Showing posts with label volume profile. Show all posts
Showing posts with label volume profile. Show all posts

Sunday, January 30, 2011

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures -- Balance Area Volume Profile

One of the metrics I keep track of is VPOC shifts from day to day, and a large VPOC shift typically provides edge in direction of the shift for the next few days. The VPOC on Thursday 1/27 was 1295.75, and it shifted down 23 points to 1272.75 on Friday 1/28. That being said, we still have to keep in mind that the market has been in an up-trend, and week over week, Value actually shifted higher. We have heavy Acceptance at 1270.50. The market may just consolidate within the 1267.50-1286.50 range for a few days until we get some real direction. A break below 1267.50 puts Sellers in Control. Good luck!

ES Volume Profile of the current Balance Area

Thursday, April 1, 2010

Thursday 04/01/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
Some nice action in the S&Ps today. As I mentioned in yesterday's review, we've observed Responsive Buying and Responsive Selling all week, and today was much of the same. Responsive Sellers quickly rejected higher prices, and once price moved below 1167, Responsive Buyers quickly pushed price back up. 1167-1169 was the Area of heavy acceptance this week. This up move is losing momentum though. The previous week's high was 1176.50, and the high for this week so far is only one handle higher at 1177.50. If price gets below 1158, and longs begin liquidating, we could easily get a pullback to the 1139-1141 area.

Btw, I've received questions regarding the arrows on the 5-Minute charts I post in the daily reviews. To clarify, the arrows are NOT plotted automatically. I manually place those arrows on the charts where I see good setups (a lot of times within the Key Areas posted the night before). Some of the arrows are actual trades that I took (e.g. I shorted 1177 and went long at 1167 today). But not all of them are my trades. I don't plot all my trades on the 5-minute chart; just the setups. Hope that clears things up.

The markets are closed tomorrow for Good Friday, so enjoy the day off and have a good weekend!

ES 5-Minute Chart


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart

Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Thursday 04/01/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
The current range for the WEEK is 12.50 points (1161.25-1173.75)! We've built acceptance between 1167.75 and 1169.75, and every move above and below that area has been met with Responsive Buying and Responsive Selling. We need a catalyst to drive this market outside of this range, at which point, I would anticipate some Initiative Activity. Tomorrow could be a trend day when price finally pushes to 1150 or 1183...or we could just get more of the same (chop). When everyone gets complacent (comfortable) within the current range, we'll probably get a surprise move that will force one party (either buyers or sellers) to liquidate their positions. As long as we hold above 1163, my bias remains (cautiously) to the upside. Trade well!

Econ Data
Motor Vehicle Sales, Jobless Claims at 7:30 AM (CT), Construction Spending and ISM Mfg Index at 9:00 AM (CT), EIA Natural Gas Report at 9:30 AM (CT).

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Wed. 03/31/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
We got a solid bounce at Initial Support, but no follow-through above 1170. NYSE TICK Divergences provided some nice entries on both sides. At this point, the market is pretty much balanced between 1160 and 1170, and we need a catalyst to drive price out of this range.

ES 5-Minute Chart


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Wed. 03/31/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
I'm going to continue using 1163.25 as my Bull/Bear Line in Sand, which means the current near-term bias is Bullish. Tomorrow is also the last day of the month, and the market has a tendency to be bullish in the afternoon session. It's a scenario I'm prepared for, so I will try to get more out any Long positions in the afternoon if I see Buy setups around that time. The morning could be choppy or even bearish. Be prepared, go in with a plan, and be mindful of trade location. Initiate trades where you feel comfortable and don't get caught up in the chop. Keep your bias in check. Everyone wants this market to drop, and it could drop tomorrow, or it could test the low 1180s. Trade well!

Econ Data
ADP Employment Report at 7:15 AM (CT), Chicago PMI at 8:45 AM (CT), Factory Orders at 9:00 AM (CT), and EIA Petroleum Status Report at 9:30 AM (CT).

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Tuesday 03/30/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
As anticipated, we got an outside day today where the market looked for Buyers below and Sellers above yesterday's balance area of 1167.75-1169. The low volatility may also be due to the holiday week. Responsive Sellers kept price below 1175 and Responsive Buyers pushed price back into Value, and we closed at 1169.25. My bias remains Bullish above 1163.

ES 5-Minute Chart


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart

Monday, March 29, 2010

Tuesday 03/30/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
After Monday's range-bound price action where the market was in balance between 1167.75 and 1169, I'm anticipating an outside day where price may test 1175-1176.50 on the upside and 1160.75-1163.75 on the downside. My Bull/Bear Line in Sand is 1163.25; bullish if price is trading above it, and bearish if price is trading below that level. I anticipate the buying to get shut off by 1181.50 and the Selling to get shut off by 1153.50.

Econ Data
Redbook at 7:55 AM (CT), S&P Case-Shiller HPI at 8:00 AM (CT), Consumer Confidence at 9:00 AM (CT), and State Street Investor Confidence Index at 9:00 AM (CT)

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Monday 03/29/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
We had a 5.75 point day session range on anemic volume. Thankfully, days like today only come around once in a while and are typically followed by range expansion, so be prepared for a better trading day tomorrow.

ES 5-Minute Chart


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart

Sunday, March 28, 2010

Monday 03/29/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
Last week, we observed strong Responsive Buying and each dip was bought up quickly, so the bias going into Monday is Bullish as long as price remains above Friday's Low (1156.50). On the upside, I would anticipate the Buying to shut off in the 1181-1183 area. The markets have been on a tear, and we haven't had any significant pullback. On the downside, 1139-1141 is a heavy area of Support and I anticipate Strong Buying to take place there if we get down to that area this week. It's also the end of the month, and Bulls sitting on large gains will probably want to close out March on a positive note! Keep in mind that on the larger time-frames, Bears are the ones who are hurting in this market. Trade well!

Econ Data
Personal Income and Outlays at 7:30 AM (CT)

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Saturday, March 27, 2010

Friday 03/26/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
I was anticipating a test of 1170, and we almost got there (1169.75 was High of Day). The NYSE TICK was flashing negative divergences well in advance of the drop. The Key Levels provided great trade location on both, Longs and Shorts. 1157.50 was my Bull/Bear Line in Sand, and we bounced off 1156.50; a tick ahead of previous week's Close.

ES 5-Minute Chart


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart

Thursday, March 25, 2010

Friday 03/26/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
Intermediate Tops aren't typically put in place with single day sell-offs, and I'm anticipating a test of the 1170-1175 area. That doesn't mean we won't get rotations (pullbacks) along the way in the Resistance Areas, but one day of selling is no reason to go all-out bearish on the market. My Bull/Bear Line in Sand is still 1157.50; a break of that level could result in Long Liquidation and the Bears are antsy and prepared to pounce on this market, so we could move down to the 1145 or even 1139-1140 area. On the bright side, it's nice to see some volatility back in the market! Keep an eye on the XLE (Energy ETF); it could give provide a heads-up on short-term market direction. Final note: Anything can happen at anytime! Be prepared and trade well!

Econ Data
GDP at 7:30 AM (CT), Consumer Sentiment at 8:55 AM (CT).

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Thursday 03/25/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
The Key Levels provided nice entry points (I shorted 1175.25). We only got one Close above 1175.50 on the 5-minute chart; and even then it was only a tick above 75.50. Prices above 1175.50 were rejected all morning. After failing to facilitate trade above 1175, the only logical direction was Down. We got rotation in the Key Areas on the way down and observed initiative selling below 1169 in the last hour of trade. Tomorrow's GDP number should provide clarity on direction, but I would say Bears shouldn't get too comfortable just yet.

ES 5-Minute Chart


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart

Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Thursday 03/25/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
We saw Responsive Buyers defend the 1161 level on Wednesday and we continued to build acceptance in the 1163-1164 area. This High Volume Area can be used to establish short-term bias; bullish above it, and bearish below it. My Bull/Bear Line in Sand is 1157.50; we could get heavier liquidation below that level. Market internals as well as the Russel and S&P400 Midcaps closed near their lows, which is at the very least a caution flag. On the upside, if price remains above 1163 overnight, we could blow right through the Overnight Resistance; and test the High of Year. Be careful around the 1171.25 area; if we get up there, I would anticipate them to run the stops, followed by a quick move down. It's just a scenario I'm prepared for; doesn't mean I "expect" it to play out exactly like that, but just something to keep in mind (e.g. scale out of Longs there). The next big level after 1171.25 is 1182-1183.

Econ Data
Jobless Claims at 7:30 AM (CT), EIA Natural Gas Report at 9:30 AM(CT), Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies to the House Committee on Financial Services about the Fed's exit strategy at 9:00 AM (CT).

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Wed. 03/24/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
Last night's post called for a consolidation day with narrower range (8-10 points), which played out well today. The day session range was 7.75 points, and the 24-hour session range was 9 points. I was anticipating Responsive Buying at 1161, and that turned out to be the low tick of the day. We're continuing to build acceptance (volume) in the 1163.50-1164 area. I expect selling pressure below 1164, and buying pressure above it.

ES 5-Minute Chart


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart

Wed. 03/24/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
After Tuesday's late afternoon upside breakout, a test of the breakout level (1165.50) is expected; and it looks like we may even get it in overnight trading (ES currently trading at 1167). My plan for tomorrow is to buy the dips into the Key Support Areas, and Short the upside moves into Resistance. There wasn't much buying interest in the 1170-1170.50 area, and I'll be looking to Short it on first touch. I'd be cautious initiating Longs above 1170 since I'm anticipating significant rotation in the 1170-1180 area. If the break-out is "real", I would expect 1163 to hold; a break of 1158.50 would make me suspicious of this upside breakout move and we may get a stronger move down (failure of breakout). I'm expecting consolidation here, and a narrower range day (8-10 points).

Econ Data
Durable Goods Orders at 7:30 AM (CT), New Home Sales at 9:00 AM (CT), and EIA Petroleum Status Report at 9:30 AM (CT).

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

Tuesday 03/23/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

In last night's post I wrote, "Given the recent strength, I'm anticipating either consolidation or break-out to the upside." -- and we got both today: consolidation followed by a break-out to new yearly highs. The morning consolidation chop was very boring to trade, so kudos to you if you sat through it and were able to take advantage of the late afternoon break-out. Looking at the 1-Minute ES/NYSE-TICK chart, we got positive divergences a few minutes prior to the break-out. We also got positive delta 10 minutes prior to the break-out, with very little selling interest in the 1164.25-1164.75 area. 1170-1170.50 is near-term resistance now. A test of the 1163-1165 wouldn't surprise me. I'm also expecting rotation in the 1170-1180 area; a breakout above that could get us to 1200s in a hurry.

ES 5-Minute Chart


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures

Tuesday 03/23/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
ES is trading just a few points away from its high of year (1165.50), and we could easily test and even break through that level tomorrow. The Nasdaq (NQ) made fresh highs on the year on Monday. The Russel and Dow are also trading close to their highs on the year. There are three scenarios possible here: consolidation, break-out, break-down. Given the recent strength, I'm anticipating either consolidation or break-out to the upside. Based on the current price action, my bias is Bullish. The Bull/Bear Line in Sand is 1153.25; bias would shift to Bearish below that level. We have the Existing Home Sales data out at 9:00 AM (CT); that could be the catalyst that motivates traders to enter the market with some conviction. We are seeing some volatility re-enter the market as well. The day session range over the last two days has been 14.75 points and 15.50 points. Keep that in mind when initiating counter-trend trades, or setting targets for trend trades. Trade well!

Econ Data
Redbook at 7:55 AM (CT), Existing Home Sales at 9:00 AM (CT), Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner testifies before the House Financial Services Committee at 9:00 AM (CT)

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Monday, March 22, 2010

Monday 03/22/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
I had marked Initial Support as 1144.25-1146.25, but Responsive Buyers came in ahead of that Area and pushed price back up. We got some rotation at Initial Resistance and then the Strong Resistance area, but the afternoon consolidation (chop) was frustrating to trade. It happens and we just have to roll with what the market gives us. Today's buying activity balances out Friday's selling activity. So far, most signs are pointing towards upside continuation.

ES 5-Minute Chart


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart

Monday 03/22/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
The House approved the health-care bill earlier today, and the S&P 500 futures have responded by opening gap down, and are currently trading at 1151. After the trend down on Friday, the primary plan for tomorrow is to short the bounces into the Resistance Areas. My Bull/Bear Line in Sand is 1156.75; I'll actively be looking for short-sell setups below that level. I'll consider Longs within the Key Support Areas, but they will be treated as counter-trend scalps until I see stronger buyers enter the market and push price above 1156.75.

Econ Data
No scheduled econ release. The health-care bill and any news out of Greece.

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels