Thursday 03/11/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
What a day...Range-bound chop for better part of the day, followed by an unexpected rally into the close. Now, although I didn't anticipate the rally, I did manage to pick up on some clues that kept me from shorting it. Here's why I didn't short into the afternoon up move:
1. on the pullback, Price remained above mid-point
2. Price rejected VWAP (Support)
3. ES rebounded back to trading above the Initial Balance (1st Hr) High
4. Positive NYSE TICK Divergence
5. 1139-1140 was an area of acceptance

I put together the Levels last night in a hurry, but they still worked out pretty well and helped me obtain good trade location. The arrows marked on the 5-min chart for today are the trade sequences I took (Short, Long, Short). Lets hope the Retail Sales data out tomorrow morning shakes things up and brings some volatility back into the market.

In other news, I attended my last lecture at DePaul tonight! I have final exams next week and then I'm DONE! This past year has been really tough with full-time work, full-time school (5 classes), trading, blog, etc. and wrapping up school is such a relief! After next week, I'll finally be able to get some sleep :-)

ES 5-Minute Chart


ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart

Thursday 03/11/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
Due to homework & final exams, I didn't have time to prepare the detailed Key Levels chart tonight. I did a quick analysis of the June S&P E-Mini Futures and came up with the following S/R Levels:

Support: 1133.75, 1128.50, 1121.25, 1117.50 (open gap), 1114.25-1115.50, 1109-1111.

Resistance: 1139.25, 1141-1143, 1146.25-1148.25, 1152, 1156, 1160

Anticipating a pickup in volatility due to several Econ Releases out tomorrow morning (catalysts). Don't forget to rollover to the June contract (ESM10)!

Econ Data
International Trade amd Jobless Claims at 7:30 AM (cst), EIA Natural Gas Report at 9:30 AM (cst), 30-Yr Bond Auction at 12:00 PM (cst), Fed Balance Sheet and Money Supply at 3:30 PM (cst).

Wed. 02/10/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
Yes, the volume was thin, but I thought it was a great day for active day traders. So far, we've continuously seen rejection of the 1055 area, which means most traders are expecting that level to hold. But considering how many times price has already bounced off that area, I would be a little skeptical if price headed down there again. We could get a quick flush down to the 1043s if that area doesn't hold next time around. Based on the price action so far, a push up to the 1085 area wouldn't be too surprising. There are a couple of Resistance Zones along the way that we have to deal with -- but I'm no longer viewing those areas as strong obstacles. A little more positive news, and we could get there in a hurry. We're not seeing a Change in Trend just yet, and looking at the Big Picture, the trend is still down with consolidation in the 1053-1070 area. 1053-1055 is the area to watch if Bulls are to maintain control.

ES 5-Minute Chart for 02/10/10


ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart for 02/10/10


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart for 02/10/10

Tuesday 01/12/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
The Key Levels posted last night provided great trade location today. You made out quite well even if you blindly went Long at the Support Zones and Shorted the Resistance Levels. That 1127-1129 was a "must-buy" area on first touch. 1128.50 is an important High Volume node on the larger time-frame. If you didn't go Long around 1128, you have to ask yourself "what was the risk?" -- the answer is 2 points, tops! Check out the annotated chart to see how the levels played out.

ES 5-Minute Chart for 01/12/10

Key Support/Resistance Levels (S&P 500 Futures) for Tuesday 01/12/2010

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
After the weak close below the mid-point today, it's no surprise that we're seeing the same theme continue into the overnight session. 1142.50 is the near-term overnight resistance, and we have a stronger resistance zone above that (1144.25-1146.25). Below, we have strong support in the 1136.50 area, and I'm anticipating a bounce on first touch. Same goes for the 1131.50 and 1127.50 areas; anticipating price to pause/bounce in those areas. My bias is bearish below 1146.25, neutral between 1146.25 and 1148 and cautiously bullish above 1148 with an eye to the upside resistance zones to exit Longs or initiate Shorts. If we get a sell-off tomorrow, watch the 1127-1129 support area -- If that breaks, I'm anticipating heavier liquidation.

Btw, I want to clarify that the purpose of the Key Levels is NOT to Predict future price action! The Levels serve as a sort of Road Map and provide low-risk areas to initiate and exit trades. That's it! I'm not in the Prediction business; and predicting can actually be detrimental to your P&L since you run the risk of defending your prediction instead of analyzing and responding to the Market in real-time. I don't care if the market goes up or down tomorrow; I have no vested interest either way, but I'm prepared to trade it in either direction.

Econ Data
International Trade at 7:30 AM (cst), Redbook at 7:55 AM (cst).

ES - Daily Bar Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Thursday 12/10/2009 - S&P 500 Market Review

E-Mini S&P 500
Last night's Key Levels & Scenarios post nailed today's price action very well! My near-term bias was bullish, and 1091.25-1092.50 was posted as initial support. 1092.50 ended up being the Globex Low. After that, 1099.75-1101.25 was posted as Initial Resistance, and we got nice pullbacks in that zone. I was anticipating a test of those levels in the Globex overnight session, and that panned out as well. Once price broke through that zone (on third attempt), the area of resistance now became an area of Support. We opened above that zone and price hit a high of 1106.25 (1105.50-1108 was posted as Strong Resistance). Price hit that resistance zone and pulled back to 1100 (new support zone). The second push up hit a high of 1105.50 (to the tick) and pulled back into support.

Post in the comments section if you followed my levels & scenarios from last night and let me know how you did! I'd like to know that the Key Level posts are helping other traders bank some $$$

ESZ9 5-Minute Chart for 12/10/09 Includes Overnight Globex

Key Levels & Scenarios (S&P 500) for Thursday 12/10/2009

E-Mini S&P 500 (December Contract)
The levels haven't really changed much, so please refer to yesterday's Key Levels chart.

Upside
1099.75-1101.25 is still the initial resistance zone (good chance to tag it in Globex), with 1105.50-1108 as strong resistance above that area. After that, 1110 is the 100% range extension, which may also act as a temporary barrier to further upside.

Downside
On the down side, the initial support zone is 1091.25-1092.50, followed by 1085 and 1082.50. The support zones haven't really changed much.

Scenario
Today's VPOC was around 1092.50, and we closed on the highs so my near-term bias is bullish. International Trade and Jobless Claims data out at 7:30 am cst tomorrow morning. I'm anticipating a trend day with some conviction on direction. The plan is to be patient, identify the trend, and then enter in direction of trend on pullbacks. Even if the trend is up, taking short trades in the 1107-1110 area is a relatively safe bet. On the other hand, if the trend is down, I'd be cautious entering Long (counter-trend) at initial support (1091.25-1092.50) but anticipate a bounce in the 1082.50-1085 area. It's also contract rollover tomorrow, and volume will gradually shift from the December 2009 contract (ESZ09) to the March 2010 contract (ESH10) over the next couple of days. The support/resistance numbers I've mentioned above are for the December contract.

Wed. 06/10/09 - A lot harder than it looks

A lot of newbies jump into the markets in hopes of "easy money". They read about the (very few) successful traders, their high roller life-styles, ability to work from anywhere in the world, etc. and jump into the market with dreams of grandeur: making thousands or millions while sipping a cocktail on a sandy beach. Trading is so NOT like that. It's an extremely challenging and difficult way to earn a living. It tests you mentally, physically and psychologically all at once. Right when you think you've got it figured out, the market proves you wrong and tests your confidence. The charts are also VERY deceiving since they make it look so EASY in hindsight. Show any newbie a 5-min chart, and they'll be quick to point out how much money you could make (ironically self-acclaimed gurus also use this trick). To cut it short, this shit ain't easy so think more than twice before you jump in, and even then, don't do it for the money.



I made around $80 bucks today, and they were probably the hardest $80 I've made in my life. I was talking to Matt on Yahoo IM when I placed and exited a trade for a profit, and I told him "I've never been so happy making so little" LOL - and trust me, it wasn't because I made a few bucks, I was happy because I finally executed a trade according to plan, and was rewarded for it. I was acting like a bitch most of the day; hesitating on all my setups, not entering the market when I should, etc. I'll go over a few trade setups that I would have taken on Sim but for some reason, did not take now that I'm Live. Here's how my day went...

ES (5-Min) - Pre-Market Short-Sell Setup

I really wanted to short at 950 in pre-market, but hesitated thinking "I should wait till market opens and let the opening range get set". I then thought "I should place a sell stop 2 ticks below the 848.50 level in case we get a sell off at the open"...and even put in the order, but later pulled it out thinking "946.50-947 is support - why short so close to support?". Missed some nice down-side action. Lets move on to the next area...

ES (5-Min) - 9:00 AM Central - Trade #1

Over here, I see that the 944.25 area held and is a potential double-bottom from the over-night price action, and I think we'll rally back up now so I hit it Long at 944.75 with a 1-pt stop-loss; a "low-risk" trade in my mind. Price moved so fast against me, I got 1 tick slippage on my stop taking a 5-tick loss. In hindsight, I should have waited for a bullish candle to close above 947.25 and then looked to perhaps buy a pullback. That should have been an indication that price was set on heading lower, but we've had such choppy price action leading up to today, that the possibility of a strong trend down day didn't really cross my mind. Moving on...

