Wed. 03/31/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
We got a solid bounce at Initial Support, but no follow-through above 1170. NYSE TICK Divergences provided some nice entries on both sides. At this point, the market is pretty much balanced between 1160 and 1170, and we need a catalyst to drive price out of this range.

ES 5-Minute Chart


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart

Wed. 03/31/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
I'm going to continue using 1163.25 as my Bull/Bear Line in Sand, which means the current near-term bias is Bullish. Tomorrow is also the last day of the month, and the market has a tendency to be bullish in the afternoon session. It's a scenario I'm prepared for, so I will try to get more out any Long positions in the afternoon if I see Buy setups around that time. The morning could be choppy or even bearish. Be prepared, go in with a plan, and be mindful of trade location. Initiate trades where you feel comfortable and don't get caught up in the chop. Keep your bias in check. Everyone wants this market to drop, and it could drop tomorrow, or it could test the low 1180s. Trade well!

Econ Data
ADP Employment Report at 7:15 AM (CT), Chicago PMI at 8:45 AM (CT), Factory Orders at 9:00 AM (CT), and EIA Petroleum Status Report at 9:30 AM (CT).

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Friday 02/26/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
The Key Levels and the Bull/Bear Line in the Sand at 1095 provided a great "road map" that kept me on the right side of the market. We saw a rejection of the 1099 level, and acceptance of 1102 during the first 30 minute rotation. Following that, price pushed down to 1096.25 on the Existing Home Sales release, and Responsive Buyers came in and quickly rejected the unfair lows in the 1096.25-1098.25 area. From that point on, we continued to see acceptance of prices above 1100, with continuous rejection of lower prices (1100+ considered "fair" value). I'm anticipating this area to hold going into next week. A push below 1095 could result in liquidation and/or initiative selling. A break-out above 1113 could easily push price up to the mid 1120s.

Hope you all performed at your best this week! Have a great weekend!

ES 5-Minute Chart


ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart

Friday 02/26/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
After Thursday's recovery to 1100+, bias is bullish going into tomorrow. The obvious catalysts tomorrow morning include the GDP release followed by Existing Home Sales data. You can check the blog post from the previous GDP Release on 01/29/2010 for ideas on how price may react. I could write additional ideas, but it's already past 1:30 AM and Thursday's a really long day for -- plus I need to be up pretty early tomorrow so just the Key Levels will have to do. Bias is bullish above 1095, bearish below.

Econ Data
GDP at 7:30 AM (cst), Chicago PMI at 8:45 AM (cst), Consumer Sentiment at 8:55 AM (cst), and Existing Home Sales at 9:00 AM (cst)

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Friday 01/29/2010 - Euro FX Futures Review/Analysis

Euro FX (EUR/USD) Futures
I didn't have time to post the Key Levels for the 6E last night, but they worked out fairly well today. I scalped the 6E for a bit; but my main focus was the ES, which I believe had better price action today. Click on the 5-min Chart to see how the day played out in the Euro FX futures. Have a great weekend!

EC/6E 5-Minute Chart for 01/29/10

Friday 01/29/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
The Key Levels posted last night worked out beautifully today; pretty much to the tick. I missed the early morning action due to work, but managed to get Long at 1068 and traded the bounce on first touch. Click on the 5-min Chart to see how today's price action played out. Have a great weekend!

ES 5-Minute Chart for 01/29/10

Friday 01/29/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
So far, we've seen Long Liquidation this entire week with technical bounces in oversold areas or areas of prior support. Now we're heading into some old areas of support here (remember 09' Thanksgiving, Dubai, etc). Obviously, the current trend is pointing down and the S&Ps continue to sell off overnight, but that could set up the stage for Responsive Buyers to come in tomorrow morning. Trade in direction of momentum, and use the Key Levels not only to initiate trades, but for targets as well. Use the increase in volatility to reach extended targets.

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Wednesday 12/30/2009 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
1110.75-1112 was posted as a Strong Support Zone, and we saw responsive buyers come in at 1113, and push price higher. 1122-1125 was an Area of Resistance, and that held as well. Price remained range-bound within the Initial Balance for the entire day session. Check out the annotated 5-min chart below to see how the day played out.

ES 5-Minute Chart for 12/30/09 Includes Overnight Globex

Thursday 04/30/09 - Caught up in the DOM

I'm still waiting for that one day when I'll have no distractions or technical problems throughout the trading day, and I'll be able to focus on just the market. I got up pretty early this morning to head to the condo (as mentioned in yesterday's post), and a few minutes after I left, I got a call from my contractor saying he will need to reschedule due to weather (did I mention how glad I am to NOT be in the construction business). I was actually glad since I could now spend the day trading. I was at the screens at 8:15 AM, and started placing trades around 8:40 AM. Unfortunately, TradeStation started having problems right from the open. Charts froze for a few minutes at the open. Then later on, I lost my tick-bar charts altogether. After that, the NYSE TICK data froze up. Then I lost data on XLF, the financial ETF. In the middle of all this, I received 7-8 phone calls regarding a property I'm selling, which is a good thing for the property sale, but a huge distraction for trading. So basically just problem after problem, and an extremely frustrating day. I was trading just off the 1 and 3 minute charts, and was up +$187.50 in the morning; missed a lot of trades, and took some bad ones since I didn't have the 610 tick chart, which is my primary execution chart. I kicked up the size a bit in the PM session and began trading 1-3 contracts. Ended the day up +$1,100 but I'm not really counting it since it wasn't on my typical 1-lot trade size. For the record, I hate trading 1-lots but I have to prove I can be profitable on 1 contract before I increase size (have traded up to 12 contracts in my real $ account in the past, but want to "earn" the size this time around).

As the title suggests, I lost discipline and got caught up in the action on the DOM (depth of market), and began scalping for quick 1-2 pt profits; at times just 2-3 ticks of profits. Perhaps this was because my charts were barely functioning today, or maybe I just got caught up in price moving so quickly on the price ladder (Infinity's platform is super fast!), and started going for quick momentum trades. I don't know. Whatever the reason, it's not how I normally trade, and despite the gain today, I would grade my trading as a "C-" since I didn't stick to my plan in the afternoon, cut too many winners short, and scalped way too much (40+ trades today).

As of now, looks like I'll be at the condo tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM, unless it rains again, so no trading for tomorrow. A one-day break is probably a good thing on this end.

ES/$TICK (3-Min) - Negative $TICK divergence into the push up to 885.75. Gap filled by 12:14 PM (central).