Monday 03/15/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
As I posted on Twitter, the plan for Monday morning was to Short the bounces into the Key Resistance Zones which worked out great. Price was unable to fill the gap off the open, and paused at the Initial Resistance Zone. It then went on to make a lower low. Initiating a Short on the retrace back up was the safer trade, IMO. Trade was better facilitated at lower prices right from the open. On the down move, Price quickly rejected 1136.50-1137.50 (Low Volume Area, 36.75 was my Bull/Bear Line in Sand), and began building value above 1137.50 for remainder of the day. We began seeing more aggressive buyers come in to the market after 2 PM (CT). The NYSE TICK provided some nice entries in the Key S/R Areas. I was talking to a friend earlier today about the benefits of doing your homework and identifying areas to do business, and one of the key benefits is that it keeps you from over trading and opening trades in the middle (chop) area. If you're a new trader and still learning to navigate the markets, you can significantly reduce your risk by simply initiating trades at the Key Levels. I personally use a 6 tick max stop-loss, but if you're new and need some more wiggle room, a 2-3 point stop would work fine as well. Use the Key Levels and fine-tune the entry using the NYSE TICK. Check the 2-minute ES/NYSE TICK chart below highlighting some Divergence setups (note: I use 1-minute ES/NYSE TICK chart in my trading). ES filled Friday's gap near the close. We closed on strength near the high of day, so price action is bullish going into tomorrow's FOMC Announcement, which could provide direction on the next swing.

ES/NYSE TICK 2-Min Chart


ES 5-Minute Chart


ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart

Monday 03/15/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
We're near a short-term inflection point here. Everyone has been expecting a healthy pullback for more than a few days now. My Bull/Bear Line in the Sand is 1136.75, and the current near-term bias is cautiously bullish. We could see acceleration in Selling pressure if price gets below the 1132-1133 area. I would anticipate Buying pressure to pick up above 1147.

Econ Data
Empire State Mfg Survey at 7:30 AM (cst), Treasury International Capital at 8:00 AM (cst), Industrial Production at 8:15 AM (cst), and Housing Market Index at 12:00 PM (cst.

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Tuesday 02/16/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
The Key Levels and Scenario posted last night played out well, and although I was too busy to put on any trades, my view of the market was clear and I wasn't looking for Shorting opportunities into the up-trend. I mention this because a year ago, this was not the case and I would have been fighting the trend all day. But today's price action, although boring for better part of the day, seemed very clear to me. The NYSE TICK spent majority of the day above the zero line, with modest moves down to the -600 area. Looking at the 30-minute Day Session Profile, we can see that price remained above the IB High from 10:30 AM (cst) on.

ES 5-Minute Chart for 02/16/10


ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart for 02/16/10


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart for 02/16/10

Tuesday 02/16/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
Based on last week's Buying activity, I'm anticipating upward continuation. We're heading into heavy Areas of Resistance, but also have strong Support below (1064-1067). Unless we get some news-driven activity (Greece, etc), I'm anticipating rotational moves regardless of overall direction. Tuesday is also light on the economic data front, with market-moving econ data coming out later in the week.

Econ Data
Empire State Mfg Survey at 7:30 AM (cst), Treasury International Capital at 8:00 AM (cst), Housing Market Index at 12 PM (cst).

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Friday 01/15/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
As I posted last night, the 1141 level was my Line in the Sand to establish directional bias, and it served me well today. My bias was bearish at the open because price had broken down through 1141 as well as Initial Support in overnight trade, and the cash open at 1143 was below previous day's close and in the middle of yesterday's Initial Balance. A break of the 1139.75-1141 area confirmed that sellers were in control. Price also pushed right through the 1135-1137 Support Zone, which was also a sign of aggressive sellers and more selling to follow. Price finally stabilized around 1128.50 (strong support), but only after stopping out the traders who got Long too early in hopes to catch the bottom. It was much better and easier on the nerves to wait, buy the pullback, and trade the rotation back to the IB Low -- I posted this setup/scenario on StockTwits at 12:58 PM (Eastern). Given the weak close below the Initial Balance Low, we could see some continued selling into the next trading session.

Hope you all did great today! I'm off to the Chicago Premier of FLOORED. Have a good weekend!

ES 5-Minute Bar Chart for 01/15/10

Key Support/Resistance Levels (S&P 500 Futures) for Friday 01/15/2010

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
I will continue to use 1141 as Line in the Sand to establish directional bias; bullish above and bearish below it. As long as we remain above 1141, I'm anticipating a test of 1150.50, followed by a pullback. Beyond 1150.50, I would expect a test of 1155.25, and finally the 1159 area. 1128 is still the Big # below, although we now also have some firm support in the 1135-1136 area as well. The estimated daily range for tomorrow is 13.50-17.75 points.

Econ Data
Consumer Price Index and Empire State Mfg Survey at 7:30 AM (cst), Industrial Production at 8:15 AM (cst), and Consumer Sentiment at 8:55 AM (cst).

ES - Daily Bar Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels