Thursday 03/04/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
The best opportunities of the day were early in the morning; Shorting the Strong Resistance area, and entering Long after Responsive Buyers came in and quickly rejected the 1115.50 Level (overnight support area). Following those two swings, Price remained in a narrow 4-5 point range for better part of the day. The range trade and real-time support/resistance levels were posted on Twitter/StockTwits in real-time. I also noted an improvement in market internals, and posted about it on Twitter/StockTwits before noon (cst). Market internals continued improving into the afternoon, and we got a move out of the range (value). Overall, a choppy day, but what do you expect when price is so close to a big area of resistance ahead of non-farm payroll data?

ES 5-Minute Chart


ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart

Thursday 03/04/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
I'm going to continue using 1112.50 as my Bull/Bear Line in the Sand; bullish above and bearish below it. 1113.75-1114.25 is a heavy area of acceptance this week, and so far, we've bounced a couple of points off 1114. Anticipating Responsive Buyers to defend that 1112.50 area on first touch. If that fails, we could see some heavier liquidation and a quick move down to the 1108 area, followed by a test of the 1103-1105 area. On the upside, I would expect rotation in the 1122.50-1124.50 area. If we break-out above yesterday's high (1125), we could get a fast move up to 1129 as Shorts cover their positions. Upside target above 1125 is 1132. The Jobless Claims data and the Pending Home Sales Index are market moving econ releases; so be careful around that time. Trade well!

Econ Data
Jobless Claims and Productivity and Costs at 7:30 AM (cst), Factory Orders and Pending Home Sales Index at 9:00 AM (cst), EIA Natural Gas Report at 9:30 AM (cst).

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Thursday 02/04/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
If you lost a little bit of money today, Relax; days like today are not the norm. If you lost a lot of money on the other hand, take tomorrow off and thoroughly go over your risk management plan, and your execution from today. Today's sell-off was triggered based on concerns over the employment situation and European debt. You could say it was a news induced panic sell-off. Despite the news and panic selling, most of the Key Support Levels still managed to provide a pause in the selling, and some rotation -- so even if you took a counter-trend Long at Key Support, you had plenty of time to move the stop to break-even and bail on the trade. We filled two open gaps today, 1070.50 and 1061.75. 1059.75 was identified as a Strong Support Level in Monday night's post.

If you learned any lesson today, or would like to share a thought, I encourage you to post in the Comments section.

ES 5-Minute Chart for 02/04/10

Thursday 02/04/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
Inside days account for around 10% of all trading days in the S&Ps, and are typically followed by range expansion, so that's the anticipation for tomorrow. On the upside, I think we can easily tag the 1105-1107 area, and on the downside 1084-1086 shouldn't be an issue. The day session range on this retracement back up has been around 18-20 points. I'm anticipating the range to be less than that tomorrow due to the Non-farm Payroll release on Friday

Econ Data
Jobless Claims and Productivity and Costs at 7:30 AM (cst), Factory Orders at 9:00 AM (cst), EIA Natural Gas Report at 9:30 AM (cst).

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Thursday 12/03/2009 - Market Review

I noticed the Blog has gained a few new followers. Welcome to the Blog and I hope we can collaborate and improve each others understanding of the markets!

It's worthwhile to go over today's market action to connect the Key Levels posted last night with today's price action. Lets start from the open and go through the day step by step (this is an exercise I do everyday on my own after market close):

Market gapped up 2.75 pts at the open and extended beyond the Globex High and hit 1117, which served as resistance and we got a strong rejection at that level.

Selling pressure accelerated once price broke down through the mid-point and VWAP (Vol Trend).

1108 was posted as the Key Initial Support level, and price bounced up from 1108.25 to 1111.50 (3.25 pts).

Break of 1108.25 took us to 1105.50 (2.75 pts). 1105 was also posted as a level, and my bias was bearish below 1105. The first bounce off 1105.50 took us to 1109.25 (3.75 pts).

Price rotated down again and hit 1105.25 (1105 level working beautifully here). This time we got a strong bounce up to 1110.75 (5.50 pts).

1111 area was the Mid-Point and price remained below this area rest of the day. One of my trading rules states: "If Price is less than Mid-Point; Only take Shorts unless Price is rejecting a lower area of support such as the Lower Value Area."

Price was then range-bound between 1107.25-1110.75 (3.50 pts). We had a cluster of VPOCs in the 1107-1108 area.

Around 2:20 PM (cst), price broke down through the first hour low on accelerated momentum. Last night's post called for a bounce on first touch at 1100.25, but given the time of day (late afternoon), I'm not surprised that we did not get a bounce. Typically, if price is below the initial balance (1st hour low) in the afternoon, it has a tendency to close at or near the lows.

The next level after 1100.25 was 1097, and we closed at 1097.50. Price is currently trading at 1098.50 in the Globex session.

Review the following annotated 5-minute chart and see how the day played out. If today's price action surprised you, then it could be a sign that you need to come better prepared. I hope this post clarifies some of the concepts I utilize, and connects the nightly key levels to actual price action.

ES 5-Minute Day Session Chart for 12/03/09

Key Levels and Scenarios (S&P 500) for Thursday 12/03/2009

E-Mini S&P500
I was busy last night and wasn't able to post the key levels and scenarios, but my bias has been bullish and we tagged the 1115 level that I mentioned in my last post from Monday night. At this point, I still don't see any sign of weakness in the S&P. For the past three days, prices have either remained in the upper half of the previous session's range, or extended to the upside. As I type this (12:30 AM CST), ES is trading at 1114.25 (1111.50 is near-term support over-night now), building value above Wednesday's VPOC. My current bias is bullish above 1108. Shorts are counter-trend at the moment.

Jobless Claims and Productivity and Costs data out at 7:30 AM (CST), ISM Non-Mfg Index at 9:00 AM (CST) tomorrow morning. To top it off, both Ben Ber"tank"e and Barack Obama, speak sometime tomorrow which could move the markets. Be careful...and do NOT fight the momentum! If you are going to enter counter-trend trades, initiate them at Key Levels so you can bail at close to break-even if you happen to be on the wrong side of the market.

Bullish Scenario (above 1108)
1108-1109 is initial support, and I'm anticipating a bounce on first touch. Below that, we have a VPOC Cluster in the 1105-1107 area, and then strong support in the 1100.25-1102.25 area. On the upside, some chop/rotation in the 1115 area wouldn't be a surprise. Beyond 1115, I would scale out of Longs in the 1117.75 area, and move stop-loss on remainder to 1115 at that point. We also have that 1122 level above that's just begging to be tagged!

Bearish Scenario (below 1105)
Support levels are defined, and I'm staying out of shorts between 1108 and 1115. I would consider shorts on an extension to the 1119.75-1122 area. If we break below 1105, the 1108 level could then act as short-term resistance. Shorting the bounce at that point in anticipation of a move down to test the 1101-1102 area would be a decent play. There is a cushion of support from 1108 all the way down to 1100.25, with 1100.25-1101.50 being pretty strong. Anticipate a bounce on first touch, which means it's a good place to scale out of shorts and then re-load if price remains below 1108. The bounce could be pretty damn strong though, so be careful initiating shorts on a bounce at 1100.25. By that, I mean, don't re-load at 1103; wait for the momentum to stall on the bounce as price could easily retrace back to 1108.

ES - Daily Bar Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Wed. 09/02/2009 - Consolidation Day (Range Bound)

Consolidation day, which was expected, after yesterday's down trend from the open. Price remained within the over-night range all day. Best to fade the range extremes or just sit back and wait for a directional move out of the range. Jobless Claims data at 7:30 AM (central) tomorrow morning should provide some volatility and direction.

ES - 5-Min Chart for Wednesday 09/02/2009

Thursday 06/04/09 - Specialize in ONE Market

I didn't post anything on Tuesday because the day was spent on group trading education/mentoring with a couple of friends at my place.

Yesterday, I got the genius idea of trying out the mini-Russel 2000 futures (TF), and I thought I could just pull up some TF charts; adjust the time-frame on the tickbar charts and dive right in. Talk about being naive! The TF moves has its own rhythm compared to the ES, and over the course of the last few months, my mind has been trained to be in sync with the moves on the ES. I traded the TF in the morning, and was down -1.2 pts, which isn't too bad, but I quickly learned that you can't just jump into a new market/index without some research and dedicated screen time. Then later in the evening, I happened to be at Barnes & Noble and was browsing through John Carter's book in which he states that newer traders should start with the Mini-Dow (YM) since it's an "easier" instrument to trade, and has less professional participation. I figured I'd give it a shot, so I went over the Daily, 60-min, 15-min and 5 min YM charts, and set up my charts to trade the YM this morning. Again; not a great idea. I ended the first hour at break-even and then came to my senses and switched back to trading the S&P500. That was a good call. It was like I was back in my old neighborhood; in familiar territory. I traded the ES from 9:30 AM (central) till about 1 PM and netted +7.50 pts. This little exercise in trading the TF and YM showed me the importance of specializing in ONE market. The ES moves in a certain way, and after watching if for several months I've become comfortable with the way it moves. Over time you get a feel for how a certain market/instrument moves; to the point where you can get a feel for short-term direction just by looking at price action on the DOM. So no more dabbling in other markets trying to find the "easier" one to trade. Here are the Stats from today's trades in the ES:

# of Trades	18
Longs	11
Shorts	7
% Break-Even:	16.67
% Win	66.67
% Loss	16.67
Avg Win	0.85
Avg Loss	-0.92
Largest Win (pts)	2.00
Largest Loss (pts)	-1.50
Total Win (pts)	10.25
Total Loss (pts)	-2.75
Net Gain/Loss (pts)	7.50
ES Daily Range	14.00
P/L as % of Daily Range	53.57

Not sure how many of you use Twitter, but I use it to document my thoughts and what I'm seeing Intraday. I'm also on StockTwits. You can go here: http://stocktwits.com/u/eminiplayer if you'd like to go over my posts and intraday charts from this morning highlighting support/resistance, $TICK Divergence setups, etc. Following are a few of my Twitter posts from today:
10:19 AM - Bulls in control as long as price remains above 835.50 on a 5-min CLOSING basis
10:24 AM - http://twitpic.com/6lok3 Good place to take some profits on Longs $ES_F Also seeing negative $TICK divergence on 1-min
10:27 AM - Shorted the pop into overhead resistance and negative $TICK divergence http://twitpic.com/6lp83
10:59 AM - Trying a scalp short with tight stop-loss here http://twitpic.com/6lr0k
11:02 AM - Out for +2 pts http://twitpic.com/6lr9h
11:16 AM - Some support here http://twitpic.com/6lse9
12:47 PM -$TICK Divergence providing some nice scalps today http://twitpic.com/6lzvp

12:56 PM - 938.50 important area for Longs IMHO
2:00 PM - Prior Resistance, now Support. I would avoid 938-942 or Scalp the range. http://twitpic.com/6m62t - Done for day at +7.50 pts
2:01 PM - Negative $TICK divergence throughout the last hour http://twitpic.com/6m679


Report on Employment Situation out at 7:30 AM tomorrow. Going forward, I'd like to see price remain above 916.50 on a Closing basis for Bulls to remain in control. We also need to be mindful of overhead resistance at 950. Following two charts show the "big picture" structure I'm working with.

ES (60-Min)


ES (Daily)

Thursday 05/07/09 - Pullback on Profit Taking

I was busy with web development again today, and wasn't around to trade the first hour. I placed a few small trades during the course of the day ending up with a net gain of +6.75 points. I had some solid entries but left a lot of profit on the table so I would have to grade my performance as a B- today. This could have easily been a +10-15 pt day. Here's how the stats broke down today:

% Break-Even:	9.09
% Win	72.73
% Loss	18.18
Avg Win	1.16
Avg Loss	-1.25
Largest Win (pts)	2.00
Largest Loss (pts)	-1.50
Total Win (pts)	9.25
Total Loss (pts)	-2.50
Net Gain/Loss (pts)	6.75

A pullback on profit taking was expected so no surprises today. 898 area held support. I'll be keeping an eye at the 894, 887, and 879 areas for support if we head lower tomorrow. On the upside, I would love to see 940! Not really much else to report except that my schedule is working out really well for me and keeping me out of trouble. An update on my friend who's learning how to trade from me: he has been averaging +5 pts per day for the past two weeks, and ended today with a +8 pt gain. Just want to reiterate that I taught him only the basics on price action/trend, and did not put even one indicator on his chart. The results have exceeded my expectations. He has been trading on Infinity's Sim, and will be funding his account in the next month or so. I'm looking forward to this real $ results, and am confident they will be similar to his Sim results since he has the proper mindset, and is using tight risk management in his Sim trading (6-8 tick max stop-loss).

Employment Situation (Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Avg Hourly Earnings, Avg Workweek) released tomorrow morning at 7:30 AM (central)

On to the charts...

ES/$TICK (3-Min) - Gap filled by 9:06 AM.


ES (Daily) - Perspective