Friday 03/26/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
I was anticipating a test of 1170, and we almost got there (1169.75 was High of Day). The NYSE TICK was flashing negative divergences well in advance of the drop. The Key Levels provided great trade location on both, Longs and Shorts. 1157.50 was my Bull/Bear Line in Sand, and we bounced off 1156.50; a tick ahead of previous week's Close.

ES 5-Minute Chart


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart

Friday 03/26/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
Intermediate Tops aren't typically put in place with single day sell-offs, and I'm anticipating a test of the 1170-1175 area. That doesn't mean we won't get rotations (pullbacks) along the way in the Resistance Areas, but one day of selling is no reason to go all-out bearish on the market. My Bull/Bear Line in Sand is still 1157.50; a break of that level could result in Long Liquidation and the Bears are antsy and prepared to pounce on this market, so we could move down to the 1145 or even 1139-1140 area. On the bright side, it's nice to see some volatility back in the market! Keep an eye on the XLE (Energy ETF); it could give provide a heads-up on short-term market direction. Final note: Anything can happen at anytime! Be prepared and trade well!

Econ Data
GDP at 7:30 AM (CT), Consumer Sentiment at 8:55 AM (CT).

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Friday 03/12/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
So the first move above 1150 got sold into; what a surprise (sarcasm). Price bounced ahead of the Overnight Support Level (1141.75), and was well accepted in the 1143.50-1146 area, closing above VWAP, Previous Close and the Day Session Midpoint. Aside from the overbought conditions, I'm not seeing any signs of weakness and price could very well continue moving north into next week. I'm open to a 2-3% pullback, but also can't close my mind to upside continuation. As day traders, we have to be prepared to take advantage of price movement in either direction. Have a great weekend!

ES 5-Minute Chart


ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart

Friday 03/12/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
Price is getting very extended up here, and a breather would be a good thing at this point since it would allow Buyers to re-load at better prices, and may even attract additional capital currently on the sidelines. The challenge at this point is to keep the bearish bias in check, and view price objectively. My Bull/Bear Line in the Sand is 1136.75; bullish above and bearish below that level. Risk management is Key here since a move down could result in some profit-taking, which could trigger a stronger sell-off. Bears are waiting and will probably pounce on this thing at the earliest glimpse of a selling opportunity. Trade well!

Econ Data
Retail Sales at 7:30 AM (cst), Consumer Sentiment at 8:55 AM (cst), and Business Inventories at 9:00 AM (cst). Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner speaks before the U.S. Export-Import Bank annual conference in Washington at 11:00 AM (cst).

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Friday 02/26/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
The Key Levels and the Bull/Bear Line in the Sand at 1095 provided a great "road map" that kept me on the right side of the market. We saw a rejection of the 1099 level, and acceptance of 1102 during the first 30 minute rotation. Following that, price pushed down to 1096.25 on the Existing Home Sales release, and Responsive Buyers came in and quickly rejected the unfair lows in the 1096.25-1098.25 area. From that point on, we continued to see acceptance of prices above 1100, with continuous rejection of lower prices (1100+ considered "fair" value). I'm anticipating this area to hold going into next week. A push below 1095 could result in liquidation and/or initiative selling. A break-out above 1113 could easily push price up to the mid 1120s.

Hope you all performed at your best this week! Have a great weekend!

ES 5-Minute Chart


ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart

Friday 02/26/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
After Thursday's recovery to 1100+, bias is bullish going into tomorrow. The obvious catalysts tomorrow morning include the GDP release followed by Existing Home Sales data. You can check the blog post from the previous GDP Release on 01/29/2010 for ideas on how price may react. I could write additional ideas, but it's already past 1:30 AM and Thursday's a really long day for -- plus I need to be up pretty early tomorrow so just the Key Levels will have to do. Bias is bullish above 1095, bearish below.

Econ Data
GDP at 7:30 AM (cst), Chicago PMI at 8:45 AM (cst), Consumer Sentiment at 8:55 AM (cst), and Existing Home Sales at 9:00 AM (cst)

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Friday 02/12/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
Had a great time on Friday, although those afternoon pullbacks went a little deeper than I expected. On the late afternoon pullback, we had Mid-Point, VWAP, and IB High as Support, which provided a solid bounce with a close at the High of Day. Given the strong close, I'm anticipating continuation into the next trading session. It looks like price could have gone higher but ran out of time.

Btw, I will begin trading Crude in the near future so if I get time, I may post Key Levels and Review for Crude as well.

ES 5-Minute Chart for 02/12/10


ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart for 02/12/10


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart for 02/12/10

Friday 02/12/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
Bulls have shown continued strength over the last couple of days. With the host of econ data coming out tomorrow, we could get strong movements in either direction. We have solid support areas below, and I would expect rotation on first touch. We also have well defined Resistance Areas above. There's an open gap at 1096.25, and that level could act as magnet if buyers continue pushing prices higher.

Econ Data
Retail Sales at 7:30 AM (cst), Consumer Sentiment at 8:55 AM (cst), Business Inventories at 9:00 AM (cst), EIA Natural Gas Report at 9:30 AM (cst), EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:00 AM (cst), Treasury Budget at 1:00 PM (cst)

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Friday 01/29/2010 - Euro FX Futures Review/Analysis

Euro FX (EUR/USD) Futures
I didn't have time to post the Key Levels for the 6E last night, but they worked out fairly well today. I scalped the 6E for a bit; but my main focus was the ES, which I believe had better price action today. Click on the 5-min Chart to see how the day played out in the Euro FX futures. Have a great weekend!

EC/6E 5-Minute Chart for 01/29/10

Friday 01/29/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
The Key Levels posted last night worked out beautifully today; pretty much to the tick. I missed the early morning action due to work, but managed to get Long at 1068 and traded the bounce on first touch. Click on the 5-min Chart to see how today's price action played out. Have a great weekend!

ES 5-Minute Chart for 01/29/10

Friday 01/29/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
So far, we've seen Long Liquidation this entire week with technical bounces in oversold areas or areas of prior support. Now we're heading into some old areas of support here (remember 09' Thanksgiving, Dubai, etc). Obviously, the current trend is pointing down and the S&Ps continue to sell off overnight, but that could set up the stage for Responsive Buyers to come in tomorrow morning. Trade in direction of momentum, and use the Key Levels not only to initiate trades, but for targets as well. Use the increase in volatility to reach extended targets.

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Friday 01/15/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
As I posted last night, the 1141 level was my Line in the Sand to establish directional bias, and it served me well today. My bias was bearish at the open because price had broken down through 1141 as well as Initial Support in overnight trade, and the cash open at 1143 was below previous day's close and in the middle of yesterday's Initial Balance. A break of the 1139.75-1141 area confirmed that sellers were in control. Price also pushed right through the 1135-1137 Support Zone, which was also a sign of aggressive sellers and more selling to follow. Price finally stabilized around 1128.50 (strong support), but only after stopping out the traders who got Long too early in hopes to catch the bottom. It was much better and easier on the nerves to wait, buy the pullback, and trade the rotation back to the IB Low -- I posted this setup/scenario on StockTwits at 12:58 PM (Eastern). Given the weak close below the Initial Balance Low, we could see some continued selling into the next trading session.

Hope you all did great today! I'm off to the Chicago Premier of FLOORED. Have a good weekend!

ES 5-Minute Bar Chart for 01/15/10

Key Support/Resistance Levels (S&P 500 Futures) for Friday 01/15/2010

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
I will continue to use 1141 as Line in the Sand to establish directional bias; bullish above and bearish below it. As long as we remain above 1141, I'm anticipating a test of 1150.50, followed by a pullback. Beyond 1150.50, I would expect a test of 1155.25, and finally the 1159 area. 1128 is still the Big # below, although we now also have some firm support in the 1135-1136 area as well. The estimated daily range for tomorrow is 13.50-17.75 points.

