Monday 03/15/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
As I posted on Twitter, the plan for Monday morning was to Short the bounces into the Key Resistance Zones which worked out great. Price was unable to fill the gap off the open, and paused at the Initial Resistance Zone. It then went on to make a lower low. Initiating a Short on the retrace back up was the safer trade, IMO. Trade was better facilitated at lower prices right from the open. On the down move, Price quickly rejected 1136.50-1137.50 (Low Volume Area, 36.75 was my Bull/Bear Line in Sand), and began building value above 1137.50 for remainder of the day. We began seeing more aggressive buyers come in to the market after 2 PM (CT). The NYSE TICK provided some nice entries in the Key S/R Areas. I was talking to a friend earlier today about the benefits of doing your homework and identifying areas to do business, and one of the key benefits is that it keeps you from over trading and opening trades in the middle (chop) area. If you're a new trader and still learning to navigate the markets, you can significantly reduce your risk by simply initiating trades at the Key Levels. I personally use a 6 tick max stop-loss, but if you're new and need some more wiggle room, a 2-3 point stop would work fine as well. Use the Key Levels and fine-tune the entry using the NYSE TICK. Check the 2-minute ES/NYSE TICK chart below highlighting some Divergence setups (note: I use 1-minute ES/NYSE TICK chart in my trading). ES filled Friday's gap near the close. We closed on strength near the high of day, so price action is bullish going into tomorrow's FOMC Announcement, which could provide direction on the next swing.

ES/NYSE TICK 2-Min Chart


ES 5-Minute Chart


ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart

Monday 03/15/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
We're near a short-term inflection point here. Everyone has been expecting a healthy pullback for more than a few days now. My Bull/Bear Line in the Sand is 1136.75, and the current near-term bias is cautiously bullish. We could see acceleration in Selling pressure if price gets below the 1132-1133 area. I would anticipate Buying pressure to pick up above 1147.

Econ Data
Empire State Mfg Survey at 7:30 AM (cst), Treasury International Capital at 8:00 AM (cst), Industrial Production at 8:15 AM (cst), and Housing Market Index at 12:00 PM (cst.

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Tuesday 02/16/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
The Key Levels and Scenario posted last night played out well, and although I was too busy to put on any trades, my view of the market was clear and I wasn't looking for Shorting opportunities into the up-trend. I mention this because a year ago, this was not the case and I would have been fighting the trend all day. But today's price action, although boring for better part of the day, seemed very clear to me. The NYSE TICK spent majority of the day above the zero line, with modest moves down to the -600 area. Looking at the 30-minute Day Session Profile, we can see that price remained above the IB High from 10:30 AM (cst) on.

ES 5-Minute Chart for 02/16/10


ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart for 02/16/10


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart for 02/16/10

Tuesday 02/16/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
Based on last week's Buying activity, I'm anticipating upward continuation. We're heading into heavy Areas of Resistance, but also have strong Support below (1064-1067). Unless we get some news-driven activity (Greece, etc), I'm anticipating rotational moves regardless of overall direction. Tuesday is also light on the economic data front, with market-moving econ data coming out later in the week.

Econ Data
Empire State Mfg Survey at 7:30 AM (cst), Treasury International Capital at 8:00 AM (cst), Housing Market Index at 12 PM (cst).

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Tuesday 01/19/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
I know I'm not the only one who was surprised by the unusually strong up move today. I was not anticipating such a strong up move, but was open to the idea. I posted last night that my "process goal will be to keep the personal bias in check, and keep my mind open to bullish scenarios as well." That thought alone kept me out of trouble today. One way I gauge momentum and strength of bulls/bears is by measuring the range of the up/down rotations. As you can see from the 5-min chart, the rotations in the overnight session were favoring the bears with upward rotations averaging around 1.25 points and downward rotations averaging 2.25 points. This relationship reversed when ES pushed from 1127.50 (7:20 AM cst) to 1132.75 (7:40 AM cst). Price also remained above the mid-point and VWAP right from the cash open; another sign that Bulls were in control.

ES 5-Minute Chart for 01/19/10

Key Support/Resistance Levels (S&P 500 Futures) for Tuesday 01/19/2010

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
My bias is bearish below 1137.75, neutral between 1137.75 and 1142 and cautiously bullish above 1142. So far, the price action is turning out to be very similar to MLK day 2006. If that's any indication, we could see much lower prices over night and into the morning session. I'll be looking towards the Globex Low to provide some support at the cash open, and will then key off the over-night mid-point as near-term resistance. Although my current bias is bearish, I have to recognize the fact that 1129.50 was rejected over the short holiday session, and ES has continued to build value above 1134. Tomorrow's process goal will be to keep the personal bias in check, and keep my mind open to bullish scenarios as well.

Econ Data
Treasury International Capital at 8:00 AM (cst), State Street Investor Confidence Index at 9:00 AM (cst), and Housing Market Index at 12:00 PM (cst).

ES - Daily Bar Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels