View full size chart
Showing posts with label Before Holiday. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Before Holiday. Show all posts
Friday, January 13, 2012
Friday, December 23, 2011
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Trade Plan & Chart for Wed. 11/23
Trade Plan from EMiniPlayer.net
The fast liquidation move below 1180.50 mentioned in yesterday's Trade Plan materialized in the overnight session, with the Selling shutting off 3 ticks ahead of the 1166 Support. Heading into the day session, we have Pre-Market Support at 1170-1172, followed by Initial Support at 1165.50-1167. Below 1165.50, 1157-1158 is a KEY area (NVPOC at 1158), and we could get an aggressive Buy Response there. Use the Opening Range to determine which side is in short-term control (Price above OR = Buyers in Control, Price below OR = Sellers in Control). Unless we get an Open Drive to the upside, the expectation is for a Balanced session, with Responsive Buyers active at Support and Responsive Sellers active at Resistance (b-Shaped profile with Selling tail). The 1184-1185.25 Resistance Zone could cap the upside, with 1189-1191 being an extreme (unlikely that we'll tag this today). The U.S. markets are closed tomorrow for Thanksgiving, so expect lighter volume today with choppy price action -- be selective on Trade Location and setups. ES is set to open below Value.
5-minute Chart with Support/Resistance Zones
View full size chart
The fast liquidation move below 1180.50 mentioned in yesterday's Trade Plan materialized in the overnight session, with the Selling shutting off 3 ticks ahead of the 1166 Support. Heading into the day session, we have Pre-Market Support at 1170-1172, followed by Initial Support at 1165.50-1167. Below 1165.50, 1157-1158 is a KEY area (NVPOC at 1158), and we could get an aggressive Buy Response there. Use the Opening Range to determine which side is in short-term control (Price above OR = Buyers in Control, Price below OR = Sellers in Control). Unless we get an Open Drive to the upside, the expectation is for a Balanced session, with Responsive Buyers active at Support and Responsive Sellers active at Resistance (b-Shaped profile with Selling tail). The 1184-1185.25 Resistance Zone could cap the upside, with 1189-1191 being an extreme (unlikely that we'll tag this today). The U.S. markets are closed tomorrow for Thanksgiving, so expect lighter volume today with choppy price action -- be selective on Trade Location and setups. ES is set to open below Value.
5-minute Chart with Support/Resistance Zones
View full size chart
Thursday, April 1, 2010
Thursday 04/01/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
Some nice action in the S&Ps today. As I mentioned in yesterday's review, we've observed Responsive Buying and Responsive Selling all week, and today was much of the same. Responsive Sellers quickly rejected higher prices, and once price moved below 1167, Responsive Buyers quickly pushed price back up. 1167-1169 was the Area of heavy acceptance this week. This up move is losing momentum though. The previous week's high was 1176.50, and the high for this week so far is only one handle higher at 1177.50. If price gets below 1158, and longs begin liquidating, we could easily get a pullback to the 1139-1141 area.
Btw, I've received questions regarding the arrows on the 5-Minute charts I post in the daily reviews. To clarify, the arrows are NOT plotted automatically. I manually place those arrows on the charts where I see good setups (a lot of times within the Key Areas posted the night before). Some of the arrows are actual trades that I took (e.g. I shorted 1177 and went long at 1167 today). But not all of them are my trades. I don't plot all my trades on the 5-minute chart; just the setups. Hope that clears things up.
The markets are closed tomorrow for Good Friday, so enjoy the day off and have a good weekend!
ES 5-Minute Chart
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart
Some nice action in the S&Ps today. As I mentioned in yesterday's review, we've observed Responsive Buying and Responsive Selling all week, and today was much of the same. Responsive Sellers quickly rejected higher prices, and once price moved below 1167, Responsive Buyers quickly pushed price back up. 1167-1169 was the Area of heavy acceptance this week. This up move is losing momentum though. The previous week's high was 1176.50, and the high for this week so far is only one handle higher at 1177.50. If price gets below 1158, and longs begin liquidating, we could easily get a pullback to the 1139-1141 area.
Btw, I've received questions regarding the arrows on the 5-Minute charts I post in the daily reviews. To clarify, the arrows are NOT plotted automatically. I manually place those arrows on the charts where I see good setups (a lot of times within the Key Areas posted the night before). Some of the arrows are actual trades that I took (e.g. I shorted 1177 and went long at 1167 today). But not all of them are my trades. I don't plot all my trades on the 5-minute chart; just the setups. Hope that clears things up.
The markets are closed tomorrow for Good Friday, so enjoy the day off and have a good weekend!
ES 5-Minute Chart
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart
Wednesday, March 31, 2010
Thursday 04/01/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
The current range for the WEEK is 12.50 points (1161.25-1173.75)! We've built acceptance between 1167.75 and 1169.75, and every move above and below that area has been met with Responsive Buying and Responsive Selling. We need a catalyst to drive this market outside of this range, at which point, I would anticipate some Initiative Activity. Tomorrow could be a trend day when price finally pushes to 1150 or 1183...or we could just get more of the same (chop). When everyone gets complacent (comfortable) within the current range, we'll probably get a surprise move that will force one party (either buyers or sellers) to liquidate their positions. As long as we hold above 1163, my bias remains (cautiously) to the upside. Trade well!
Econ Data
Motor Vehicle Sales, Jobless Claims at 7:30 AM (CT), Construction Spending and ISM Mfg Index at 9:00 AM (CT), EIA Natural Gas Report at 9:30 AM (CT).
ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
The current range for the WEEK is 12.50 points (1161.25-1173.75)! We've built acceptance between 1167.75 and 1169.75, and every move above and below that area has been met with Responsive Buying and Responsive Selling. We need a catalyst to drive this market outside of this range, at which point, I would anticipate some Initiative Activity. Tomorrow could be a trend day when price finally pushes to 1150 or 1183...or we could just get more of the same (chop). When everyone gets complacent (comfortable) within the current range, we'll probably get a surprise move that will force one party (either buyers or sellers) to liquidate their positions. As long as we hold above 1163, my bias remains (cautiously) to the upside. Trade well!
Econ Data
Motor Vehicle Sales, Jobless Claims at 7:30 AM (CT), Construction Spending and ISM Mfg Index at 9:00 AM (CT), EIA Natural Gas Report at 9:30 AM (CT).
ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
Thursday, December 24, 2009
Thursday 12/24/2009 (Christmas Eve) - S&P 500 Futures Market Review
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
We finally tagged that 1122 Level I've been posting for a while now. The market closed near the high of day, which indicates strength and unfinished business in the 1120+ area, and leads me to anticipate upward continuation into early next week.
Have a happy and safe holiday!
ES 5-Minute Chart for 12/24/09 Includes Overnight Globex
We finally tagged that 1122 Level I've been posting for a while now. The market closed near the high of day, which indicates strength and unfinished business in the 1120+ area, and leads me to anticipate upward continuation into early next week.
Have a happy and safe holiday!
ES 5-Minute Chart for 12/24/09 Includes Overnight Globex
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
Wednesday 12/23/2009 - S&P 500 Futures Market Review
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
The key levels worked very well today. The overnight stop run above the previous high of day paused at 1119 to the tick -- and that level worked multiple times. Sellers kept price under 1121, and shorting below 1122 with a tight stop was fine. The morning sell off stopped and reversed at the Initial Support Zone. Sellers kept price under the IB High (was also the High of Day) in the PM session. I was anticipating another stop-run if the buyers had been able to push price above 1117.25 in the afternoon. 1117.25 is now acting as Resistance in the overnight Globex session. The charts below show how the Levels worked out.
I won't be posting Key Levels tonight since tomorrow is a short day. 1119-1121 is still the Resistance Zone to watch. Above 1122, we could easily get to 1127.
Best wishes to everyone this holiday season! 2009 has been a very educational year and I feel confident going into 2010!
ES 5-Minute Chart for 12/23/09 Includes Overnight Globex
ES - Volume Profile and Key Levels 12/23/09
The key levels worked very well today. The overnight stop run above the previous high of day paused at 1119 to the tick -- and that level worked multiple times. Sellers kept price under 1121, and shorting below 1122 with a tight stop was fine. The morning sell off stopped and reversed at the Initial Support Zone. Sellers kept price under the IB High (was also the High of Day) in the PM session. I was anticipating another stop-run if the buyers had been able to push price above 1117.25 in the afternoon. 1117.25 is now acting as Resistance in the overnight Globex session. The charts below show how the Levels worked out.
