Tuesday 03/30/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
As anticipated, we got an outside day today where the market looked for Buyers below and Sellers above yesterday's balance area of 1167.75-1169. The low volatility may also be due to the holiday week. Responsive Sellers kept price below 1175 and Responsive Buyers pushed price back into Value, and we closed at 1169.25. My bias remains Bullish above 1163.

ES 5-Minute Chart


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart

Tuesday 03/30/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
After Monday's range-bound price action where the market was in balance between 1167.75 and 1169, I'm anticipating an outside day where price may test 1175-1176.50 on the upside and 1160.75-1163.75 on the downside. My Bull/Bear Line in Sand is 1163.25; bullish if price is trading above it, and bearish if price is trading below that level. I anticipate the buying to get shut off by 1181.50 and the Selling to get shut off by 1153.50.

Econ Data
Redbook at 7:55 AM (CT), S&P Case-Shiller HPI at 8:00 AM (CT), Consumer Confidence at 9:00 AM (CT), and State Street Investor Confidence Index at 9:00 AM (CT)

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Tuesday 03/23/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

In last night's post I wrote, "Given the recent strength, I'm anticipating either consolidation or break-out to the upside." -- and we got both today: consolidation followed by a break-out to new yearly highs. The morning consolidation chop was very boring to trade, so kudos to you if you sat through it and were able to take advantage of the late afternoon break-out. Looking at the 1-Minute ES/NYSE-TICK chart, we got positive divergences a few minutes prior to the break-out. We also got positive delta 10 minutes prior to the break-out, with very little selling interest in the 1164.25-1164.75 area. 1170-1170.50 is near-term resistance now. A test of the 1163-1165 wouldn't surprise me. I'm also expecting rotation in the 1170-1180 area; a breakout above that could get us to 1200s in a hurry.

ES 5-Minute Chart


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures

Tuesday 03/23/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
ES is trading just a few points away from its high of year (1165.50), and we could easily test and even break through that level tomorrow. The Nasdaq (NQ) made fresh highs on the year on Monday. The Russel and Dow are also trading close to their highs on the year. There are three scenarios possible here: consolidation, break-out, break-down. Given the recent strength, I'm anticipating either consolidation or break-out to the upside. Based on the current price action, my bias is Bullish. The Bull/Bear Line in Sand is 1153.25; bias would shift to Bearish below that level. We have the Existing Home Sales data out at 9:00 AM (CT); that could be the catalyst that motivates traders to enter the market with some conviction. We are seeing some volatility re-enter the market as well. The day session range over the last two days has been 14.75 points and 15.50 points. Keep that in mind when initiating counter-trend trades, or setting targets for trend trades. Trade well!

Econ Data
Redbook at 7:55 AM (CT), Existing Home Sales at 9:00 AM (CT), Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner testifies before the House Financial Services Committee at 9:00 AM (CT)

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Tuesday 03/16/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
Typical FOMC chop session, with two-sided swings in reaction to the Fed announcement. No surprises, really, and the Key Levels homework definitely helped me obtain better trade location. Once you've traded a few Fed days, they definitely become easier to read and trade. I also began watching Volume Delta today, and it was actually quite helpful. I'll post more about it after I've had more screen time. I'm including an annotated 2-minute ES/NYSE TICK chart again today, in case other traders are curious to see some TICK Divergence setups. Today's price action sets us up nicely for tomorrow. Continuation or pullback? Be prepared for both scenarios!

ES/NYSE TICK 2-Min Chart


ES 5-Minute Chart


ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart

Tuesday 03/16/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
Anticipating the regular range-bound price action ahead of the FOMC Announcement at 1:00 PM (CT). Although ES filled the gap and closed on a bullish note, the Russel (TF) and Nasdaq-100 (NQ) were unable to close their gaps from Friday, which could be viewed as a warning sign since the Russel has been leading the way on this extended up move. My Bull/Bear Line in Sand for tomorrow is 1138. Below 1138, I believe we could break through the 1134-36 Low Volume Area and test the 1131-1132 area. Btw, the reaction to FOMC Announcements typically consists of fast two-sided moves (whipsaw), so if you're risk averse, it's probably best to sit out 20-30 minutes following the announcement. Trade well!

Econ Data
Housing Starts and Import and Export Prices at 7:30 AM (CT), Redbook at 7:55 AM (CT), and FOMC Meeting Announcement at 1:00 PM (CT).