Econ Data
Consumer Price Index and Empire State Mfg Survey at 7:30 AM (cst), Industrial Production at 8:15 AM (cst), and Consumer Sentiment at 8:55 AM (cst).

ES - Daily Bar Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Wednesday 12/23/2009 - S&P 500 Futures Market Review

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
The key levels worked very well today. The overnight stop run above the previous high of day paused at 1119 to the tick -- and that level worked multiple times. Sellers kept price under 1121, and shorting below 1122 with a tight stop was fine. The morning sell off stopped and reversed at the Initial Support Zone. Sellers kept price under the IB High (was also the High of Day) in the PM session. I was anticipating another stop-run if the buyers had been able to push price above 1117.25 in the afternoon. 1117.25 is now acting as Resistance in the overnight Globex session. The charts below show how the Levels worked out.

I won't be posting Key Levels tonight since tomorrow is a short day. 1119-1121 is still the Resistance Zone to watch. Above 1122, we could easily get to 1127.

Best wishes to everyone this holiday season! 2009 has been a very educational year and I feel confident going into 2010!


ES 5-Minute Chart for 12/23/09 Includes Overnight Globex


ES - Volume Profile and Key Levels 12/23/09

Key Levels & Scenarios (S&P 500 Futures) for Wednesday 12/23/2009

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
Three important economic releases tomorrow morning: Personal Income and Outlays at 7:30 AM (cst), Consumer Sentiment at 8:55 AM (cst), and most importantly New Home Sales at 9:00 AM (cst). I'm anticipating range expansion on the New Home Sales data. My bias is bullish above 1110.50, bearish below 1107 and neutral to bullish in between. Watch out if we get above 1122; anticipating a stop-run to cause a strong upward surge. Beyond 1122, there's no use estimating the range potential since it's a fresh and untested scenario and price area. All I can say is, keep your subjective bias in check. Instead, identify key reference points to establish directional bias objectively. Be careful with counter-trend trades; we're at an inflection point and could get a strong trend day. Also have to be extra cautious since it's a short week and there's little to no participation from the big institutional players.

ES - Daily Bar Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Key Levels & Scenarios (S&P 500) for Friday 12/11/2009

E-Mini S&P 500 (March 2010 Contract)
Volume shifted to the March 2010 ES contract towards the afternoon, and going forward, the key levels will be for the March contract. I was busy attending a technology event this evening, and didn't get home till later, which means less time for market analysis. I didn't have much time, but managed to put together some levels for the March contract.

1097.25-1099 is an accepted area at this point, so I'd like to see it hold for continued upside (currently trading at 1100.25). The initial resistance zone is 1103.50-1105.50 and initial support zone is 1093-1094.50. We have a few economic releases tomorrow morning which will probably result in quick volatile moves, so we could blow through the initial support/resistance zones in a hurry. If price is still trading around 1100, I would anticipate a bounce around 1090 and a pullback around 1110, on the econ release move. Make a note of the trend going into the economic release; don't overstay in the counter-trend move - price could reverse again and continue on its original path (trend). As long as you have a plan in place, you won't be shocked/surprised by the moves.

Retail Sales and Import and Export Prices out at 7:30 am (cst). Consumer Sentiment at 8:55 am (cst) and Business Inventories at 9:00 am (cst).

ES - Daily Bar Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels


Crude (CLF10)
For Crude traders, here's how I'm seeing the levels on the Hourly chart for CLF10.

CL - Hourly Chart

Wednesday 11/25/2009 - Market Review

I can't stress this enough: Enter trades at Key Levels! Don't get caught up in the DOM, the tick moves or the color of the current bar/candle. Have a plan prior to the market open, then be patient and wait for price to get to the areas where YOU want to conduct business. A few benefits to this approach:
1) You will have better control over your anxiety/psychology since you're waiting for price to get to the area you want, and you'll be prepared to enter the trade at that level
2) You'll avoid the chop in the middle
3) You'll be able to use a tight stop-loss since the difference between the level where you enter a trade, and the level where you're proven wrong will usually be within 2-3 points, if not less.