I won't be posting Key Levels tonight since tomorrow is a short day. 1119-1121 is still the Resistance Zone to watch. Above 1122, we could easily get to 1127.
Best wishes to everyone this holiday season! 2009 has been a very educational year and I feel confident going into 2010!
ES 5-Minute Chart for 12/23/09 Includes Overnight Globex
ES - Volume Profile and Key Levels 12/23/09
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
Wednesday 11/25/2009 - Market Review
I can't stress this enough: Enter trades at Key Levels! Don't get caught up in the DOM, the tick moves or the color of the current bar/candle. Have a plan prior to the market open, then be patient and wait for price to get to the areas where YOU want to conduct business. A few benefits to this approach:
1) You will have better control over your anxiety/psychology since you're waiting for price to get to the area you want, and you'll be prepared to enter the trade at that level
2) You'll avoid the chop in the middle
3) You'll be able to use a tight stop-loss since the difference between the level where you enter a trade, and the level where you're proven wrong will usually be within 2-3 points, if not less.
Following is today's 5-minute day-session chart. Look at the 5-min chart in conjunction with the Key Levels and Scenarios post from last night. This is simple stuff, just requires some patience and discipline. Happy Thanksgiving!
ES 5-Minute Day Session Chart for 11/25/09
1) You will have better control over your anxiety/psychology since you're waiting for price to get to the area you want, and you'll be prepared to enter the trade at that level
2) You'll avoid the chop in the middle
3) You'll be able to use a tight stop-loss since the difference between the level where you enter a trade, and the level where you're proven wrong will usually be within 2-3 points, if not less.
Following is today's 5-minute day-session chart. Look at the 5-min chart in conjunction with the Key Levels and Scenarios post from last night. This is simple stuff, just requires some patience and discipline. Happy Thanksgiving!
ES 5-Minute Day Session Chart for 11/25/09
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Key Levels (S&P 500) for Wednesday 11/25/2009
E-Mini S&P 500
Scenarios posted last night worked out great today! I mentioned last night that "1098 could provide a bounce, as well as 1094-1095." - and we got a solid bounce at 1095 into the VPOC cluster, with price peaking at 1106.75. ES is currently trading at 1105.50, building value above 1100. Going into tomorrow, my bias is still bullish. From a seasonality perspective, we saw a huge up move on the day before Thanksgiving last year, but 2008 was a crazy year! At this point, I'm bullish above 1100, neutral above 1089 and bearish below 1089. This doesn't mean I won't initiate shorts if we move into the range extension areas (1115-1119), but above 1094, I'd rather buy the pullbacks. Below 1089, I'd like to sell the bounces. Today was an inside day, and the bullish/bearish scenarios haven't really changed since yesterday.
Lot of Econ #s coming out between 7:30 am and 9:00 am (cst). Durable Goods Orders, Personal Income and Outlays and Jobless Claims out at 7:30 am (cst). Consumer Sentiment at 8:55 am (cst). New Home Sales data out at 9:00 am (cst). Be prepared and keep an open mind; even though it's a day before a holiday, we could see some big moves tomorrow!
ES - Daily Bar Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
Scenarios posted last night worked out great today! I mentioned last night that "1098 could provide a bounce, as well as 1094-1095." - and we got a solid bounce at 1095 into the VPOC cluster, with price peaking at 1106.75. ES is currently trading at 1105.50, building value above 1100. Going into tomorrow, my bias is still bullish. From a seasonality perspective, we saw a huge up move on the day before Thanksgiving last year, but 2008 was a crazy year! At this point, I'm bullish above 1100, neutral above 1089 and bearish below 1089. This doesn't mean I won't initiate shorts if we move into the range extension areas (1115-1119), but above 1094, I'd rather buy the pullbacks. Below 1089, I'd like to sell the bounces. Today was an inside day, and the bullish/bearish scenarios haven't really changed since yesterday.