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Tuesday 03/09/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
StockTwits is a great tool to observe crowd behavior among the group of traders who post their market thoughts day in and day out (myself included), and you can see how having a strong bias can have an adverse affect on one's trading. Based on watching the $ES_F stream on StockTwits, you can see that a lot of short-term traders have been entering the market with a decidedly Bearish bias for the past few days. Now, I'm not saying their bias is right or wrong and the S&P 500 could easily pullback 2-3% but shorting every new high on up-trend days too early in the day is not only painful and frustrating but also keeps you out of profitable trade opportunities on the other side. I know that pain/frustration all too well since this used to be a BIG problem for me, and it's something I'm still working on but over time, it has become less of an issue. I wasn't around for the Long entry at Initial Support in the morning due to my daily meetings, but I also didn't enter short until price was trading in the 1142.50-1145 area. Btw, in a trending environment, the Key Levels also serve as potential target areas for trend trades, so in today's case the 1142.50-1144 Resistance Zone was a great place to scale out of Longs. Despite pulling back 9 handles from the day's high (1145.25), ES still managed to close on strength above the Mid-Point and Initial Balance High. At this point, I'm anticipating 1132-1136 to act as Stronger Support, which means if we break that area, we could see momentum pick up to the downside with a test of 1126.

ES 5-Minute Chart


ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart

Tuesday 03/09/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
With Monday being a consolidation day, the Key Levels haven't really changed much. We've built some short-term resistance in the 1138.25-1139.50, but if price gets back up in that area, I would anticipate a break-out above to tag higher resistance levels. In other words, I don't consider 1138.25-1139.50 to be Strong Resistance; it's just an obstacle that the market may have to work through if it moves back up. A pullback to the 1124-1126 area would not affect the near-term bullish bias. Actually, my goal for tomorrow is to trade with no bias, and just go with the momentum. I'll be monitoring price at the Key S/R Levels to gauge market strength/weakness. I'll also be paying attention to the opening gap; I feel the gap could provide short-term directional bias, i.e. we may continue in direction of the gap in the morning session. Come prepared, and trade well!

Econ Data
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales at 6:45 AM (cst), Redbook at 7:55 AM (cst)

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Tuesday 03/02/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
Although I didn't expect ES to tag the Range Extension Area (1122-1123), overall the game plan of Shorting into pops worked fine. ES facilitated trade above 1119 for most of the day, and we got a failed breakout attempt at the overnight high, followed by a move back to the first hour low. 1114.75-1116 is a Low Volume Node (LVN). We may get a quick rejection, or a quick move through that area. The analogy used to describe Low Vole Areas in the book, Mind Over Markets, is of a golf ball hitting a glass window: it either bounces away quickly, or breaks the window and goes right through it. 1112.50 is Support below the LVN.

ES 5-Minute Chart


ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart

Tuesday 03/02/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
I'm anticipating a range-bound rotational day, with minor upside movement tomorrow. My current plan is to short the pops at the Resistance Areas above. There's a high probability of an inside day, and I'm expecting the 1103.50 Level to hold. The 1103.50 level is also my Bull/Bear Line in the Sand to establish bias (bullish above, bearish below). The upside target on a break above 1115.50 is 1119.75. Trade well!

Econ Data
Motor Vehicle Sales (pre-market), Redbook at 7:55 AM (cst),

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Tuesday 02/23/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
The Key Levels and Scenario worked out great! Once price broke below 1103, a test of the 1097-1099 area was expected and that played out well. Every time we broke through an Area of Support, it then became Resistance and provided low-risk Short entries. The 1091 area proved to be solid support remainder of the day, and provided several low-risk Long entries.

ES 5-Minute Chart for 02/23/10


ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart for 02/23/10


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart for 02/23/10

Tuesday 02/23/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
We're close to an inflection point here; either the market breaks out above 1113 and tags the 1120-1125 area, or we break down below 1096 and tests the low to mid 1080s. I don't know if that will happen tomorrow or the day after, but I'm anticipating the move to materialize sometime this week. My near-term bias is bullish above 1097, and bearish below it. Price needs to get above 1109.50 for further upside momentum, or we could easily rotate down to the low 1100s again, with a test of the high 1090s. Back and forth movement is typical as price gets closer to an inflection point; since it's a battle between Buyers and Sellers. Be flexible and nimble -- we could get fast moves in both directions. Don't add to losing positions here, and try to stay on the side of Momentum.

Econ Data
Redbook at 7:55 AM (cst), S&P Case-Shiller HPI at 8:00 AM (cst), State Street Investor Confidence Index and Consumer Confidence at 9:00 AM (cst).

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Wed. 02/17/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
The Scenario posted last night ("Expecting two-sided moves, and an overall range-bound day tomorrow") worked out well today. I was hoping we would break above 1100, but then again, we've now put in four consecutive Up days with Closes near the High of Day. Perhaps this upside reversal is getting a bit tired and could use a little breather -- I just thought we'd get the breather after tagging the 1107.50 area.

ES 5-Minute Chart for 02/17/10


ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart for 02/17/10


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart for 02/17/10

Wed. 02/17/2010 - Crude Oil Futures Review/Analysis

Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures
Range-bound day in Crude, but the Key Levels worked out fairly well.

CL 5-Minute Chart for 02/17/10

Wed. 02/17/2010 - Crude Oil Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures
Very short on time today so put these together in a hurry -- lets see how they play out.

CL - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Wed. 02/17/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
We've had three consecutive positive days with price closing at or near the High of Day. Typically, I would look for consolidation but if we get positive Econ Data tomorrow morning, we could easily break through 1100. I'm anticipating the Buying to shut off in the 1106-1107.50 Area. Expecting two-sided moves, and an overall range-bound day tomorrow. The pre-market activity on the Econ releases will also provide some reference points and near-term direction.

Econ Data
Housing Starts and Import and Export Prices at 7:30 AM (cst), Redbook at 7:55 AM (cst), Industrial Production at 8:15 AM (cst), FOMC Minutes and Treasury Budget at 1:00 PM (cst)

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Tuesday 02/09/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
The news and rumors out of Europe created some high momentum swings in the market today. I wasn't around for the Long setups, but managed to enter short at 1076.50. I had to run to class so wasn't able to fully capitalize on the move, but to be honest, I wasn't expecting price to go down to 1066.25 and if it weren't for news, I don't think it would have sold off to that level so I'm content with the trade.

Going forward, I'm going to start posting two additional charts in the Daily Review/Analysis posts. First is a 30-min Volume Profile chart, and the second is a Day Session Volume Profile chart. I'm just going to annotate the charts a bit and see if any patterns emerge. If nothing comes of it, I'll stop posting them.

ES 5-Minute Chart for 02/09/10


ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart for 02/09/10


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart for 02/09/10

Tuesday 02/02/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
Price not only held above Initial Support in the overnight Globex session as well as at the Cash Open, but also blew right through the Initial Resistance area, which was indicative that Buyers were in control. Due to my schedule, I wasn't around to take advantage of the Buying opportunities at the open or on the pullback around 10:15 AM (cst). My market reads were good today, and I avoided Shorting too early. I posted the following on StockTwits at 10:37 AM (cst): "Not shorting this here -- expecting 97-98 area to get tagged later today. Better area to short, IMHO". My goal was to be patient and wait for price to get to my area. I entered short at 1099 with a 1 pt stop at 12:55 PM (cst). I only took 1-2 ticks of heat on the trade (benefit of entering at the edge). Around 1 PM, I had to leave for class so ended up scratching the trade -- 20 minutes later price hit my target of 1096. Oh well -- there will be plenty more trades and I am essentially trading with a handicap right now (at my day job, on a laptop and mobile air-card), so I'm thinking (hoping) things will only get better when I go full-time. Had a couple of quick scalps in 6E to balance out my lack of activity in the ES and that was my day. I have to admit I do find strong trend days like today tougher to trade as compared to range-bound/rotational days -- like Monday.

How was your day? Post in the comments!

ES 5-Minute Chart for 02/02/10

Tuesday 02/02/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
1081.25-1083.00 was a heavily accepted area today, but overall, the move up was on below average volume. My bias is bullish above 1079, neutral between 1071.75-1079, and bearish below. I'm expecting tomorrow to be a more challenging trading day compared to today, and my plan is to enter the market with NO bias at all. After today's inside day, I'm expecting range expansion tomorrow, and don't plan on fading the short-term momentum unless we're in a Strong Support/Resistance area such as 1096-1098 on the upside and 1066-1068 on the downside. I'm having a hard time quantifying this, but tomorrow "feels" riskier to me for some reason. Lets see how it plays out!

Econ Data
Redbook at 7:55 AM (cst), Pending Home Sales Index at 9:00 AM (cst), Tim Geithner and Paul Volcker scheduled to speak at 9:00 AM (cst). Might be best to sit out the first hour, let the Initial Balance develop and then put some trades on with more information on hand.

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Tuesday 01/26/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
We got the bounce I was looking for in that 1080-1086 area today. Other than that, I'm really liking the volatility and hope 20-30 pt daily ranges become the norm. Overall, some very nice moves in the market today with rotation in key areas. Check the annotated 10-min chart to see how the Levels played out.

ES 10-Minute Chart for 01/26/10