Monday 03/29/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
We had a 5.75 point day session range on anemic volume. Thankfully, days like today only come around once in a while and are typically followed by range expansion, so be prepared for a better trading day tomorrow.

ES 5-Minute Chart


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart

Monday 03/29/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
Last week, we observed strong Responsive Buying and each dip was bought up quickly, so the bias going into Monday is Bullish as long as price remains above Friday's Low (1156.50). On the upside, I would anticipate the Buying to shut off in the 1181-1183 area. The markets have been on a tear, and we haven't had any significant pullback. On the downside, 1139-1141 is a heavy area of Support and I anticipate Strong Buying to take place there if we get down to that area this week. It's also the end of the month, and Bulls sitting on large gains will probably want to close out March on a positive note! Keep in mind that on the larger time-frames, Bears are the ones who are hurting in this market. Trade well!

Econ Data
Personal Income and Outlays at 7:30 AM (CT)

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Monday 03/01/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
As noted in the Key Levels & Scenario post, the first day of March is historically bullish. Looking at the 30-Min Volume Profile chart, we can see a quick rejection of the 1106.75-1108 area within the first hour of trading. From there, we saw heavy acceptance in the 1112.50-1114 area, followed by a minor upside extension that was met with Resistance. Anticipating 1109 to act as support in the overnight session.

ES 5-Minute Chart


ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart

Monday 03/01/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
Historically, the first day of March has been Bullish. On top of that, last week closed on a bullish note, with Buyers clearly in control. The obvious expectation is continuation to the upside. The upper price target for tomorrow is 1113. On the flip side, if price starts heading lower, we have to observe whether Responsive Buyers are stepping in and adding to their Long positions; or liquidating. My Bull/Bear Line in the Sand is 1095, which also happens to be the downside target if price begins heading lower. Anticipating 1095 to hold tomorrow. In the event that price breaks below 1095 on heavy volume, we could see heavier liquidation by the Buyers, and Initiative activity by the Sellers -- in which case, 1087.50 and 1084.50 would be the Key Levels to watch. Good luck, and best trading!

Econ Data
Personal Income and Outlays at 7:30 AM (cst), ISM Mfg Index and Construction Spending at 9:00 AM (cst).

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Monday 02/01/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
Had a very good day in the S&Ps. The Scenario and Key Levels posted last night worked out great: range-bound market in the morning session followed by an upward trend in the afternoon session. I had a couple of scratched trades, but no losing trades and managed to stay on the right side of the market all day. Looking forward to jumping into trading on a full-time basis in a couple of months!

ES 5-Minute Chart for 02/01/10

Monday 02/01/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
After the heavy selling we saw last week, a technical bounce should not come as a surprise. We have an Open Gap below at 1061.75, which could act as a magnet. Historically, the first day of February is bullish, and Monday's have also been bullish lately. I'm anticipating range-bound activity during the morning session, followed by a trend developing into the afternoon session. I will be looking for Shorting opportunities in the Resistance Zones and Buying opportunities in the 1059.75-1062.50 Zone, and the other Support Zones below. My current bias is bullish going into tomorrow. Use Globex Low as Initial Support. Even better if Globex Low happens to be within my Initial Support Zone of 1066.25-1068. Trade well!

Econ Data
Personal Income and Outlays at 7:30 AM (cst), ISM Mfg Index and Construction Spending at 9:00 AM (cst).

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Wednesday 12/23/2009 - S&P 500 Futures Market Review

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
The key levels worked very well today. The overnight stop run above the previous high of day paused at 1119 to the tick -- and that level worked multiple times. Sellers kept price under 1121, and shorting below 1122 with a tight stop was fine. The morning sell off stopped and reversed at the Initial Support Zone. Sellers kept price under the IB High (was also the High of Day) in the PM session. I was anticipating another stop-run if the buyers had been able to push price above 1117.25 in the afternoon. 1117.25 is now acting as Resistance in the overnight Globex session. The charts below show how the Levels worked out.

I won't be posting Key Levels tonight since tomorrow is a short day. 1119-1121 is still the Resistance Zone to watch. Above 1122, we could easily get to 1127.

Best wishes to everyone this holiday season! 2009 has been a very educational year and I feel confident going into 2010!


ES 5-Minute Chart for 12/23/09 Includes Overnight Globex


ES - Volume Profile and Key Levels 12/23/09

Key Levels & Scenarios (S&P 500 Futures) for Wednesday 12/23/2009

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
Three important economic releases tomorrow morning: Personal Income and Outlays at 7:30 AM (cst), Consumer Sentiment at 8:55 AM (cst), and most importantly New Home Sales at 9:00 AM (cst). I'm anticipating range expansion on the New Home Sales data. My bias is bullish above 1110.50, bearish below 1107 and neutral to bullish in between. Watch out if we get above 1122; anticipating a stop-run to cause a strong upward surge. Beyond 1122, there's no use estimating the range potential since it's a fresh and untested scenario and price area. All I can say is, keep your subjective bias in check. Instead, identify key reference points to establish directional bias objectively. Be careful with counter-trend trades; we're at an inflection point and could get a strong trend day. Also have to be extra cautious since it's a short week and there's little to no participation from the big institutional players.

ES - Daily Bar Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Wednesday 11/25/2009 - Market Review

I can't stress this enough: Enter trades at Key Levels! Don't get caught up in the DOM, the tick moves or the color of the current bar/candle. Have a plan prior to the market open, then be patient and wait for price to get to the areas where YOU want to conduct business. A few benefits to this approach:
1) You will have better control over your anxiety/psychology since you're waiting for price to get to the area you want, and you'll be prepared to enter the trade at that level
2) You'll avoid the chop in the middle
3) You'll be able to use a tight stop-loss since the difference between the level where you enter a trade, and the level where you're proven wrong will usually be within 2-3 points, if not less.

Following is today's 5-minute day-session chart. Look at the 5-min chart in conjunction with the Key Levels and Scenarios post from last night. This is simple stuff, just requires some patience and discipline. Happy Thanksgiving!

ES 5-Minute Day Session Chart for 11/25/09

Key Levels (S&P 500) for Wednesday 11/25/2009

E-Mini S&P 500
Scenarios posted last night worked out great today! I mentioned last night that "1098 could provide a bounce, as well as 1094-1095." - and we got a solid bounce at 1095 into the VPOC cluster, with price peaking at 1106.75. ES is currently trading at 1105.50, building value above 1100. Going into tomorrow, my bias is still bullish. From a seasonality perspective, we saw a huge up move on the day before Thanksgiving last year, but 2008 was a crazy year! At this point, I'm bullish above 1100, neutral above 1089 and bearish below 1089. This doesn't mean I won't initiate shorts if we move into the range extension areas (1115-1119), but above 1094, I'd rather buy the pullbacks. Below 1089, I'd like to sell the bounces. Today was an inside day, and the bullish/bearish scenarios haven't really changed since yesterday.

Lot of Econ #s coming out between 7:30 am and 9:00 am (cst). Durable Goods Orders, Personal Income and Outlays and Jobless Claims out at 7:30 am (cst). Consumer Sentiment at 8:55 am (cst). New Home Sales data out at 9:00 am (cst). Be prepared and keep an open mind; even though it's a day before a holiday, we could see some big moves tomorrow!

ES - Daily Bar Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Monday 06/01/09 - Break Out

I'll start today's post with the Stats, and then briefly go over some of today's good and bad points:

# of Trades	17
Longs	15
Shorts	2
% Break-Even:	11.76
% Win	47.06
% Loss	41.18
Avg Win	1.38
Avg Loss	-0.86
Largest Win (pts)	2.50
Largest Loss (pts)	-1.50
Total Win (pts)	11.00
Total Loss (pts)	-6.00
Net Gain/Loss (pts)	5.00
ES Daily Range	17.75
P/L as % of Daily Range	28.17

I'll go over the good points first: Avg Win was greater than Avg Loss, Largest Win was greater than Largest Loss, and finally almost 90% of today's traders were in direction of Trend. It was also nice seeing price hit 943 since that's been the expected target on this up swing for a few weeks now (refer to the Daily price charts posted over the last few weeks).

Now to the mistakes:

I entered Long at 943.25 on a Buy Stop at 10:59 AM (central); price moved up to 943.75, and then retraced down to 941.75, stopping me out at a -1 pt loss in the process. I wasn't monitoring the sectors or might have noticed the lack of participation from XLF. The monitoring of sectors resulted in a lot of missed trades over the last couple of weeks, so I figured I'd keep it simple today and was just using the 610 tick and 5-min chart. I think I should probably keep an eye on the key sectors such as XLF and XLE, but not utilize them to base specific entries/exits. It was also close to lunch time so perhaps I should've been more careful. Regardless, no big deal, it was just a -1 pt loss.

I then bought the break out again around 11:35 AM using a Buy Stop at 844.25. The 5-min chart printed a couple of dojis, and I had a couple of opportunities to exit at break-even, but I kept holding. I wasn't watching the 1-min NYSE $TICK or would have noticed the very obvious negative divergence when price retraced a bit and then moved back up to 944.50 (price moved higher while $TICK printed a lower high). The multiple dojis should also have served as a warning sign to get out at break-even when the market gave me the chance. I took this same trade later in the afternoon, and exited for a +2 pt profit but the difference was HOW price moved into that 944 area the second time around. The first time, it moved up on weak momentum, whereas, the second time around, the momentum was fairly strong, and the trade worked out. Momentum is Key for short term trading, IMHO.

All in all, an educational day (like every other trading day), and at least I was able to end it in the black. I have two of my friends coming over tomorrow for some group trading education/mentoring, so that will be tomorrow's focus.

Pending Home Sales Index out at 9:00 AM (central) tomorrow. Expecting support at 928.25-932.00; resistance at 947.25 and 955.50. At this point, looking for 916.50 to hold on a closing basis for up-trend to continue. Also need to be aware of open gap at 918.00

I'll end today's post with the following image highlighting Chuck's mantra (refer to comments from Thursday's post, definitely worth a read)

Thursday 04/30/09 - Caught up in the DOM

I'm still waiting for that one day when I'll have no distractions or technical problems throughout the trading day, and I'll be able to focus on just the market. I got up pretty early this morning to head to the condo (as mentioned in yesterday's post), and a few minutes after I left, I got a call from my contractor saying he will need to reschedule due to weather (did I mention how glad I am to NOT be in the construction business). I was actually glad since I could now spend the day trading. I was at the screens at 8:15 AM, and started placing trades around 8:40 AM. Unfortunately, TradeStation started having problems right from the open. Charts froze for a few minutes at the open. Then later on, I lost my tick-bar charts altogether. After that, the NYSE TICK data froze up. Then I lost data on XLF, the financial ETF. In the middle of all this, I received 7-8 phone calls regarding a property I'm selling, which is a good thing for the property sale, but a huge distraction for trading. So basically just problem after problem, and an extremely frustrating day. I was trading just off the 1 and 3 minute charts, and was up +$187.50 in the morning; missed a lot of trades, and took some bad ones since I didn't have the 610 tick chart, which is my primary execution chart. I kicked up the size a bit in the PM session and began trading 1-3 contracts. Ended the day up +$1,100 but I'm not really counting it since it wasn't on my typical 1-lot trade size. For the record, I hate trading 1-lots but I have to prove I can be profitable on 1 contract before I increase size (have traded up to 12 contracts in my real $ account in the past, but want to "earn" the size this time around).

As the title suggests, I lost discipline and got caught up in the action on the DOM (depth of market), and began scalping for quick 1-2 pt profits; at times just 2-3 ticks of profits. Perhaps this was because my charts were barely functioning today, or maybe I just got caught up in price moving so quickly on the price ladder (Infinity's platform is super fast!), and started going for quick momentum trades. I don't know. Whatever the reason, it's not how I normally trade, and despite the gain today, I would grade my trading as a "C-" since I didn't stick to my plan in the afternoon, cut too many winners short, and scalped way too much (40+ trades today).

As of now, looks like I'll be at the condo tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM, unless it rains again, so no trading for tomorrow. A one-day break is probably a good thing on this end.

ES/$TICK (3-Min) - Negative $TICK divergence into the push up to 885.75. Gap filled by 12:14 PM (central).