Thursday 04/01/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
Some nice action in the S&Ps today. As I mentioned in yesterday's review, we've observed Responsive Buying and Responsive Selling all week, and today was much of the same. Responsive Sellers quickly rejected higher prices, and once price moved below 1167, Responsive Buyers quickly pushed price back up. 1167-1169 was the Area of heavy acceptance this week. This up move is losing momentum though. The previous week's high was 1176.50, and the high for this week so far is only one handle higher at 1177.50. If price gets below 1158, and longs begin liquidating, we could easily get a pullback to the 1139-1141 area.

Btw, I've received questions regarding the arrows on the 5-Minute charts I post in the daily reviews. To clarify, the arrows are NOT plotted automatically. I manually place those arrows on the charts where I see good setups (a lot of times within the Key Areas posted the night before). Some of the arrows are actual trades that I took (e.g. I shorted 1177 and went long at 1167 today). But not all of them are my trades. I don't plot all my trades on the 5-minute chart; just the setups. Hope that clears things up.

The markets are closed tomorrow for Good Friday, so enjoy the day off and have a good weekend!

ES 5-Minute Chart


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart

Thursday 04/01/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
The current range for the WEEK is 12.50 points (1161.25-1173.75)! We've built acceptance between 1167.75 and 1169.75, and every move above and below that area has been met with Responsive Buying and Responsive Selling. We need a catalyst to drive this market outside of this range, at which point, I would anticipate some Initiative Activity. Tomorrow could be a trend day when price finally pushes to 1150 or 1183...or we could just get more of the same (chop). When everyone gets complacent (comfortable) within the current range, we'll probably get a surprise move that will force one party (either buyers or sellers) to liquidate their positions. As long as we hold above 1163, my bias remains (cautiously) to the upside. Trade well!

Econ Data
Motor Vehicle Sales, Jobless Claims at 7:30 AM (CT), Construction Spending and ISM Mfg Index at 9:00 AM (CT), EIA Natural Gas Report at 9:30 AM (CT).

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Thursday 03/25/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
The Key Levels provided nice entry points (I shorted 1175.25). We only got one Close above 1175.50 on the 5-minute chart; and even then it was only a tick above 75.50. Prices above 1175.50 were rejected all morning. After failing to facilitate trade above 1175, the only logical direction was Down. We got rotation in the Key Areas on the way down and observed initiative selling below 1169 in the last hour of trade. Tomorrow's GDP number should provide clarity on direction, but I would say Bears shouldn't get too comfortable just yet.

ES 5-Minute Chart


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart

Thursday 03/25/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
We saw Responsive Buyers defend the 1161 level on Wednesday and we continued to build acceptance in the 1163-1164 area. This High Volume Area can be used to establish short-term bias; bullish above it, and bearish below it. My Bull/Bear Line in Sand is 1157.50; we could get heavier liquidation below that level. Market internals as well as the Russel and S&P400 Midcaps closed near their lows, which is at the very least a caution flag. On the upside, if price remains above 1163 overnight, we could blow right through the Overnight Resistance; and test the High of Year. Be careful around the 1171.25 area; if we get up there, I would anticipate them to run the stops, followed by a quick move down. It's just a scenario I'm prepared for; doesn't mean I "expect" it to play out exactly like that, but just something to keep in mind (e.g. scale out of Longs there). The next big level after 1171.25 is 1182-1183.

Econ Data
Jobless Claims at 7:30 AM (CT), EIA Natural Gas Report at 9:30 AM(CT), Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies to the House Committee on Financial Services about the Fed's exit strategy at 9:00 AM (CT).

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Thursday 03/18/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
Price bounced off the Initial Support area in overnight trading, and stopped 1 tick ahead of the Overnight Resistance Level after the open. From there, we got a lot of narrow range chop, but price remained below 1162.50 and then broke below the IB Low. From there, we got a minor bounce ahead of Initial Support, which was sold into pushing price 1 tick below Initial Support. Price formed a double-bottom at Initial Support and went on to test the IB Low and ended up closing above the mid-point and VPOC, but below the Overnight Resistance. The fact that price couldn't even test the overnight resistance during the day session signals weakness. Market internals closed on weakness as well, and we may finally get that pullback everyone's been anticipating for days now. Price is currently in a neutral area, and built some acceptance in the 1159-1161 area over the last two days. I'll chalk up the choppy price action this week to quadruple witching and the fact that we're at new yearly highs, so consolidation is to be expected. Next week should be more happening (keeping fingers crossed)!

ES 5-Minute Chart


ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart

Thursday 03/18/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
The Bull/Bear Line in Sand for tomorrow is 1154. Based on the recent price action and market internals/breadth, the near-term bias is Bullish. The challenge in this kind of market is to keep the personal bias in check, and read the market with an open mind. Can the market fall 15-20 points tomorrow? Sure could, but I'm not going to close my mind to a possible move into the upper 1170s. Both scenarios are possible, and as day traders, we must keep the bias in check and trade what's in front of us. If you get good trade location on your Short positions, take advantage of it and try to hold for a larger move down. Tomorrow's focus will be the Jobless Claims data out at 7:30 AM (CT); so the best trade location may only be available in pre-market.

Econ Data
Consumer Price Index and Jobless Claims at 7:30 AM (CT), Leading Indicators and Philadelphia Fed Survey at 9:00 AM (CT), and EIA Natural Gas Report at 9:30 AM (CT).

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Thursday 03/11/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
What a day...Range-bound chop for better part of the day, followed by an unexpected rally into the close. Now, although I didn't anticipate the rally, I did manage to pick up on some clues that kept me from shorting it. Here's why I didn't short into the afternoon up move:
1. on the pullback, Price remained above mid-point
2. Price rejected VWAP (Support)
3. ES rebounded back to trading above the Initial Balance (1st Hr) High
4. Positive NYSE TICK Divergence
5. 1139-1140 was an area of acceptance

I put together the Levels last night in a hurry, but they still worked out pretty well and helped me obtain good trade location. The arrows marked on the 5-min chart for today are the trade sequences I took (Short, Long, Short). Lets hope the Retail Sales data out tomorrow morning shakes things up and brings some volatility back into the market.

In other news, I attended my last lecture at DePaul tonight! I have final exams next week and then I'm DONE! This past year has been really tough with full-time work, full-time school (5 classes), trading, blog, etc. and wrapping up school is such a relief! After next week, I'll finally be able to get some sleep :-)

ES 5-Minute Chart


ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart

Thursday 03/11/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
Due to homework & final exams, I didn't have time to prepare the detailed Key Levels chart tonight. I did a quick analysis of the June S&P E-Mini Futures and came up with the following S/R Levels:

Support: 1133.75, 1128.50, 1121.25, 1117.50 (open gap), 1114.25-1115.50, 1109-1111.

Resistance: 1139.25, 1141-1143, 1146.25-1148.25, 1152, 1156, 1160

Anticipating a pickup in volatility due to several Econ Releases out tomorrow morning (catalysts). Don't forget to rollover to the June contract (ESM10)!

Econ Data
International Trade amd Jobless Claims at 7:30 AM (cst), EIA Natural Gas Report at 9:30 AM (cst), 30-Yr Bond Auction at 12:00 PM (cst), Fed Balance Sheet and Money Supply at 3:30 PM (cst).

Thursday 03/04/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
The best opportunities of the day were early in the morning; Shorting the Strong Resistance area, and entering Long after Responsive Buyers came in and quickly rejected the 1115.50 Level (overnight support area). Following those two swings, Price remained in a narrow 4-5 point range for better part of the day. The range trade and real-time support/resistance levels were posted on Twitter/StockTwits in real-time. I also noted an improvement in market internals, and posted about it on Twitter/StockTwits before noon (cst). Market internals continued improving into the afternoon, and we got a move out of the range (value). Overall, a choppy day, but what do you expect when price is so close to a big area of resistance ahead of non-farm payroll data?

ES 5-Minute Chart


ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart

Thursday 03/04/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
I'm going to continue using 1112.50 as my Bull/Bear Line in the Sand; bullish above and bearish below it. 1113.75-1114.25 is a heavy area of acceptance this week, and so far, we've bounced a couple of points off 1114. Anticipating Responsive Buyers to defend that 1112.50 area on first touch. If that fails, we could see some heavier liquidation and a quick move down to the 1108 area, followed by a test of the 1103-1105 area. On the upside, I would expect rotation in the 1122.50-1124.50 area. If we break-out above yesterday's high (1125), we could get a fast move up to 1129 as Shorts cover their positions. Upside target above 1125 is 1132. The Jobless Claims data and the Pending Home Sales Index are market moving econ releases; so be careful around that time. Trade well!

Econ Data
Jobless Claims and Productivity and Costs at 7:30 AM (cst), Factory Orders and Pending Home Sales Index at 9:00 AM (cst), EIA Natural Gas Report at 9:30 AM (cst).

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Thursday 02/25/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis & A Word on NYSE TICK

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
What a day -- the ES fell 17 handles from the overnight high of 1101.50, and did a complete reversal, and then some, hitting a high of 1103 (+18.5 points from Low of Day) and closing on strength at 1102.25. Unbelievable day, and no doubt a lot of Shorts got squeezed, but there were some hints that kept me on the right side of the market. At 9:40 AM (cst), I posted "Doesn't 'feel' like a trend down day (yet)" and at 11:56 AM (cst), I posted "1087.75-1088 = Support", and began scalping ES on the Long side -- Bear in mind, I still kept my risk on the Longs very tight because the way I was reading the market, a break of 1087 could have resulted in a swift move down to 1084-1085. Between 10:40 and 10:56 AM (cst), ES attempted to test the 1084.50 Low of Day, and failed to do so (hint #1). From 11:08 AM (cst), price remained above the day session mid-point and VWAP (hint #2). After 11:40 AM (cst), Price continued to test and poke above the IB High (hint #3). Looking at the 30-Minute Volume Profile chart, I was seeing acceptance in the 1087.25-1088.25 area (hint #4). By the way, none of what I'm posting here is hindsight analysis; all of this was observed and acted upon in real-time. If you noticed something in real-time that I haven't covered here, please post it in the Comments.

A Word on NYSE TICK
A lot of traders use the NYSE TICK in their trading, and a popular strategy is to fade the TICK extremes (Sell +1200 readings, Buy -1200 readings) and to identify divergences (price makes lower low while TICK makes higher low, etc). Blindly entering trades on TICK Divergences or TICK Extremes is not a viable strategy, and may eventually frustrate you to the point where you ditch the NYSE TICK all together -- which IMHO, would be a mistake because I believe the NYSE TICK is a valuable measure of broader market participation. One of the Keys to using the TICK is to be aware of the Context and the Significant support/resistance areas, and then identify divergences or extremes once price reaches a pre-defined support/resistance area. Check out the 2-minute chart of the ES and NYSE TICK below. Notice how we got a TICK Extreme at 12:50 PM (cst) -- TICK hit a high of +1258, while price hit a high of 1092.50. If you blindly shorted there (I'm sure several traders did), you got stopped out pretty quickly (I'm assuming you use stops). Now move a few bars to the right, and you'll notice another TICK Extreme at 1:02 PM (cst) -- TICK hit a high of 1299 while price hit a high of 1098.50. What's the difference between the two extremes? Look at the Volume! Exhaustion moves happen on High Volume as traders on the other side get flushed out of their positions. This is a TICK Extreme fade trade that could have been taken (I shorted this area and covered at 1096). Trading the TICK is certainly not a science, and more of an Art and like every other indicator or piece of market information, it requires screen time. With enough screen time, you could internalize the patterns of the TICK, and develop a "feel" -- this is difficult to quantify, but in the end, it could keep you out of losing trades or give you a heads-up when the market isn't behaving the way it normally does. I hope you found this information to be of some value, and that it helps you to stay on the right side of the market. At the very least, I hope you won't blindly fade the TICK Extremes.

ES/NYSE TICK 2-Minute Chart


ES 5-Minute Chart


ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart

Thursday 02/25/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
With Wednesday being another inside day, the Key Levels haven't really changed much but there's a higher probability of a break-out from the current Range (range contraction leads to range expansion). My bias is bearish below 1102 and bullish above it. A break of 1090.25 could trigger heavier liquidation and drive price down to the mid 1070s. A break-out above 1105.50 could take us to the 1118-1121 area. My only other concern is that with GDP and Existing Home Sales data out on Friday, we may not get clear direction until then. Keep it tight, stick with momentum, and do not add to a losing position (with strict risk parameters and discipline, averaging into a position works OK on range-bound days).

Econ Data
Durable Goods Orders and Jobless Claims at 7:30 AM (cst), Ben Bernanke speaks at 8:00 AM (cst), FHFA House Price Index at 9:00 AM (cst), EIA Natural Gas Report at 9:30 AM (cst)

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Thursday 02/18/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
The Key Levels and Scenario played out beautifully today! The 1094.25-1096.25 area even provided a nice bounce on the after-hours Fed rate announcement, which caused the ES to dump 10.25 points in a single 5-minute bar. I was expecting a pullback in that 1106-1107 area anyway, so I'm not too concerned about the after-hours drop. I see that quick move down as mostly hedging activity and will look towards tomorrow's Cash Open and Initial Balance for clarity on direction. Bias will be Bullish if ES holds 1093 Level in the overnight Globex session.

ES 5-Minute Chart for 02/18/10


ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart for 02/18/10


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart for 02/18/10

Thursday 02/18/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
I was going over some of my posts from December, 2009 and here we are two months later with the S&P 500 trading in the same price area. Check out the Key Levels post for Tuesday 12/15/2009 and Thursday 12/17/2009 -- notice how the Key Levels from then and now coincide. You can also check out the Market Review/Analysis posts for 12/15/09 and 12/17/09 to get an idea of how price reacted last time we were trading in this area. My bias is bullish above 1198.75, bearish below 1094 and neutral to bullish in between. That being said, I'm anticipating rotation in the Strong Support/Resistance Areas regardless of direction.

Econ Data
Producer Price Index and Jobless Claims at 7:30 AM (cst), Leading Indicators and Philadelphia Fed Survey at 9:00 AM (cst), EIA Natural Gas Report at 9:30 AM (cst), and EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:00 AM (cst).

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Thursday 02/11/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
Although the day began with some choppy price action, price respected the Key Levels very nicely, and put in a solid up trend once it broke above the IB High. As I mentioned earlier this week, that 1054-1055 area was Key Support for Bulls, and the Low of Day was 1057.50. The afternoon was a bit frustrating since price just consolidated near the highs. 1072.25 was identified as a Key Pivot/Support Level and I posted about it on Twitter/StockTwits. That Level held all afternoon. Lets see if Bulls can maintain control going into tomorrow.

ES 5-Minute Chart for 02/11/10


ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart for 02/11/10


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart for 02/11/10

Thursday 02/04/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
If you lost a little bit of money today, Relax; days like today are not the norm. If you lost a lot of money on the other hand, take tomorrow off and thoroughly go over your risk management plan, and your execution from today. Today's sell-off was triggered based on concerns over the employment situation and European debt. You could say it was a news induced panic sell-off. Despite the news and panic selling, most of the Key Support Levels still managed to provide a pause in the selling, and some rotation -- so even if you took a counter-trend Long at Key Support, you had plenty of time to move the stop to break-even and bail on the trade. We filled two open gaps today, 1070.50 and 1061.75. 1059.75 was identified as a Strong Support Level in Monday night's post.

If you learned any lesson today, or would like to share a thought, I encourage you to post in the Comments section.

ES 5-Minute Chart for 02/04/10

Thursday 02/04/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
Inside days account for around 10% of all trading days in the S&Ps, and are typically followed by range expansion, so that's the anticipation for tomorrow. On the upside, I think we can easily tag the 1105-1107 area, and on the downside 1084-1086 shouldn't be an issue. The day session range on this retracement back up has been around 18-20 points. I'm anticipating the range to be less than that tomorrow due to the Non-farm Payroll release on Friday

Econ Data
Jobless Claims and Productivity and Costs at 7:30 AM (cst), Factory Orders at 9:00 AM (cst), EIA Natural Gas Report at 9:30 AM (cst).

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Thursday 01/28/2010 - Euro FX Futures Review/Analysis

Euro FX (EUR/USD) Futures
Starting to get a hang of the rotations in 6E. Overall, this contract trades very nicely. It's a relatively thin market so it overshoots Support/Resistance areas sometimes, but those are also good opportunities to get into a trade and scale out on the rotation.

EC/6E 5-Minute Chart for 01/28/10

Thursday 01/28/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
Some great setups in the ES today. I was busy with work most of the day and only executed two trade sequences: Long at 1076.75 on the pullback around 11:45 AM (cst), and then Short at 1086 near the end of day. I should have Shorted higher in the 1088 area as I posted on Twitter, but I was busy trading the 6E and can only focus on one instrument at any given time since I'm trading off a laptop.

ES 5-Minute Chart for 01/28/10

Thursday 01/28/2010 - Key S/R Levels (Brief)

Again, too busy with school and don't have time for a full post with charts.

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
In the ES, the areas of Resistance are 1107.25-1109, 1114-1115.25, 1119-1122, and finally 1127. Areas of Support are 1090.50-1091.50, 1086-1088, and 1080-1082.

Euro FX (EUR/USD) Futures
In the 6E, overnight resistance is at 1.4043-4055, followed by 4072-4082, 4100-4110, 4145-4160.

Econ Data
Durable Goods Orders and Jobless Claims at 7:30 AM (cst), EIA Natural Gas Report at 9:30 AM (cst).