Lot of Econ #s coming out between 7:30 am and 9:00 am (cst). Durable Goods Orders, Personal Income and Outlays and Jobless Claims out at 7:30 am (cst). Consumer Sentiment at 8:55 am (cst). New Home Sales data out at 9:00 am (cst). Be prepared and keep an open mind; even though it's a day before a holiday, we could see some big moves tomorrow!
ES - Daily Bar Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
Sunday, November 22, 2009
Key Levels (S&P 500) for Monday 11/23/2009
E-Mini S&P 500
As @Jediphone pointed out on StockTwits, 7 of the last 8 Monday's have been bullish with an average gain of 1.28% (source: Phil's Stock World). In doing my own research, I found that the Monday after OpEx Friday was bullish in October, and the Monday of Thanksgiving week in 2008 was bullish as well. It's something to keep in mind, but of course, trades should be initiated based off what the market tells you in real-time. Existing Home Sales data out at 9:00 am (cst) tomorrow morning.
Bullish Scenario
1089 (VPOC from Friday) is near-term support. On the up side, we have near-term resistance at 1095.25. I'm bullish above 1095.25. After that, we have range extension targets in the 1098.25-1099.25 area, which could act as short-term resistance. If price gets to that area, I would anticipate a test of 1100, but that's a good area to scale out of Longs, and re-load at better prices. Above 1100, 1102.50 is a level that could offer stronger resistance and provide a rotation back to the 1099-1100 area. Above 1102.50, 1106 is strong resistance, and we have an Open Gap at 1108.50. We're currently building value in the 1094 area.
Bearish Scenario
1089 is the Volume Point of Control from Friday, and price would need to get below that level for sellers to begin taking control. 1085.25 is the next level of support, and the line in the sand for me between bullish/bearish bias. Below 1085.25, my bias shifts to bearish and shorting bounces becomes the higher probability play, IMHO. If we get below 1085.25, we'll likely test 1082.50, and quite possibly even break below it to get to that 1076-1079 area. I would expect the sell off to really accelerate if we break below 1076. 1064 has been the final bearish target for several days now.
ES - Daily Bar Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
As @Jediphone pointed out on StockTwits, 7 of the last 8 Monday's have been bullish with an average gain of 1.28% (source: Phil's Stock World). In doing my own research, I found that the Monday after OpEx Friday was bullish in October, and the Monday of Thanksgiving week in 2008 was bullish as well. It's something to keep in mind, but of course, trades should be initiated based off what the market tells you in real-time. Existing Home Sales data out at 9:00 am (cst) tomorrow morning.
Bullish Scenario
1089 (VPOC from Friday) is near-term support. On the up side, we have near-term resistance at 1095.25. I'm bullish above 1095.25. After that, we have range extension targets in the 1098.25-1099.25 area, which could act as short-term resistance. If price gets to that area, I would anticipate a test of 1100, but that's a good area to scale out of Longs, and re-load at better prices. Above 1100, 1102.50 is a level that could offer stronger resistance and provide a rotation back to the 1099-1100 area. Above 1102.50, 1106 is strong resistance, and we have an Open Gap at 1108.50. We're currently building value in the 1094 area.
Bearish Scenario
1089 is the Volume Point of Control from Friday, and price would need to get below that level for sellers to begin taking control. 1085.25 is the next level of support, and the line in the sand for me between bullish/bearish bias. Below 1085.25, my bias shifts to bearish and shorting bounces becomes the higher probability play, IMHO. If we get below 1085.25, we'll likely test 1082.50, and quite possibly even break below it to get to that 1076-1079 area. I would expect the sell off to really accelerate if we break below 1076. 1064 has been the final bearish target for several days now.
ES - Daily Bar Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
Friday, May 22, 2009
Friday 05/22/09 - Stop-Loss Experiment
I went to bed around 2:30 AM last night, and slept in till 9:30 AM this morning. I got to the screens around 10:30 AM (central), and saw that price had bounced off 882, an area that I marked as support yesterday. I utilized just the 5-minute chart for trade placement today, and my focus was to experiment with my stop-loss management. I decided I would let the trade run and move my stop-loss to break-even once price had moved 2 points in my favor. My initial profit target was 4 points (1:2 R/R). I had a total of 3 trades.
Trade#1
I entered Long around 10:55 AM at 890.50 with a 2-pt stop and an initial 4-pt profit target. Once price moved 2 pts in my favor, I moved my stop-loss to break-even. Price then went 3 pts in my favor, at which point, it looked like I should exit the trade but I had to stick with the 4 pt target for this experiment's sake, and was exited at break-even around 11:25 AM (central).
Trade #2
I entered Long around 11:30 AM at 890, again with a 2 pt stop and 4 pt profit target. Once price moved 2 pts in favor, I moved the stop-loss to break-even. Price then continued and was +3.75 pts in my favor, a mere 1 tick away from my exit order. The 12:10 PM (central) candlestick signaled a reversal and I could have bailed for +3 points, but I stuck with the experiment and once again was stopped out at break-even at 12:35 PM.
Trade #3
I entered Long around 1:00 PM at 890.50, with a 2-pt stop and 4 pt profit target. I actually had to leave the house at this time, so put in the bracket orders for stop and profit, and left the PC. On this trade, price finally hit my profit target for +4 pts at 2:15 PM (central). The 2:20 PM candle would have signalled a short entry for me, but I wasn't at my desk.
ES (5-Min) - Trade Chart
I realize one day's price action doesn't say much, but it looks like I need to give my trades some room in the beginning. Moving stop-loss to break-even at +2 pts sounds reasonable from a risk management perspective. But then if I see a reversal signal, I also need to go ahead and exit at a profit. I easily left 3 pts on the table on my first two trades, so this could actually have been a +10 pt day in just 3 trades if I used discretion and exited the first two trades at a profit. Here's the Stats break-down:
We have an open gap at 899.50, and at this point, the 876-882 area has proved to be support. Lets see if that holds next week. Have a fun and safe memorial day weekend!
ES (Daily) - Zoomed In. Price made a lower high and higher low today.
Trade#1
I entered Long around 10:55 AM at 890.50 with a 2-pt stop and an initial 4-pt profit target. Once price moved 2 pts in my favor, I moved my stop-loss to break-even. Price then went 3 pts in my favor, at which point, it looked like I should exit the trade but I had to stick with the 4 pt target for this experiment's sake, and was exited at break-even around 11:25 AM (central).
Trade #2
I entered Long around 11:30 AM at 890, again with a 2 pt stop and 4 pt profit target. Once price moved 2 pts in favor, I moved the stop-loss to break-even. Price then continued and was +3.75 pts in my favor, a mere 1 tick away from my exit order. The 12:10 PM (central) candlestick signaled a reversal and I could have bailed for +3 points, but I stuck with the experiment and once again was stopped out at break-even at 12:35 PM.
Trade #3
I entered Long around 1:00 PM at 890.50, with a 2-pt stop and 4 pt profit target. I actually had to leave the house at this time, so put in the bracket orders for stop and profit, and left the PC. On this trade, price finally hit my profit target for +4 pts at 2:15 PM (central). The 2:20 PM candle would have signalled a short entry for me, but I wasn't at my desk.
ES (5-Min) - Trade Chart
I realize one day's price action doesn't say much, but it looks like I need to give my trades some room in the beginning. Moving stop-loss to break-even at +2 pts sounds reasonable from a risk management perspective. But then if I see a reversal signal, I also need to go ahead and exit at a profit. I easily left 3 pts on the table on my first two trades, so this could actually have been a +10 pt day in just 3 trades if I used discretion and exited the first two trades at a profit. Here's the Stats break-down:
| # of Trades | 3 |
| Longs | 3 |
| Shorts | 0 |
| % Break-Even: | 66.67 |
| % Win | 33.33 |
| % Loss | 0.00 |
| Avg Win | 4.00 |
| Avg Loss | 0.00 |
| Largest Win (pts) | 4.00 |
| Largest Loss (pts) | 0.00 |
| Total Win (pts) | 4.00 |
| Total Loss (pts) | 0.00 |
| Net Gain/Loss (pts) | 4.00 |
| ES Daily Range | 13.50 |
| P/L as % of Daily Range | 29.63 |
We have an open gap at 899.50, and at this point, the 876-882 area has proved to be support. Lets see if that holds next week. Have a fun and safe memorial day weekend!
ES (Daily) - Zoomed In. Price made a lower high and higher low today.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)