ES (5-Min) - 9:45 AM Central - Not Going Long Now

Plenty of support at 939.50, but after taking that prior loss, I decided to stay away from the Long side. Was looking to enter short on a retracement back up to the 944 area but price didn't get there.

ES (5-Min) - 12:00 PM Central - Treasury Auction Coming Up

At this point, I'm glad I stayed out of Longs and am shocked that ES is testing the 936 area. This was a pretty solid area. I look at the consolidation heading into the treasury auction and place a buy stop at 941.50 and a short-sell stop at 935.50 to catch the move in either direction. At the last minute, I bitch out, and pull my sell-stop order thinking "934.50 is support so why risk 6 ticks just to make 4 ticks".

ES (5-Min) - 12:55 PM Central - WHY did I pull my sell-stop at 935.50?!?

Frustrated as all hell now - Wondering if I'll ever make it in this business. Will 932.00 hold? Holy sh*t! How low can this market go? Don't you shorts eventually have to COVER? Come on!

ES (5-Min) - 1:40 PM Central - Trade #2

OK - finally seeing some signs of a bottom. Would like to short if price gets back to mid-point and/or VWAP but for now, this could be a nice scalp to the Long side. Hammer at the lows followed by a strong bullish candle. Should try a Long at the mid-point of the bull candle. Was tired of missing so many trades, so manned up at entered Long at 930.25 with a 6-tick stop. Price moved up fast to my target 933.25. I was actually expecting price to get back to 935.50 area but I didn't want to over-stay since this was a counter-trend setup. At this point, I was too emotionally and mentally drained so called it a day.

ES (5-Min) - I can't believe price retraced back up to over 940 this late in the day!


What a day! Glad it's over.

ES (Daily) - Bull Flag?


The Daily chart is still looking bullish to me. Looks like a bull flag on the daily, and we now have 4 dojis in a row, and we're at the low end of the up channel. Will we get a break-out tomorrow? Who knows. I certainly don't! Retail Sales and Jobless Claims data out at 7:30 AM (central) tomorrow morning. Trade well!

Tuesday 05/12/09 - Never Be Satisfied

I'll never be 100% satisfied with my results as there's always room for improvement, but I'm particularly disappointed in today's results (+7.00 pts) because of the (easy) opportunities available today. For example, I was short at 911.75 during the open, and exited for ONE point at 910.75 even though the charts gave me absolutely no indication to exit. I was also Long at 899 and 901.50 in the afternoon before ES rocketed back up, and on both occasions I exited for 2-3 ticks. Both of these sequences were "no heat" sequences, meaning price never really went against me so I took no heat on the positions. The quick exits would be fine if my style was closer to Don Miller's or if I was trading his size (30-100+ lots); but neither of those apply to me. I trade 1-2 contracts, and risk 5-8 ticks to make 3-5 Points. The method supports it, and today the market supported it. My style of trading doesn't work too well on narrow range days (working on improving there too btw), which means I need to push the accelerator when the market sets itself up to be in sync with my method. The only excuse I can fall back on today is that I was busy coding an e-Business website enhancement for one of my clients, so I wasn't 100% focused on the market (or the coding for that matter). But deep down I know that's all it is; an excuse, because I should have nailed the opening sequence. I also made the mistake of trying to catch a falling knife which cost me -5.00 pts.

As an intraday trader, I believe I should be able to capture at least 50% of the day's range, so I've added the ES Daily Range and P/L as % of Daily Range to my metrics to track how much of that daily range I'm able to capture. Here's how the Stats broke down for today:

# of Trades	36
% Break-Even:	30.56
% Win	50.00
% Loss	19.44
Avg Win	0.79
Avg Loss	-1.04
Largest Win (pts)	2.00
Largest Loss (pts)	-2.00
Total Win (pts)	14.25
Total Loss (pts)	-7.25
Net Gain/Loss (pts)	7.00
ES Daily Range	19.50
P/L as % of Daily Range	35.90

Looking ahead, bullish bias still intact, in my opinion. Yes, we've moved lower but price was unable to take out the 893.50 low from 05/05/09, and closed above 900. 887-891 area is important. I'll also be watching the 901-904.50 area for support; 910 and 918 areas for resistance. Retail Sales data out at 7:30 AM (central) tomorrow.

ES/$TICK (3-Min) - Gap filled in the first 10 minutes


ES (Daily) - Perspective