Yesterday, I got the genius idea of trying out the mini-Russel 2000 futures (TF), and I thought I could just pull up some TF charts; adjust the time-frame on the tickbar charts and dive right in. Talk about being naive! The TF moves has its own rhythm compared to the ES, and over the course of the last few months, my mind has been trained to be in sync with the moves on the ES. I traded the TF in the morning, and was down -1.2 pts, which isn't too bad, but I quickly learned that you can't just jump into a new market/index without some research and dedicated screen time. Then later in the evening, I happened to be at Barnes & Noble and was browsing through John Carter's book in which he states that newer traders should start with the Mini-Dow (YM) since it's an "easier" instrument to trade, and has less professional participation. I figured I'd give it a shot, so I went over the Daily, 60-min, 15-min and 5 min YM charts, and set up my charts to trade the YM this morning. Again; not a great idea. I ended the first hour at break-even and then came to my senses and switched back to trading the S&P500. That was a good call. It was like I was back in my old neighborhood; in familiar territory. I traded the ES from 9:30 AM (central) till about 1 PM and netted +7.50 pts. This little exercise in trading the TF and YM showed me the importance of specializing in ONE market. The ES moves in a certain way, and after watching if for several months I've become comfortable with the way it moves. Over time you get a feel for how a certain market/instrument moves; to the point where you can get a feel for short-term direction just by looking at price action on the DOM. So no more dabbling in other markets trying to find the "easier" one to trade. Here are the Stats from today's trades in the ES:
| # of Trades | 18 |
| Longs | 11 |
| Shorts | 7 |
| % Break-Even: | 16.67 |
| % Win | 66.67 |
| % Loss | 16.67 |
| Avg Win | 0.85 |
| Avg Loss | -0.92 |
| Largest Win (pts) | 2.00 |
| Largest Loss (pts) | -1.50 |
| Total Win (pts) | 10.25 |
| Total Loss (pts) | -2.75 |
| Net Gain/Loss (pts) | 7.50 |
| ES Daily Range | 14.00 |
| P/L as % of Daily Range | 53.57 |
Not sure how many of you use Twitter, but I use it to document my thoughts and what I'm seeing Intraday. I'm also on StockTwits. You can go here: http://stocktwits.com/u/eminiplayer if you'd like to go over my posts and intraday charts from this morning highlighting support/resistance, $TICK Divergence setups, etc. Following are a few of my Twitter posts from today:
10:19 AM - Bulls in control as long as price remains above 835.50 on a 5-min CLOSING basis
10:24 AM - http://twitpic.com/6lok3 Good place to take some profits on Longs $ES_F Also seeing negative $TICK divergence on 1-min
10:27 AM - Shorted the pop into overhead resistance and negative $TICK divergence http://twitpic.com/6lp83
10:59 AM - Trying a scalp short with tight stop-loss here http://twitpic.com/6lr0k
11:02 AM - Out for +2 pts http://twitpic.com/6lr9h
11:16 AM - Some support here http://twitpic.com/6lse9
12:47 PM -$TICK Divergence providing some nice scalps today http://twitpic.com/6lzvp
2:00 PM - Prior Resistance, now Support. I would avoid 938-942 or Scalp the range. http://twitpic.com/6m62t - Done for day at +7.50 pts
2:01 PM - Negative $TICK divergence throughout the last hour http://twitpic.com/6m679
Report on Employment Situation out at 7:30 AM tomorrow. Going forward, I'd like to see price remain above 916.50 on a Closing basis for Bulls to remain in control. We also need to be mindful of overhead resistance at 950. Following two charts show the "big picture" structure I'm working with.
ES (60-Min)
ES (Daily)
