used to lose money on trend days because I would take too many counter-trend trades, too early. Now, I'm still taking counter-trend trades but I'm taking them at the extremes, e.g. I shorted 1138.50. This also shows how being aware of the Key Levels and generating bullish/bearish scenarios the night before and during the day has helped my trading. Hope you all did well, have a great weekend!

ES 5-Minute Chart


ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart

Friday 03/05/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
The price action and clear rejection off Support on February nonfarm payroll day set the bullish tone which has carried is from the low 1040s up to 1125. Now in March, we're again at in inflection point, except this time we have a big area of Resistance above and the NFP release is just the catalyst to re-price the market and set the tone for the coming few weeks. So far, we're continuing to see resilient Buyers, and overall market strength. Based on that information, my anticipation on the NFP release is a fast move down followed by upside continuation. I'm still viewing 1112.50 as my Bull/Bear Line in the Sand to establish directional bias. If we break below 1112, I would expect heavier liquidation and possibly a move down to 1103-1105. On the upside, I'm expecting the Buying to get shut off in the 1132.50-1135 area. As I mentioned last month, unless you're on a professional trading platform such as TT X-Trader with a very fast connection to the exchange, I would recommend staying on the sidelines during the NFP release. Price can move up/down 8-10 pts in a matter of seconds, so it is a high risk/high reward setup. Click here If you'd like to review charts and key level posts from past Nonfarm Payroll days.


Econ Data
Nonfarm Payrolls at 7:30 AM (cst), Consumer Credit at 2:00 PM (cst)

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels