View full size chart
Showing posts with label fomc. Show all posts
Showing posts with label fomc. Show all posts
Wednesday, January 25, 2012
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Tuesday 03/16/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
Typical FOMC chop session, with two-sided swings in reaction to the Fed announcement. No surprises, really, and the Key Levels homework definitely helped me obtain better trade location. Once you've traded a few Fed days, they definitely become easier to read and trade. I also began watching Volume Delta today, and it was actually quite helpful. I'll post more about it after I've had more screen time. I'm including an annotated 2-minute ES/NYSE TICK chart again today, in case other traders are curious to see some TICK Divergence setups. Today's price action sets us up nicely for tomorrow. Continuation or pullback? Be prepared for both scenarios!
ES/NYSE TICK 2-Min Chart
ES 5-Minute Chart
ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart
Typical FOMC chop session, with two-sided swings in reaction to the Fed announcement. No surprises, really, and the Key Levels homework definitely helped me obtain better trade location. Once you've traded a few Fed days, they definitely become easier to read and trade. I also began watching Volume Delta today, and it was actually quite helpful. I'll post more about it after I've had more screen time. I'm including an annotated 2-minute ES/NYSE TICK chart again today, in case other traders are curious to see some TICK Divergence setups. Today's price action sets us up nicely for tomorrow. Continuation or pullback? Be prepared for both scenarios!
ES/NYSE TICK 2-Min Chart
ES 5-Minute Chart
ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart
Monday, March 15, 2010
Tuesday 03/16/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
Anticipating the regular range-bound price action ahead of the FOMC Announcement at 1:00 PM (CT). Although ES filled the gap and closed on a bullish note, the Russel (TF) and Nasdaq-100 (NQ) were unable to close their gaps from Friday, which could be viewed as a warning sign since the Russel has been leading the way on this extended up move. My Bull/Bear Line in Sand for tomorrow is 1138. Below 1138, I believe we could break through the 1134-36 Low Volume Area and test the 1131-1132 area. Btw, the reaction to FOMC Announcements typically consists of fast two-sided moves (whipsaw), so if you're risk averse, it's probably best to sit out 20-30 minutes following the announcement. Trade well!
Econ Data
Housing Starts and Import and Export Prices at 7:30 AM (CT), Redbook at 7:55 AM (CT), and FOMC Meeting Announcement at 1:00 PM (CT).
ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
Anticipating the regular range-bound price action ahead of the FOMC Announcement at 1:00 PM (CT). Although ES filled the gap and closed on a bullish note, the Russel (TF) and Nasdaq-100 (NQ) were unable to close their gaps from Friday, which could be viewed as a warning sign since the Russel has been leading the way on this extended up move. My Bull/Bear Line in Sand for tomorrow is 1138. Below 1138, I believe we could break through the 1134-36 Low Volume Area and test the 1131-1132 area. Btw, the reaction to FOMC Announcements typically consists of fast two-sided moves (whipsaw), so if you're risk averse, it's probably best to sit out 20-30 minutes following the announcement. Trade well!
Econ Data
Housing Starts and Import and Export Prices at 7:30 AM (CT), Redbook at 7:55 AM (CT), and FOMC Meeting Announcement at 1:00 PM (CT).
ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
Monday 03/15/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
As I posted on Twitter, the plan for Monday morning was to Short the bounces into the Key Resistance Zones which worked out great. Price was unable to fill the gap off the open, and paused at the Initial Resistance Zone. It then went on to make a lower low. Initiating a Short on the retrace back up was the safer trade, IMO. Trade was better facilitated at lower prices right from the open. On the down move, Price quickly rejected 1136.50-1137.50 (Low Volume Area, 36.75 was my Bull/Bear Line in Sand), and began building value above 1137.50 for remainder of the day. We began seeing more aggressive buyers come in to the market after 2 PM (CT). The NYSE TICK provided some nice entries in the Key S/R Areas. I was talking to a friend earlier today about the benefits of doing your homework and identifying areas to do business, and one of the key benefits is that it keeps you from over trading and opening trades in the middle (chop) area. If you're a new trader and still learning to navigate the markets, you can significantly reduce your risk by simply initiating trades at the Key Levels. I personally use a 6 tick max stop-loss, but if you're new and need some more wiggle room, a 2-3 point stop would work fine as well. Use the Key Levels and fine-tune the entry using the NYSE TICK. Check the 2-minute ES/NYSE TICK chart below highlighting some Divergence setups (note: I use 1-minute ES/NYSE TICK chart in my trading). ES filled Friday's gap near the close. We closed on strength near the high of day, so price action is bullish going into tomorrow's FOMC Announcement, which could provide direction on the next swing.
ES/NYSE TICK 2-Min Chart
ES 5-Minute Chart
ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart
As I posted on Twitter, the plan for Monday morning was to Short the bounces into the Key Resistance Zones which worked out great. Price was unable to fill the gap off the open, and paused at the Initial Resistance Zone. It then went on to make a lower low. Initiating a Short on the retrace back up was the safer trade, IMO. Trade was better facilitated at lower prices right from the open. On the down move, Price quickly rejected 1136.50-1137.50 (Low Volume Area, 36.75 was my Bull/Bear Line in Sand), and began building value above 1137.50 for remainder of the day. We began seeing more aggressive buyers come in to the market after 2 PM (CT). The NYSE TICK provided some nice entries in the Key S/R Areas. I was talking to a friend earlier today about the benefits of doing your homework and identifying areas to do business, and one of the key benefits is that it keeps you from over trading and opening trades in the middle (chop) area. If you're a new trader and still learning to navigate the markets, you can significantly reduce your risk by simply initiating trades at the Key Levels. I personally use a 6 tick max stop-loss, but if you're new and need some more wiggle room, a 2-3 point stop would work fine as well. Use the Key Levels and fine-tune the entry using the NYSE TICK. Check the 2-minute ES/NYSE TICK chart below highlighting some Divergence setups (note: I use 1-minute ES/NYSE TICK chart in my trading). ES filled Friday's gap near the close. We closed on strength near the high of day, so price action is bullish going into tomorrow's FOMC Announcement, which could provide direction on the next swing.
ES/NYSE TICK 2-Min Chart
ES 5-Minute Chart
ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart
ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Tuesday 12/15/2009 - S&P 500 Futures Market Review
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
Typical choppy price action ahead of the FOMC announcement. Despite the lack luster pace, there was structure in the (few) moves that materialized today. We got a nice bounce at 1103.25 in the morning (last night's post anticipated a bounce in the 1101-1103 area). From there, ES put in the high of day at 1109.50 (1109 was yesterday's IB high). Price remained under the Mid-Point and VWAP in the afternoon session (bearish), and we saw an acceleration in selling activity once price broke below the IB low. The down move was rejected with a quick move back towards the mid-point into the close.
ES 5-Minute Day Session Chart for 12/15/09
Crude (CLF10)
The triangle break-out I posted about last night worked out to the upside and reached the 138.20-161.80% target zone.
CL - Hourly Chart
Typical choppy price action ahead of the FOMC announcement. Despite the lack luster pace, there was structure in the (few) moves that materialized today. We got a nice bounce at 1103.25 in the morning (last night's post anticipated a bounce in the 1101-1103 area). From there, ES put in the high of day at 1109.50 (1109 was yesterday's IB high). Price remained under the Mid-Point and VWAP in the afternoon session (bearish), and we saw an acceleration in selling activity once price broke below the IB low. The down move was rejected with a quick move back towards the mid-point into the close.
ES 5-Minute Day Session Chart for 12/15/09
Crude (CLF10)
The triangle break-out I posted about last night worked out to the upside and reached the 138.20-161.80% target zone.
CL - Hourly Chart
Key Levels & Scenarios (S&P 500 Futures) for Tuesday 12/15/2009
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
Market is holding up fairly well so far. Price consolidated above the previous VPOC (bullish). We got a 61.8% retracement on the 60-minute chart, and price has been trending higher from there. In the overnight session, near-term bias is bullish as long as price remains above 1108. The initial resistance zone is 1113-1115, with range extension target/resistance in the 1116.50-1118 area. Below here, we have several cushions of support (highlighted in key levels chart).
Scenario
Producer Price Index at 7:30 AM (cst), Redbook at 7:55 am, Industrial Production at 8:15 AM. FOMC meeting begins tomorrow with the announcement on Wednesday. If we get a negative reaction to the Econ data, price could push through the initial support and tag 1101. I am anticipating a bounce in the 1101-1103 area. A positive reaction could take us to the 1118s; I'm anticipating a pullback there. Bias is bullish above 1101, and bearish below it.
ES - Daily Bar Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
Crude (CLF10)
For Crude traders, decent move developing on the hourly chart. Anticipating triangle break-out.
CL - Hourly Chart
Market is holding up fairly well so far. Price consolidated above the previous VPOC (bullish). We got a 61.8% retracement on the 60-minute chart, and price has been trending higher from there. In the overnight session, near-term bias is bullish as long as price remains above 1108. The initial resistance zone is 1113-1115, with range extension target/resistance in the 1116.50-1118 area. Below here, we have several cushions of support (highlighted in key levels chart).
Scenario
Producer Price Index at 7:30 AM (cst), Redbook at 7:55 am, Industrial Production at 8:15 AM. FOMC meeting begins tomorrow with the announcement on Wednesday. If we get a negative reaction to the Econ data, price could push through the initial support and tag 1101. I am anticipating a bounce in the 1101-1103 area. A positive reaction could take us to the 1118s; I'm anticipating a pullback there. Bias is bullish above 1101, and bearish below it.
ES - Daily Bar Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels
Crude (CLF10)
For Crude traders, decent move developing on the hourly chart. Anticipating triangle break-out.
CL - Hourly Chart
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Wed. 04/29/09 - Bullishness Continues
I'm having some work done at my condo in downtown Chicago and was busy meeting with contractors most of the day (thank God I'm not in the construction business). But from the looks of it, I didn't really miss much.
Market rally on bad or mediocre news is indicative of a bull (or at least bullish) market. Everyone is looking for a retrace; no, wishing and praying for a retrace, and it hasn't materialized yet. I've looked over several time-frame charts (15-min, 60-min, 240-min, and Daily) and they're all bullish. I'm not saying I won't short, but I will be cautious on the short side. This market is not letting up and the more bears that pile in on the short side, the stronger the next leg up will be. At the rate this market is moving, breaking above 900 shouldn't take a lot of effort. We've developed substantial support in the 830 area, and now in the 850 area. A pullback to 850 is within reason. My only concern at this point is the weakness in NQ.
On this end, I won't be able to trade tomorrow either since I have to be at the condo at 8:30 AM sharp to get the contractor going on the work. Hopefully I can trade the afternoon session. Personal Income and Outlays at 7:30 AM (central), Jobless Claims at 7:30 AM (central), Chicago PMI at 8:45 AM (central) tomorrow.
I'll leave you with the Daily chart of the S&P Cash Index and the ES. Let me know your thoughts and/or market outlook for the coming days/weeks.
ES - Daily
$SPX.X - Daily
ES/$TICK (3-Min) - Negative $TICK divergence on the push up 879.25. Open gap at 851.25.
Market rally on bad or mediocre news is indicative of a bull (or at least bullish) market. Everyone is looking for a retrace; no, wishing and praying for a retrace, and it hasn't materialized yet. I've looked over several time-frame charts (15-min, 60-min, 240-min, and Daily) and they're all bullish. I'm not saying I won't short, but I will be cautious on the short side. This market is not letting up and the more bears that pile in on the short side, the stronger the next leg up will be. At the rate this market is moving, breaking above 900 shouldn't take a lot of effort. We've developed substantial support in the 830 area, and now in the 850 area. A pullback to 850 is within reason. My only concern at this point is the weakness in NQ.
On this end, I won't be able to trade tomorrow either since I have to be at the condo at 8:30 AM sharp to get the contractor going on the work. Hopefully I can trade the afternoon session. Personal Income and Outlays at 7:30 AM (central), Jobless Claims at 7:30 AM (central), Chicago PMI at 8:45 AM (central) tomorrow.
I'll leave you with the Daily chart of the S&P Cash Index and the ES. Let me know your thoughts and/or market outlook for the coming days/weeks.
ES - Daily
$SPX.X - Daily
ES/$TICK (3-Min) - Negative $TICK divergence on the push up 879.25. Open gap at 851.25.
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
Wed. 03/18/09 - Trend Trading
I decided to sleep in today and got to the screens in the afternoon.
Trying to follow the rules I set out yesterday.
12:18 PM - Long at 771.75 (Uptrend on 3-min time-frame, bought the .618 retracement)
12:44 PM - Exit at 776.75 (1 tick below yesterday's high of 777) for +5 points
1:11 PM - Normally, I would have shorted the double-top in the 777 area, and looks like that would have worked too, but sticking with yesterday's goals, I'm staying out of shorts until the up-trend is clearly broken or price becomes way over extended
2:24 PM - Just hit it long at 781 (market mid-point + 200 EMA on 1-min chart + positive divergence on volume oscillator, support below so I can probably bail for break-even if it doesn't work)
2:25 PM - Exit at 783 for quick +2 points (should have held for a bit longer but there was a lot of momentum to the down-side. Initial target was 785; the level where price broke out to higher highs earlier)
I made more money today in 2 trades than I did with15+ trades yesterday (efficiency). This is EXACTLY what the goals from yesterday were shooting for. Now lets see if I'm able to keep this up.
ES 610-Tickbar (Morning Trade)
ES 610-Tickbar (Afternoon Trade)
Gap filled by 12:45 PM
ES/$TICK (3-Min) - Remained above zero line most of the day
Trying to follow the rules I set out yesterday.
12:18 PM - Long at 771.75 (Uptrend on 3-min time-frame, bought the .618 retracement)
12:44 PM - Exit at 776.75 (1 tick below yesterday's high of 777) for +5 points
1:11 PM - Normally, I would have shorted the double-top in the 777 area, and looks like that would have worked too, but sticking with yesterday's goals, I'm staying out of shorts until the up-trend is clearly broken or price becomes way over extended
2:24 PM - Just hit it long at 781 (market mid-point + 200 EMA on 1-min chart + positive divergence on volume oscillator, support below so I can probably bail for break-even if it doesn't work)
2:25 PM - Exit at 783 for quick +2 points (should have held for a bit longer but there was a lot of momentum to the down-side. Initial target was 785; the level where price broke out to higher highs earlier)
I made more money today in 2 trades than I did with15+ trades yesterday (efficiency). This is EXACTLY what the goals from yesterday were shooting for. Now lets see if I'm able to keep this up.
ES 610-Tickbar (Morning Trade)
ES 610-Tickbar (Afternoon Trade)
Gap filled by 12:45 PM
ES/$TICK (3-Min) - Remained above zero line most of the day
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Wed. 01/28/09 - FOMC Day
No $ trades today either - Market action was pretty weak most of the day. There were some opportunities after the FOMC announcement but I wasn't at the screens to even watch the action. Market gapped up this morning, and was unable to fill the gap. So we now have an unfilled gap from 839.25. Lets see if the market fills that gap later in the week.
Unfilled Gap
ES/TICK (3-min)
Market Balance (5-min Continuous Contract)
Market Balance (5-min Day Session Only)
Unfilled Gap
ES/TICK (3-min)
Market Balance (5-min Continuous Contract)
Market Balance (5-min Day Session Only)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)