Wed. 03/10/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
Price bounced ahead of Overnight Support, and continued moving to the upside in the morning session, followed by range-bound conditions later in the day. ES closed above the mid-point, and close to the Initial Balance High, which I view as indication of continued strength. As I mentioned last night, aside from being overbought and extended, I'm not seeing any signs of weakness yet. At the same time, everyone knows we're due for a pullback, so have to keep the risk on Longs fairly tight up here. I just want the market to resolve this "area" and move on. I don't really care if it moves up or down, just move already!

Rollover
Don't forget to rollover to the June contract (ESM10) tomorrow!

ES 5-Minute Chart

Wed. 03/10/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
I'm busy with final exams/papers/projects (last two weeks of school here), so will keep the post brief. Aside from the market being overbought and extended up here, I'm not seeing any reason to be Bearish just yet. I believe everyone is fully prepared for a pullback, and that could very well be the reason no significant pullback has materialized (too many people shorting & covering up here). The S&P Futures closed on Strength today, and so far we're seeing continuation of that strength in overnight trading. I'm anticipating the 1132.75-1134.75 Area to provide Strong Support if the buying is to continue. My Bull/Bear Line in the Sand is 1132.75; bullish if price is trading above it, and bearish if price is trading below it. Trade well!

Econ Data
Wholesale Trade at 9:00 AM (cst), EIA Petroleum Status Report at 9:30 AM (cst), and Treasury Budget at 1:00 PM (cst).

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Tuesday 02/09/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
The news and rumors out of Europe created some high momentum swings in the market today. I wasn't around for the Long setups, but managed to enter short at 1076.50. I had to run to class so wasn't able to fully capitalize on the move, but to be honest, I wasn't expecting price to go down to 1066.25 and if it weren't for news, I don't think it would have sold off to that level so I'm content with the trade.

Going forward, I'm going to start posting two additional charts in the Daily Review/Analysis posts. First is a 30-min Volume Profile chart, and the second is a Day Session Volume Profile chart. I'm just going to annotate the charts a bit and see if any patterns emerge. If nothing comes of it, I'll stop posting them.

ES 5-Minute Chart for 02/09/10


ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart for 02/09/10


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart for 02/09/10

Friday 01/08/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
Friday was not an easy day to trade and there was a lot of chop in the middle of the day. Despite the lack luster price action, the Scenario and Key Levels played out pretty well. I estimated a 9-12 point reactionary swing at the NFP release, and the Low to High on the NFP reaction came in at 8.25 points. I also mentioned that the IB High/Low is typically set very close to the cash opening price. On Friday, the ES regular trading hours open was at 1134.50, and the IB Low was set 15 minutes later at 1132. We got a strong rejection of the 1132 area, and price ended up retracing up and closing in the Initial Resistance Zone. The fact that this market rallies on bad news should be a tell tale sign of a bull or at least bullish market.

ES 5-Minute Chart for 01/08/10 Includes Overnight Globex

Key S/R Levels (S&P 500 Futures) for Friday 01/08/2010 (Nonfarm Payrolls)

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
The Nonfarm Payrolls data comes out tomorrow morning at 7:30 AM (cst), and NFP days behave in a certain way. First thing you should do is look at past NFP days to get an idea of the typical "behavior". Check the following links for last month's posts for the NFP release:

• Key Levels and Scenarios (S&P 500) for Friday 12/04/2009


• Friday 12/04/2009 - Market Review

NFP days typically consist of two moves; a swing in one direction (reaction) followed by a swing in the other direction. Momentum is high, so be careful fading momentum unless price is at an extreme. Another important point to keep in mind is that typically the Initial Balance High/Low is put in place right around the Cash Open (8:30 AM cst). The typical reactionary swing is 15 points or so; but with the reduced volatility, I'm anticipating a 9-12 point reactionary swing (just an estimate). The Key Levels still apply, but I would look at where price is trading at 7:30 AM, and then rely on a Support/Resistance Zone 9-12 points away from that level. 1127-1128 has been a heavily accepted area over the last week. If that level breaks, we could see some fast liquidation down to the 1118-1119 area.

Econ Data
Employment Situation / Nonfarm Payrolls at 7:30 AM (cst) and Wholesale Trade at 9:00 AM (cst).

ES - Daily Bar Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels