Friday 03/19/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures (Options Expiration / Quadruple Witching)
Trading on Friday was great! The Key Levels and Scenario posted the night before played out very well. I posted "A reversal of the overnight trend is something to watch out for at the cash open" and we reversed the overnight up move at the cash open. If you check the Day Session Volume Profile Chart I've been posting since Tuesday, you'll see I was anticipating a test of the 1150.25-1151.75 Area which we finally got on Friday.

I noticed several complaints on Twitter/StockTwits of failed TICK Divergence setups on Friday. I typically only act on TICK divergences that occur at the Key Areas I post every night. I've annotated my 1-minute TICK/ES chart below, and I hope it provides you with some insight and helps you identify better setups in the future. That being said, keep in mind that nothing works 100% of the time. Secondly, a TICK Divergence shouldn't be the only reason to enter a trade. I typically look for a minimum of two reasons to initiate a trade; but ideally there are three reasons to enter a trade. So my only other recommendation would be make sure you have at least one other reason to enter the trade besides a TICK Divergence.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend and best trading!

ES/NYSE TICK 1-Minute Chart (Morning Session)


ES/NYSE TICK 1-Minute Chart (Afternoon Session)


ES 5-Minute Chart


ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart

Friday 03/19/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures (Options Expiration / Quadruple Witching)
With Thursday being a narrow range day, the Key Levels haven't really changed much. Two sided moves are typical on quadruple witching Friday. A reversal of the overnight trend is something to watch out for at the cash open. We typically get a reversal of the morning trend around 11 AM (CT), or early in the afternoon. Bias is bullish above 1158 and bearish below. If we break out above Wednesday's high (1165.50), I would expect price to tag the 1170 area. On the downside, I'm expecting the 1139.50-1141.50 Support Zone to hold. On the upside, I'm expecting the buying to shut off in the 1177-1179.75 Resistance Zone. If you want to play it safe, sit out the first hour. Trade well!

Econ Data
No scheduled econ releases. Quadruple Witching Friday. Watch out for news out of Europe/Greece.

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Thursday 03/18/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
Price bounced off the Initial Support area in overnight trading, and stopped 1 tick ahead of the Overnight Resistance Level after the open. From there, we got a lot of narrow range chop, but price remained below 1162.50 and then broke below the IB Low. From there, we got a minor bounce ahead of Initial Support, which was sold into pushing price 1 tick below Initial Support. Price formed a double-bottom at Initial Support and went on to test the IB Low and ended up closing above the mid-point and VPOC, but below the Overnight Resistance. The fact that price couldn't even test the overnight resistance during the day session signals weakness. Market internals closed on weakness as well, and we may finally get that pullback everyone's been anticipating for days now. Price is currently in a neutral area, and built some acceptance in the 1159-1161 area over the last two days. I'll chalk up the choppy price action this week to quadruple witching and the fact that we're at new yearly highs, so consolidation is to be expected. Next week should be more happening (keeping fingers crossed)!

ES 5-Minute Chart


ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart

Thursday 03/18/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
The Bull/Bear Line in Sand for tomorrow is 1154. Based on the recent price action and market internals/breadth, the near-term bias is Bullish. The challenge in this kind of market is to keep the personal bias in check, and read the market with an open mind. Can the market fall 15-20 points tomorrow? Sure could, but I'm not going to close my mind to a possible move into the upper 1170s. Both scenarios are possible, and as day traders, we must keep the bias in check and trade what's in front of us. If you get good trade location on your Short positions, take advantage of it and try to hold for a larger move down. Tomorrow's focus will be the Jobless Claims data out at 7:30 AM (CT); so the best trade location may only be available in pre-market.

Econ Data
Consumer Price Index and Jobless Claims at 7:30 AM (CT), Leading Indicators and Philadelphia Fed Survey at 9:00 AM (CT), and EIA Natural Gas Report at 9:30 AM (CT).

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Monday 03/15/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
As I posted on Twitter, the plan for Monday morning was to Short the bounces into the Key Resistance Zones which worked out great. Price was unable to fill the gap off the open, and paused at the Initial Resistance Zone. It then went on to make a lower low. Initiating a Short on the retrace back up was the safer trade, IMO. Trade was better facilitated at lower prices right from the open. On the down move, Price quickly rejected 1136.50-1137.50 (Low Volume Area, 36.75 was my Bull/Bear Line in Sand), and began building value above 1137.50 for remainder of the day. We began seeing more aggressive buyers come in to the market after 2 PM (CT). The NYSE TICK provided some nice entries in the Key S/R Areas. I was talking to a friend earlier today about the benefits of doing your homework and identifying areas to do business, and one of the key benefits is that it keeps you from over trading and opening trades in the middle (chop) area. If you're a new trader and still learning to navigate the markets, you can significantly reduce your risk by simply initiating trades at the Key Levels. I personally use a 6 tick max stop-loss, but if you're new and need some more wiggle room, a 2-3 point stop would work fine as well. Use the Key Levels and fine-tune the entry using the NYSE TICK. Check the 2-minute ES/NYSE TICK chart below highlighting some Divergence setups (note: I use 1-minute ES/NYSE TICK chart in my trading). ES filled Friday's gap near the close. We closed on strength near the high of day, so price action is bullish going into tomorrow's FOMC Announcement, which could provide direction on the next swing.

ES/NYSE TICK 2-Min Chart


ES 5-Minute Chart


ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart

Monday 03/15/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
We're near a short-term inflection point here. Everyone has been expecting a healthy pullback for more than a few days now. My Bull/Bear Line in the Sand is 1136.75, and the current near-term bias is cautiously bullish. We could see acceleration in Selling pressure if price gets below the 1132-1133 area. I would anticipate Buying pressure to pick up above 1147.

Econ Data
Empire State Mfg Survey at 7:30 AM (cst), Treasury International Capital at 8:00 AM (cst), Industrial Production at 8:15 AM (cst), and Housing Market Index at 12:00 PM (cst.

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Friday 02/19/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
I was anticipating Responsive Buyers to push price back up, which worked out very well on Friday. The breakout above the IB High around 10:10-10:15 AM (cst) was a clue that Buyers were in control, and the S&P could tag a higher area of Resistance. I avoided the Short side until price reached the Range Extension area, and then initiated a Short at 1110.00. As I've mentioned before on the blog, I view all price action as information. When price slices right through an area marked as "Strong Resistance" -- that is a Key piece of information and is indicative of strength. That Key piece of information kept me from shorting too early. Any information that keeps me out of bad trades, is just as valuable as information that gets me into the good ones.

ES 5-Minute Chart for 02/19/10


ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart for 02/19/10


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart for 02/19/10

Friday 02/19/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
Anticipating Responsive Buyers to come in tomorrow morning. My bias is bullish above 1090 and bearish below. Tomorrow is also options expiration, so be flexible and go with the momentum. Check out the Review/Analysis from December's OpEx on Friday 12/18/2009 if you'd like to get an idea of the type of moves we may see tomorrow. The prices now are about the same as December as well.

Econ Data
Consumer Price Index at 7:30 AM (cst)

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Friday 12/18/2009 - S&P 500 Futures Market Review

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures (Options Expiration / Quadruple Witching)
The key levels and scenario posted last night worked very well today. I posted "we may get a small range extension to the downside, but I'm expecting the 1088s to hold as support" -- that worked out nicely. We got a 2.25 point range extension beyond yesterday's Low of 1090.75. Responsive buyers came in at 1088.50 and pushed price back into the Initial Balance. Beyond that, I was anticipating a test of the IB high, and we got that as well. Overall, the scenario worked out great! I hope you banked some $$$ going into the weekend! Review my annotated 5-minute chart for details.

ES 5-Minute Chart for 12/18/09 Includes Overnight Globex

Key Levels & Scenarios (S&P 500 Futures) for Friday 12/18/2009

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures (Options Expiration / Quadruple Witching)
I'm anticipating tomorrow to be a range-bound day. We may get a small range extension to the downside, but I'm expecting the 1088s to hold as support. If you want to play it "safe", best bet would be to let the Initial Balance develop (first hour of day session), and then anticipate price to remain within the IB range for better part of the day. I'm not anticipating much of an extension past the first hour high/low.

Scenario
My bias is bullish above 1093 and bearish below it. Price is currently at the initial resistance zone. If it breaks above this zone (possibly overnight), the next area of strong resistance is 1099.50-1101.50 and I am anticipating a pullback on first touch. Above that we have some resistance in the 1103.50-1103.75 area. Buying could accelerate above 1103.75. Expecting 1109.50 to hold. On the downside, I am anticipating a bounce on first touch of the initial support zone. If we break below 1093, I'm anticipating a quick move down to the 1088-1089.50 area. Anticipating 1088 to hold. Below 1088, we could see a range extension down to 1084.75. Again, be aware of options expiration and be cautious buying new highs on the day or shorting new lows -- price could reverse quickly.

ES - Daily Bar Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Thursday 12/17/2009 - S&P 500 Futures Market Review

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
The scenario posted last night worked great today. We opened way below yesterday's IB Low, near the 100% range extension level, got a nice bounce back to mid-point and then rotated down all day (as anticipated). Check the 5-minute annotated chart to see how the levels and scenario played out. Hope you guys were able to bank on today's setups!

ES 5-Minute Chart for 12/17/09 Includes Overnight Globex

Key Levels & Scenarios (S&P 500 Futures) for Thursday 12/17/2009

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
Anticipating range expansion and a trend day tomorrow. Pay attention to the overnight trend going into the open; anticipating that trend to remain intact for better part of the day. It goes without saying, that trades should be taken based on real-time price action. It's OK to anticipate, as long as you're willing to toss the idea if it's not working out.

Scenario
Initial support is in the 1100.25-1101.75 zone, with 1096.25-1097.50 below that on a range extension. On the upside, initial resistance is in the 1107.50-1109 area, with the range extension target/resistance around 1114. I'm bullish above 1109, neutral to slightly bullish above 1100 and bearish below 1099. Regardless of direction, I'm anticipating rotational moves where price takes a pause at the support/resistance zones, rotates 2-4 points and then continues in direction of trend. Opening above Wednesday's IB Low (1108) would also be bullish; bearish if we open below. Like I said before, note the trend in the overnight Globex session and trade in direction of trend, until it is broken. Currently, the trend is bearish, but price is trading within the Initial Support zone, so I would not initiate shorts in this area since I'm anticipating a bounce on first touch.

Economic Data
Jobless Claims out at 7:30 am (cst), Leading Indicators and Philadelphia Fed Survey at 9:00 am (cst). Trade well!

ES - Daily Bar Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Wed. 12/16/2009 - S&P 500 Futures Market Review

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
FOMC didn't generate the magnitude of price movement I anticipated, perhaps due to the quadruple witching this Friday, but still offered a couple of nice opportunities if you were patient, and entered trades at key levels. Price went through my initial resistance zone (1105.50-1107) during the overnight Globex session and hit a high of 1112. Price couldn't even extend to reach the 1112 Globex High in the Day Session (weakness) though. Price tested the Initial Balance High on the FOMC release, and sold off from there. If you used the mid-point and VWAP to establish bias, you either banked some profits, or at the very least, escaped with a small loss. There were a few reasons to scale out or exit in the 1103-1103.75 area. Selling shut off right at the 1103 Globex Low.

ES 5-Minute Chart for 12/16/09 Includes Overnight Globex

Key Levels & Scenarios (S&P 500 Futures) for Wednesday 12/16/2009

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
Consumer Price Index and Housing Starts data out at 7:30 AM (cst), and the FOMC Meeting Announcement at 1:15 PM (cst). I'm anticipating range expansion in the afternoon. Many times price will move violently in both directions on the FOMC release. Use the Mid-Point and VWAP/VPOC as your line in the sand to establish bias. On the upside, expecting buying to shut off in the 1117.50-1119 area. On the downside, anticipating selling to shut off in the 1092-1094 area. These are just some rough targets; anything goes! If you're a relatively new trader, best option may be to just observe and absorb the price action so you're better prepared for the next FOMC day. Bias remains bullish above 1100, bearish below it but have to be cautious on the Long side as well since the 60-min chart is currently in a down-trend (possible change in trend above 1109.50). Trade well!

ES - Daily Bar Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Tuesday 12/15/2009 - S&P 500 Futures Market Review

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
Typical choppy price action ahead of the FOMC announcement. Despite the lack luster pace, there was structure in the (few) moves that materialized today. We got a nice bounce at 1103.25 in the morning (last night's post anticipated a bounce in the 1101-1103 area). From there, ES put in the high of day at 1109.50 (1109 was yesterday's IB high). Price remained under the Mid-Point and VWAP in the afternoon session (bearish), and we saw an acceleration in selling activity once price broke below the IB low. The down move was rejected with a quick move back towards the mid-point into the close.

ES 5-Minute Day Session Chart for 12/15/09


Crude (CLF10)
The triangle break-out I posted about last night worked out to the upside and reached the 138.20-161.80% target zone.

CL - Hourly Chart

Monday 12/14/2009 - S&P 500 Market Review

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
As posted last night, the market consolidated in a range while it digested the latest news. The plan called for buying support and shorting resistance, and that worked well so long as you patiently waited for price to get near the support/resistance zones.

ES 5-Minute Day Session Chart for 12/14/09

OpEx Friday - 11/20/2009 Review

Friday played out beautifully, and the scenarios put together on Thursday night provided the preparation necessary to trade the price action in real-time. In the bearish scenario, a test of 1082.50 was anticipated below 1087, and we got that move in the overnight session at 6:10 am (cst): price hit a low of 1083.50, and closed at 1084.50 on the 5-min chart. I was anticipating a test of 1082.50, so not testing 1082.50 is also a valuable piece of information. That 5-minute candle at 6:10 am is a wide-range bar with heavy relative volume (heavy considering the time of day), and I would view it as a significant candle in terms of support/resistance. Mark the open/high/low/close of that bar - the levels could (and did) act as support/resistance in the near-term. Now observe the price action following that candle; price stabilized at the 1084.50 level and broke through the high of that significant candle (1087.50) at 7:30 am (cst). From there, price moved up and hit resistance at 1092.75 (Thursday's POC), and we then sold off all the way down to 1085.25 (78.6% retracement). What does this mean? Is it bullish or bearish? Well, lets see, if the sellers were really in control, I would expect a test of 1083.50, so score one for the bulls for halting the down move at 1085.25. Price then retraced back up to 1088 (a tick above the cash open at 1087.75), and sellers came in again, but this time, they could only push it to 1085.50. Again, if sellers were dominant, I would expect price to test the previous swing low at 1085.25. That didn't happen. Based off this information, I entered Long at 1086 with a 6-tick initial stop, which was moved to break-even once price broke above 1088. The stop was moved to 1088 (+2 pts) once price broke above the mid-point (1089.25). Price came within a tick of triggering the stop, and the exit was at 1090.00. Btw, I had a couple of other small trades prior to this one, but they were tiny winners (4-6 ticks), so I chose to detail out the setup that had some structure to it.

Options Expiration Friday
I checked out the chart from October's OpEx Friday (10/16/09), and see a lot of similarities between 10/16 and 11/20. I wasn't concerned with the absolute values/prices on each day; just the directional swings. Lets do a little compare & contrast between 10/16 and 11/20 and look at the similarities:

1. Price sold off in the overnight session on Both days.
   
2. Price retraced back up into the cash Open
   
3. Price stalled and reversed within the first 30 minutes of the open. Price began reversing down at 8:45 am on 11/20, and at 8:55 am on 10/16. The exact times aren't really important, but it's an interesting coincidence.
   
4. Price retraced back down on both days. Price broke below the Globex Low on 10/16, but wasn't able to get to the Globex Low on 11/20.
   
5. Price then chopped around, and moved higher into the previous day's POC on 10/16 and 11/20.
   
6. Price moved back down into the close, and the down swing began at almost the same times on both days.

Looking at price action for similar days in previous weeks/months is not a part of my trading plan. I just did this exercise because I saw many similarities. I don't know if there's any merit to looking at similar days in the past to get a heads-up on price movement, but I found this to be pretty interesting. If you have any thoughts on this, or have performed similar comparisons in the past, please post in the Comments section.

ES - 5-Min Chart (November 20, 2009)


ES - 5-Min Chart (October 16, 2009)

Key Levels (S&P 500) for Friday 11/20/2009

E-Mini S&P 500
The bearish scenario put together yesterday worked out great this morning. I was anticipating the move below 1100 to be fast - and price dropped 13 points from 1100.75 to 1087.75 in the first half hour of market open (1088 level marked as strong support for a few days now). The 1088 support level held (a 1.50 pt poke below 1088 doesn't really invalidate that "area" IMO), and I'm still counting on that area to hold as support. Could price break below it and test 1082.50? Sure. But I would anticipate a bounce around 1087 on first touch tomorrow (if we get there). Buyers were very active between 1090 and 1091.50 today. The VPOC for today was around 1092.75, and price is currently building/accepting value above 1091. Lets also keep the big picture in mind (daily chart). From that perspective, today's down move is no big deal, and I would anticipate the bulls to actively defend the Key areas of support (1088, 1082.50, 1076).

ES - Hourly Chart (Downside break-out from Triangle)


Bullish Scenario
On the upside, we now have resistance in the 1197 area (anticipating that to hold on first touch), then minor resistanct at 1100, followed by stronger resistance around 1102.50. We also have an open gap at 1108.50 now, and I would anticipate a gap fill on a move above 1102.50.

Bearish Scenario
On the bearish side, I'm anticipating 1087 area to hold on first touch. Below that, we could test 1082.50. It's interesting that price closed at 1082.25 on last month's options expiration Friday. Anticipating 1082.50 to hold on first touch, at which point, shorting the bounce would be a safe play for re-test/potential break of 1082.50. Below 1082.50, we could get a quick move to 1079; and then a grind down to 1076.50 area. Anticipating 1076 area to hold as support on first touch (scale out of shorts, or reverse to Long for a scalp, or possibly more here). If the selloff is really nasty, we could even get to the ultimate downside target of 1064 (not anticipating a strong selloff).

ES - Daily Bar Chart with Fib Levels (Perspective!)


ES - Daily Bar Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels


Crude
Don't have time to do the levels for Crude tonight.

Key Levels (S&P 500 and Crude) for Thursday 11/19/2009

E-Mini S&P 500
After yesterday's inside day, I was anticipating some range expansion today but all we saw was range-bound price movement. Maybe this is due to options expiration week? Who knows (who cares)? The levels were defined and price just bounced around within those areas. Today worked out great for scalpers, but if you were holding on to trades too long, anticipating range expansion, you probably scratched a lot of trades. In any case, price closed at 1108.50 (known level), with the VPOC/VWAP around 1105.75. Yesterday's VPOC was right around 1105 as well so keep an eye on that area. So far tonight, price hit a high of 1109.50 in the Globex session, and then pulled back to 1104 (1103.25 is previous week's high, and 1100 is near-term support). If you look at the 60-minute chart, you'll notice price is consolidating in a triangle, and it will break out of this formation sooner or later. On the upside, I'm eyeing the 1122 level and feel that price could test that level very soon. We've had two tight range days, so be open to larger moves in the coming day or two. Jobless Claims data out at 7:30 am (cst) in the morning.

Bullish Scenario
If we get a break-out to the upside, I would not Short against it until the momentum died down or we approached a big resistance area like 1120-1122. When price broke out above 1103.25 on 11/16, it ended up making its way all the way up to 1112.25 (9 pts higher). So, if we get a break out above 1112.25, could we again move up 9 points, to 1121.25 (oh so close to that 1122 level)? You bet! "Anything can happen at any time" - keeping that phrase in mind will allow you to be open to any and all possibilities instead of having the mindset where you Know what will price Will do. No one Knows!

Bearish Scenario
Looking at the Volume Profile chart, we can see that price has been building value higher over the past few days. We've established nice cushions of support from 1088 to 1100. But because we've established all this support, if/when price breaks down and we get a sell-off, the move could be fast & furious. A lot of Bulls will be put into Losing positions below 1088, and I see that as being the Key support level for the time being. Below that, we could go to 1076 fairly quickly, and finally 1064. I will rely on the 1100 support level until it's broken. Bullish above 1100, bearish below 1088.

ES - Hourly Chart with Price in a Triangle

ES - Daily Bar Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Crude
The Crude (Dec contract) moved within the support and resistance zones defined in yesterday's CL Volume Profile chart. The 138.2% extension was at $80.34, and the high of day on Crude was $80.33 today. Crude also broke out of the bearish channel today. I'm anticipating near-term support in the $79 area, and strong support in the $78 area. Bullish above $79 and Bearish below $77.80.

CLZ9 - Daily Bar Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Friday 04/17/09 - Where do we go from here?

I only traded the first hour or so on Friday netting a little over +$100 but Trade Station isn't showing me the trades for some reason, so the trade chart won't be posted. I later marked up the 610-tick chart in order to stay current with the price action, and the marked up charts will be posted below.

The big question is, where do we go from here? Looking at the daily and weekly charts, there is strong resistance in the 880-884 area. Looking at the 15-min chart, I'm thinking we may get one more push higher into the 880s, and then a strong pullback (3 drives to a top?). If we break above 884, getting to 900 shouldn't require too much additional effort. I don't claim to be a "market technician", so these are amateur observations. My only other concern is, a lot of traders are expecting a pullback here, which is usually a good reason for the market to push higher (traders enter short too early; then cover pushing prices even higher). Check out the following 15-minute chart and let me know what you think:

ES 15-Minute


In support of the bulls, price did break to a new swing high (872) and closed above the mid-point and volume trend indicating strength. The NYSE TICK also remained above zero for most of the day.

On to the regular charts...

ES 610-Tick bar Chart (Morning Price Action) - Range-bound all morning


ES 610-Tick bar Chart (Afternoon Price Action)


Gap filled within 10 minutes of open


ES/$TICK (3-Min) - $TICK MAs above zero most of the day