Tuesday 03/30/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
As anticipated, we got an outside day today where the market looked for Buyers below and Sellers above yesterday's balance area of 1167.75-1169. The low volatility may also be due to the holiday week. Responsive Sellers kept price below 1175 and Responsive Buyers pushed price back into Value, and we closed at 1169.25. My bias remains Bullish above 1163.

ES 5-Minute Chart


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart

Tuesday 03/30/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
After Monday's range-bound price action where the market was in balance between 1167.75 and 1169, I'm anticipating an outside day where price may test 1175-1176.50 on the upside and 1160.75-1163.75 on the downside. My Bull/Bear Line in Sand is 1163.25; bullish if price is trading above it, and bearish if price is trading below that level. I anticipate the buying to get shut off by 1181.50 and the Selling to get shut off by 1153.50.

Econ Data
Redbook at 7:55 AM (CT), S&P Case-Shiller HPI at 8:00 AM (CT), Consumer Confidence at 9:00 AM (CT), and State Street Investor Confidence Index at 9:00 AM (CT)

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Tuesday 02/23/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
The Key Levels and Scenario worked out great! Once price broke below 1103, a test of the 1097-1099 area was expected and that played out well. Every time we broke through an Area of Support, it then became Resistance and provided low-risk Short entries. The 1091 area proved to be solid support remainder of the day, and provided several low-risk Long entries.

ES 5-Minute Chart for 02/23/10


ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart for 02/23/10


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart for 02/23/10

Tuesday 02/23/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
We're close to an inflection point here; either the market breaks out above 1113 and tags the 1120-1125 area, or we break down below 1096 and tests the low to mid 1080s. I don't know if that will happen tomorrow or the day after, but I'm anticipating the move to materialize sometime this week. My near-term bias is bullish above 1097, and bearish below it. Price needs to get above 1109.50 for further upside momentum, or we could easily rotate down to the low 1100s again, with a test of the high 1090s. Back and forth movement is typical as price gets closer to an inflection point; since it's a battle between Buyers and Sellers. Be flexible and nimble -- we could get fast moves in both directions. Don't add to losing positions here, and try to stay on the side of Momentum.

Econ Data
Redbook at 7:55 AM (cst), S&P Case-Shiller HPI at 8:00 AM (cst), State Street Investor Confidence Index and Consumer Confidence at 9:00 AM (cst).

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Tuesday 01/26/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
We got the bounce I was looking for in that 1080-1086 area today. Other than that, I'm really liking the volatility and hope 20-30 pt daily ranges become the norm. Overall, some very nice moves in the market today with rotation in key areas. Check the annotated 10-min chart to see how the Levels played out.

ES 10-Minute Chart for 01/26/10

Tuesday 01/26/2010 - Euro FX Futures Review/Analysis

Euro FX (EUR/USD) Futures
Although I've only recently started looking into the 6E and have a lot more studying to do, the Key Levels are working out great here. Check the annotated chart to see how the Levels worked out today.

EC/6E 10-Minute Chart for 01/26/10

Tuesday 01/26/2010 - Euro FX Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

Euro FX (EUR/USD) Futures

Econ Data
International

CHF UBS Consumption Indicator at 1:00 AM (cst)

EUR German IFO - Business Climate (JAN), EUR German IFO - Current Assessment (JAN), EUR German IFO - Expectations (JAN), EUR Euro-Zone Current Account n.s.a. (euros) (NOV) at 3:00 AM (cst)

GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ), GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY) and GBP BBA Loans for House Purchase (DEC) at 3:30 AM (cst)

U.S.
Redbook at 7:55 AM (cst), S&P Case-Shiller HPI at 8:00 AM (cst), Consumer Confidence and State Street Investor Confidence Index at 9:00 AM (cst)

EC/6E - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Tuesday 01/26/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
I feel we're due for a bounce here, but in the event that we don't get one, the resulting information will give us a clue as to how weak this market really is. So far, we're holding above that 1086-1088 area, and the plan is still to look for Buying opportunities in the 1080.50-1086 area. Below 1080, we could see a move to the 1060s. On the up side, the plan is to exit or scale out of Longs and begin looking for Selling opportunities in that 1109-1112 area.

Econ Data
Redbook at 7:55 AM (cst), S&P Case-Shiller HPI at 8:00 AM (cst), Consumer Confidence and State Street Investor Confidence Index at 9:00 AM (cst)

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Tuesday 12/29/2009 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
The scenario posted last night called for a trend day, and to trade in direction of the econ news reaction, which in today's case, was clearly down! The plan worked out well and hope you were able to capitalize on the symmetrical down swings in the morning. Btw, 1127 was the Upper Target I posted on Chart.ly on Dec 8th (link to chart) and we hit it today.

I drove out to the suburbs earlier tonight to spend a couple of hours with my 3-yr old nephew and it's already past 12:30 AM so no Key Levels/Scenario post tonight. The key levels posted last night are still in play, except 1123-1125 is an area of resistance now. Bias is bearish below 1125, and bullish above it. Trade well!

ES 5-Minute Chart for 12/29/09 Includes Overnight Globex

Key Support/Resistance Levels (S&P 500 Futures) for Tuesday 12/29/2009

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
I'm anticipating range expansion on the Consumer Confidence econ# out at 9:00 AM (cst) tomorrow morning. Other Econ data to be mindful of is the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index out at 8:00 AM (cst) and Redbook at 7:55 AM (cst). Near-term bias is bullish, but a pullback to 1112 would not surprise me. I'm anticipating a trend day, and will look to the price action following the Consumer Confidence # to set the mood/direction for the remainder of the day. Plan would be to stay in trend trades a bit longer, and exit out of counter-trend trades ASAP. I would caution against shorting above the Initial Balance unless we're at a range extension extreme like 1131.50 or the 1133-1135 area. On the downside, I'm anticipating the 1112 area to hold, even on negative econ data. The dismal volume makes it difficult to judge buyer/seller conviction, but Buyers are clearly in control at the moment.

ES - Daily Bar Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Key Levels (S&P 500) for Tuesday 11/24/2009

E-Mini S&P 500
Monday rally pattern continues, and now 8 of the last 9 Monday's have been bullish! The bullish scenario put together last night worked out well; price made a solid up move over night once it broke above 1095.25. 1102 area acted as resistance over-night, and price rotated back down to 1099.50 and chopped around in that area till 8:10 am (cst). At the moment, the ES is trading at 1101.25 and the immediate price action is pointing towards lower levels. But we had a nice up move today, and price could just chop around and consolidate within Monday's range. High probability of range bound trade tomorrow so be nimble and mindful of your directional bias! GDP data out at 7:30 am (cst), S&P Case-Shiller HPI out at 8:00 am (cst) and Consumer Confidence data out at 9:00 am (cst). If you're new to the S&P futures, I would just sit out the first hour.

Bullish Scenario
We have a cluster of VPOCs from 1105-1106, and price needs to break through that to get some breathing room to the upside. After that, I would anticipate a test of the highs at 1112.25. Price has been knocking around that area for a few days now, and bears are getting too comfortable initiating shorts in that area, so a break-out through that area would not surprise me. Beyond 1112.25, 1116 is do-able with 1117.75-1120 being the range extension target zone. We also have some nice areas of support below. 1099 is near-term support in the Globex session. Below that, 1098 is previous week's mid-point. 1097.50 is the 50% retracement of the current swing on the Hourly chart. 1094 is the initial support level for tomorrow's session. There's a nice cushion of support below us, and I'm not anticipating price just slicing through all that in a single attempt. 1098 could provide a bounce, as well as 1094-1095. Bias shifts to bearish below 1090.25 (open gap).

Bearish Scenario
As you can tell, my current bias is to the Long side, but I must have a bearish scenario in mind since the market can do anything at any time! We have initial resistance in the 1105-1106 area (VPOC cluster), and that could be a good area to take a stab on the short side if momentum is weak. On the downside, if price manages to slip back through 1089, I would shift to shorting the bounces. Downside targets and areas of support are annotated on the Volume Profile chart.

ES - Daily Bar Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Tuesday 05/26/09 - Parabolic Moves Suck

I don't like trading days like today where there's a quick parabolic move followed by a slow grind. I've seen these types of days before so I traded it as I knew best, which was by identifying the consolidation ranges and buying towards the bottom of the range. I'm glad I didn't attempt to Short the move, although I have to say the temptation was most certainly there. The disappointing part is, I had a Buy signal at 885 prior to the Consumer Confidence news, but didn't take it because I saw (perceived) weakness in the Energy sector (XLE). Perhaps I'm putting too much weight in the Energy and Financial sectors, and should just use them as a general barometer, rather than a criteria for trade entry. Any thoughts on this would be appreciated.

I only took three trades today so I'll go over them (Chart attached below)

Trade #1
Entered Long on small pullback at 900 around 9:30 AM (central). Moved stop-loss to break-even when position went 6 ticks in favor. I was stopped out at break-even a few minutes later, and price moved 4+ points in my favor immediately after I was stopped out (doh!)

Trade #2:
Entered Long at 904.75 around 10:50 AM. I definitely entered a bit early on this one; should have entered at 903.75, but it is what it is. I was using a 2-pt stop-loss, and price hit a low of 902.75 at 11:10 AM, and I was promptly stopped out for -2 pts. That was the Low point of the swing, and price didn't touch 902.75 for the remainder of the session (luck was def. not on my side today).

Trade #3:
Entered Long at 903.00 around 11:15 AM with a 6-tick stop-loss. Let this one run for +4 pts, and exited at 907.00 around 11:50 AM. I was expecting price to head higher, but didn't want to be greedy (Friday's Stop-Loss experiment showed that it's good to take profit once price has moved 4-5 pts in favor). I called it a day at this point since price was just chopping around.

ES (5-Min) - Trade Chart


Stats:

# of Trades	3
Longs	3
Shorts	0
% Break-Even:	33.33
% Win	33.33
% Loss	33.33
Avg Win	4.00
Avg Loss	-2.00
Largest Win (pts)	4.00
Largest Loss (pts)	-2.00
Total Win (pts)	4.00
Total Loss (pts)	-2.00
Net Gain/Loss (pts)	2.00
ES Daily Range	32.75
P/L as % of Daily Range	6.11

Lot of Econ News out this week so there should be plenty of volatility in the markets. Expecting support at 893 and resistance at 916 and 923. Existing Home Sales data out at 9:00 AM tomorrow. Btw, I won't be trading tomorrow since I have to head to Downtown to take care of all the paperwork for the new job.

ES (Daily) - Today's bullish candle on the Daily took out the bearish movement of the previous 3-4 sessions.

Tuesday 04/28/09 - Indecisive price action

I won't bore you with the excuses (although I have a few), bottom line is, I didn't adjust to the market's pace (or lack of), and got chopped. There just wasn't any follow through on the moves today; my trades would go 1-2 points in favor, but my targets were usually 3-4 points and I would try to be patient and hold out for target, and instead get hit with a loss since price would reverse hard! I had 25 trades today (32% win rate) with 3 Longs (all losers), and 22 shorts (36% win rate) and ended the day with a net loss of -$310 ($157.20 lost on the 3 Longs, and $152.80 lost on 22 shorts). At least I kept it tight. I made several mistakes. First mistake was trading while I was mentally frustrated and physically occupied with non-market related issues, and not "in the zone". Second, I got sucked into trading the afternoon range-bound chop, and reversed my position several times which resulted in several small losses. I should have just waited it out, but I really thought the market was going to drop to at least the 851 area, and wanted to be positioned short into the drop. After I was down over $300, I decided to call it quits, and of course we got the break-down in ES right after I quit for the day (so frustrating!). And that brings me to an important question: Should I impose a loss-limit while I'm on the Sim? I would definitely have a loss limit on the real $ account, and it makes sense to treat the Sim trading as close to real $ trading as I possibly can. But on the other hand, I miss out on additional screen/trade time if I quit early in the day. Post your thoughts in the comments.

An update on my friend; he netted +$55 or so today after commission. Not bad at all considering the price action.

GDP at 7:30 AM (central) and FOMC Meeting Announcement at 1:15 PM (central) tomorrow.

ES 233-Tick Bar Chart (Morning Trades)


ES 233-Tick Bar Chart (Afternoon Trades)


ES/$TICK (3-Min) - TICK MAs were hovering around the zero-line most of the day; indicative of the indecisive market action today. We got the gap-fill at 9:42 AM (central)