Friday 03/26/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
I was anticipating a test of 1170, and we almost got there (1169.75 was High of Day). The NYSE TICK was flashing negative divergences well in advance of the drop. The Key Levels provided great trade location on both, Longs and Shorts. 1157.50 was my Bull/Bear Line in Sand, and we bounced off 1156.50; a tick ahead of previous week's Close.

ES 5-Minute Chart


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart

Friday 03/26/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
Intermediate Tops aren't typically put in place with single day sell-offs, and I'm anticipating a test of the 1170-1175 area. That doesn't mean we won't get rotations (pullbacks) along the way in the Resistance Areas, but one day of selling is no reason to go all-out bearish on the market. My Bull/Bear Line in Sand is still 1157.50; a break of that level could result in Long Liquidation and the Bears are antsy and prepared to pounce on this market, so we could move down to the 1145 or even 1139-1140 area. On the bright side, it's nice to see some volatility back in the market! Keep an eye on the XLE (Energy ETF); it could give provide a heads-up on short-term market direction. Final note: Anything can happen at anytime! Be prepared and trade well!

Econ Data
GDP at 7:30 AM (CT), Consumer Sentiment at 8:55 AM (CT).

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Friday 02/26/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
The Key Levels and the Bull/Bear Line in the Sand at 1095 provided a great "road map" that kept me on the right side of the market. We saw a rejection of the 1099 level, and acceptance of 1102 during the first 30 minute rotation. Following that, price pushed down to 1096.25 on the Existing Home Sales release, and Responsive Buyers came in and quickly rejected the unfair lows in the 1096.25-1098.25 area. From that point on, we continued to see acceptance of prices above 1100, with continuous rejection of lower prices (1100+ considered "fair" value). I'm anticipating this area to hold going into next week. A push below 1095 could result in liquidation and/or initiative selling. A break-out above 1113 could easily push price up to the mid 1120s.

Hope you all performed at your best this week! Have a great weekend!

ES 5-Minute Chart


ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart

Friday 02/26/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
After Thursday's recovery to 1100+, bias is bullish going into tomorrow. The obvious catalysts tomorrow morning include the GDP release followed by Existing Home Sales data. You can check the blog post from the previous GDP Release on 01/29/2010 for ideas on how price may react. I could write additional ideas, but it's already past 1:30 AM and Thursday's a really long day for -- plus I need to be up pretty early tomorrow so just the Key Levels will have to do. Bias is bullish above 1095, bearish below.

Econ Data
GDP at 7:30 AM (cst), Chicago PMI at 8:45 AM (cst), Consumer Sentiment at 8:55 AM (cst), and Existing Home Sales at 9:00 AM (cst)

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Friday 01/29/2010 - Euro FX Futures Review/Analysis

Euro FX (EUR/USD) Futures
I didn't have time to post the Key Levels for the 6E last night, but they worked out fairly well today. I scalped the 6E for a bit; but my main focus was the ES, which I believe had better price action today. Click on the 5-min Chart to see how the day played out in the Euro FX futures. Have a great weekend!

EC/6E 5-Minute Chart for 01/29/10

Friday 01/29/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
The Key Levels posted last night worked out beautifully today; pretty much to the tick. I missed the early morning action due to work, but managed to get Long at 1068 and traded the bounce on first touch. Click on the 5-min Chart to see how today's price action played out. Have a great weekend!

ES 5-Minute Chart for 01/29/10

Friday 01/29/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
So far, we've seen Long Liquidation this entire week with technical bounces in oversold areas or areas of prior support. Now we're heading into some old areas of support here (remember 09' Thanksgiving, Dubai, etc). Obviously, the current trend is pointing down and the S&Ps continue to sell off overnight, but that could set up the stage for Responsive Buyers to come in tomorrow morning. Trade in direction of momentum, and use the Key Levels not only to initiate trades, but for targets as well. Use the increase in volatility to reach extended targets.

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Tuesday 12/22/2009 - S&P 500 Futures Market Review

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
It was low volume chop day, but the key levels worked very well. The Initial Resistance Zone of 1112-1113.50 acted as resistance in the overnight Globex session, and price paused there several times. The GDP release pushed price down to 1110 and it became a swing low, and thus a key reference point (I took a Fib measurement of this swing to get some range extension targets if price reversed to the upside). Price pushed up to 1115.75 on the Existing Home Sales #, but couldn't get beyond that. You can see on the 5-min chart that price hit that level 4 times, and couldn't get through it, and it was a low-risk area to initiate a short with a tight stop. From there, we sold off the IB low, but 1110-1110.75 was support and the 1110.50 low was rejected. 1112 was previous day's IB High. I posted the 1112 level on Twitter/StockTwits several times in the afternoon (bullish above 1112, bearish below). It was a key reference point to establish a short-term bias, and served me well.

ES 5-Minute Chart for 12/22/09 Includes Overnight Globex

Key Levels & Scenarios (S&P 500 Futures) for Tuesday 12/22/2009

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
Two important economic releases tomorrow morning: GDP at 7:30 AM (cst) and Existing Home Sales at 9:00 AM (cst). My bias is bullish above 1103 and bearish below it. ES is already trading very close to the initial resistance zone (1112-1113.50), and may even take it out overnight. Aside from the moves driven by economic news, I'm anticipating rotational price action between the support and resistance zones. Don't be afraid of the Long side; if we continue moving higher, the stops above will carry Long positions well into the black. Must be cautious on both sides though since it's a holiday week and end of the year. Thin markets can move farther than we may think.


ES - Daily Bar Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Key Levels (S&P 500) for Tuesday 11/24/2009

E-Mini S&P 500
Monday rally pattern continues, and now 8 of the last 9 Monday's have been bullish! The bullish scenario put together last night worked out well; price made a solid up move over night once it broke above 1095.25. 1102 area acted as resistance over-night, and price rotated back down to 1099.50 and chopped around in that area till 8:10 am (cst). At the moment, the ES is trading at 1101.25 and the immediate price action is pointing towards lower levels. But we had a nice up move today, and price could just chop around and consolidate within Monday's range. High probability of range bound trade tomorrow so be nimble and mindful of your directional bias! GDP data out at 7:30 am (cst), S&P Case-Shiller HPI out at 8:00 am (cst) and Consumer Confidence data out at 9:00 am (cst). If you're new to the S&P futures, I would just sit out the first hour.

Bullish Scenario
We have a cluster of VPOCs from 1105-1106, and price needs to break through that to get some breathing room to the upside. After that, I would anticipate a test of the highs at 1112.25. Price has been knocking around that area for a few days now, and bears are getting too comfortable initiating shorts in that area, so a break-out through that area would not surprise me. Beyond 1112.25, 1116 is do-able with 1117.75-1120 being the range extension target zone. We also have some nice areas of support below. 1099 is near-term support in the Globex session. Below that, 1098 is previous week's mid-point. 1097.50 is the 50% retracement of the current swing on the Hourly chart. 1094 is the initial support level for tomorrow's session. There's a nice cushion of support below us, and I'm not anticipating price just slicing through all that in a single attempt. 1098 could provide a bounce, as well as 1094-1095. Bias shifts to bearish below 1090.25 (open gap).

Bearish Scenario
As you can tell, my current bias is to the Long side, but I must have a bearish scenario in mind since the market can do anything at any time! We have initial resistance in the 1105-1106 area (VPOC cluster), and that could be a good area to take a stab on the short side if momentum is weak. On the downside, if price manages to slip back through 1089, I would shift to shorting the bounces. Downside targets and areas of support are annotated on the Volume Profile chart.

ES - Daily Bar Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Wed. 04/29/09 - Bullishness Continues

I'm having some work done at my condo in downtown Chicago and was busy meeting with contractors most of the day (thank God I'm not in the construction business). But from the looks of it, I didn't really miss much.

Market rally on bad or mediocre news is indicative of a bull (or at least bullish) market. Everyone is looking for a retrace; no, wishing and praying for a retrace, and it hasn't materialized yet. I've looked over several time-frame charts (15-min, 60-min, 240-min, and Daily) and they're all bullish. I'm not saying I won't short, but I will be cautious on the short side. This market is not letting up and the more bears that pile in on the short side, the stronger the next leg up will be. At the rate this market is moving, breaking above 900 shouldn't take a lot of effort. We've developed substantial support in the 830 area, and now in the 850 area. A pullback to 850 is within reason. My only concern at this point is the weakness in NQ.

On this end, I won't be able to trade tomorrow either since I have to be at the condo at 8:30 AM sharp to get the contractor going on the work. Hopefully I can trade the afternoon session. Personal Income and Outlays at 7:30 AM (central), Jobless Claims at 7:30 AM (central), Chicago PMI at 8:45 AM (central) tomorrow.

I'll leave you with the Daily chart of the S&P Cash Index and the ES. Let me know your thoughts and/or market outlook for the coming days/weeks.

ES - Daily


$SPX.X - Daily


ES/$TICK (3-Min) - Negative $TICK divergence on the push up 879.25. Open gap at 851.25.