Following is today's 5-minute day-session chart. Look at the 5-min chart in conjunction with the Key Levels and Scenarios post from last night. This is simple stuff, just requires some patience and discipline. Happy Thanksgiving!

ES 5-Minute Day Session Chart for 11/25/09

Key Levels (S&P 500) for Wednesday 11/25/2009

E-Mini S&P 500
Scenarios posted last night worked out great today! I mentioned last night that "1098 could provide a bounce, as well as 1094-1095." - and we got a solid bounce at 1095 into the VPOC cluster, with price peaking at 1106.75. ES is currently trading at 1105.50, building value above 1100. Going into tomorrow, my bias is still bullish. From a seasonality perspective, we saw a huge up move on the day before Thanksgiving last year, but 2008 was a crazy year! At this point, I'm bullish above 1100, neutral above 1089 and bearish below 1089. This doesn't mean I won't initiate shorts if we move into the range extension areas (1115-1119), but above 1094, I'd rather buy the pullbacks. Below 1089, I'd like to sell the bounces. Today was an inside day, and the bullish/bearish scenarios haven't really changed since yesterday.

Lot of Econ #s coming out between 7:30 am and 9:00 am (cst). Durable Goods Orders, Personal Income and Outlays and Jobless Claims out at 7:30 am (cst). Consumer Sentiment at 8:55 am (cst). New Home Sales data out at 9:00 am (cst). Be prepared and keep an open mind; even though it's a day before a holiday, we could see some big moves tomorrow!

ES - Daily Bar Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Friday 06/12/09 - End of 1st Week on Live $ Acct

I have to run some errands so will update this post later this evening. The hesitation problem is slowly going away; I guess I should have expected some hesitation since this was my first week back on the Real $ account. I'm ending the week down about $250 after commissions. I placed 24 trades this morning, and was down $185 on NQ at one point; made it all back and then some on a couple of solid trades that I held for 5-6 pts each. Holding on to winners is also a big problem for me, and it looks like I'm making some progress in that area as well.



Stats for Live/Real$ Trades in ES:

# of Trades	10.00
Longs	0.00
Shorts	10.00
% Break-Even:	50.00
% Win	20.00
% Loss	30.00
Avg Win	1.25
Avg Loss	-0.42
Largest Win (pts)	1.50
Largest Loss (pts)	-0.50
Total Win (pts)	2.50
Total Loss (pts)	-1.25
Net Gain/Loss (pts)	1.25
ES Daily Range	11.00
P/L as % of Daily Range	11.36

Stats for Live/Real$ Trades in NQ:

# of Trades	14.00
Longs	14.00
Shorts	0.00
% Break-Even:	7.14
% Win	28.57
% Loss	64.29
Avg Win	2.94
Avg Loss	-1.11
Largest Win (pts)	6.00
Largest Loss (pts)	-1.50
Total Win (pts)	11.75
Total Loss (pts)	-10.00
Net Gain/Loss (pts)	1.75
NQ Daily Range	21.25
P/L as % of Daily Range	8.24

2:10 PM (Central) Update - Got back to my desk around 1:30 PM and figured I would Sim it...this is soo much easier on Sim!

Friday 05/15/09 - No Trades

Turned 26 today, and decided to sleep in since I was up till 2 AM last night finishing some web dev work, and late night reading (check out the Success and Motivation post on Mark Cuban's Blog). As mentioned in yesterday's post, Max Pain Theory predicted price to be in the $87 area for SPY (870s for S&P500 Index). I don't really have much faith in Max Pain, but it's good for entertainment value, and price did come down to 876.75, so maybe I should continue to track it over the next few months and see if it's worth a look. I was busy with web development a good part of the week, and trading was not the main focus. I plan on wrapping up the Web Dev stuff over the weekend so I can focus on trading next week. Ended the week with a net gain of +17.25 pts trading 3 out 5 days, with one of those days dedicated to experimentation. I have high hopes for next week's results.



ES (Daily) - Price still within bullish channel, and 876 low from 05/04/09 was held today.