Monday 03/15/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
As I posted on Twitter, the plan for Monday morning was to Short the bounces into the Key Resistance Zones which worked out great. Price was unable to fill the gap off the open, and paused at the Initial Resistance Zone. It then went on to make a lower low. Initiating a Short on the retrace back up was the safer trade, IMO. Trade was better facilitated at lower prices right from the open. On the down move, Price quickly rejected 1136.50-1137.50 (Low Volume Area, 36.75 was my Bull/Bear Line in Sand), and began building value above 1137.50 for remainder of the day. We began seeing more aggressive buyers come in to the market after 2 PM (CT). The NYSE TICK provided some nice entries in the Key S/R Areas. I was talking to a friend earlier today about the benefits of doing your homework and identifying areas to do business, and one of the key benefits is that it keeps you from over trading and opening trades in the middle (chop) area. If you're a new trader and still learning to navigate the markets, you can significantly reduce your risk by simply initiating trades at the Key Levels. I personally use a 6 tick max stop-loss, but if you're new and need some more wiggle room, a 2-3 point stop would work fine as well. Use the Key Levels and fine-tune the entry using the NYSE TICK. Check the 2-minute ES/NYSE TICK chart below highlighting some Divergence setups (note: I use 1-minute ES/NYSE TICK chart in my trading). ES filled Friday's gap near the close. We closed on strength near the high of day, so price action is bullish going into tomorrow's FOMC Announcement, which could provide direction on the next swing.

ES/NYSE TICK 2-Min Chart


ES 5-Minute Chart


ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart

Monday 03/15/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
We're near a short-term inflection point here. Everyone has been expecting a healthy pullback for more than a few days now. My Bull/Bear Line in the Sand is 1136.75, and the current near-term bias is cautiously bullish. We could see acceleration in Selling pressure if price gets below the 1132-1133 area. I would anticipate Buying pressure to pick up above 1147.

Econ Data
Empire State Mfg Survey at 7:30 AM (cst), Treasury International Capital at 8:00 AM (cst), Industrial Production at 8:15 AM (cst), and Housing Market Index at 12:00 PM (cst.

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Wed. 02/17/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
The Scenario posted last night ("Expecting two-sided moves, and an overall range-bound day tomorrow") worked out well today. I was hoping we would break above 1100, but then again, we've now put in four consecutive Up days with Closes near the High of Day. Perhaps this upside reversal is getting a bit tired and could use a little breather -- I just thought we'd get the breather after tagging the 1107.50 area.

ES 5-Minute Chart for 02/17/10


ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart for 02/17/10


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart for 02/17/10

Wed. 02/17/2010 - Crude Oil Futures Review/Analysis

Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures
Range-bound day in Crude, but the Key Levels worked out fairly well.

CL 5-Minute Chart for 02/17/10

Wed. 02/17/2010 - Crude Oil Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures
Very short on time today so put these together in a hurry -- lets see how they play out.

CL - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Wed. 02/17/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
We've had three consecutive positive days with price closing at or near the High of Day. Typically, I would look for consolidation but if we get positive Econ Data tomorrow morning, we could easily break through 1100. I'm anticipating the Buying to shut off in the 1106-1107.50 Area. Expecting two-sided moves, and an overall range-bound day tomorrow. The pre-market activity on the Econ releases will also provide some reference points and near-term direction.

Econ Data
Housing Starts and Import and Export Prices at 7:30 AM (cst), Redbook at 7:55 AM (cst), Industrial Production at 8:15 AM (cst), FOMC Minutes and Treasury Budget at 1:00 PM (cst)

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Friday 01/15/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
As I posted last night, the 1141 level was my Line in the Sand to establish directional bias, and it served me well today. My bias was bearish at the open because price had broken down through 1141 as well as Initial Support in overnight trade, and the cash open at 1143 was below previous day's close and in the middle of yesterday's Initial Balance. A break of the 1139.75-1141 area confirmed that sellers were in control. Price also pushed right through the 1135-1137 Support Zone, which was also a sign of aggressive sellers and more selling to follow. Price finally stabilized around 1128.50 (strong support), but only after stopping out the traders who got Long too early in hopes to catch the bottom. It was much better and easier on the nerves to wait, buy the pullback, and trade the rotation back to the IB Low -- I posted this setup/scenario on StockTwits at 12:58 PM (Eastern). Given the weak close below the Initial Balance Low, we could see some continued selling into the next trading session.

Hope you all did great today! I'm off to the Chicago Premier of FLOORED. Have a good weekend!

ES 5-Minute Bar Chart for 01/15/10

Key Support/Resistance Levels (S&P 500 Futures) for Friday 01/15/2010

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
I will continue to use 1141 as Line in the Sand to establish directional bias; bullish above and bearish below it. As long as we remain above 1141, I'm anticipating a test of 1150.50, followed by a pullback. Beyond 1150.50, I would expect a test of 1155.25, and finally the 1159 area. 1128 is still the Big # below, although we now also have some firm support in the 1135-1136 area as well. The estimated daily range for tomorrow is 13.50-17.75 points.

Econ Data
Consumer Price Index and Empire State Mfg Survey at 7:30 AM (cst), Industrial Production at 8:15 AM (cst), and Consumer Sentiment at 8:55 AM (cst).

ES - Daily Bar Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Tuesday 12/15/2009 - S&P 500 Futures Market Review

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
Typical choppy price action ahead of the FOMC announcement. Despite the lack luster pace, there was structure in the (few) moves that materialized today. We got a nice bounce at 1103.25 in the morning (last night's post anticipated a bounce in the 1101-1103 area). From there, ES put in the high of day at 1109.50 (1109 was yesterday's IB high). Price remained under the Mid-Point and VWAP in the afternoon session (bearish), and we saw an acceleration in selling activity once price broke below the IB low. The down move was rejected with a quick move back towards the mid-point into the close.

ES 5-Minute Day Session Chart for 12/15/09


Crude (CLF10)
The triangle break-out I posted about last night worked out to the upside and reached the 138.20-161.80% target zone.

CL - Hourly Chart

Key Levels & Scenarios (S&P 500 Futures) for Tuesday 12/15/2009

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
Market is holding up fairly well so far. Price consolidated above the previous VPOC (bullish). We got a 61.8% retracement on the 60-minute chart, and price has been trending higher from there. In the overnight session, near-term bias is bullish as long as price remains above 1108. The initial resistance zone is 1113-1115, with range extension target/resistance in the 1116.50-1118 area. Below here, we have several cushions of support (highlighted in key levels chart).

Scenario
Producer Price Index at 7:30 AM (cst), Redbook at 7:55 am, Industrial Production at 8:15 AM. FOMC meeting begins tomorrow with the announcement on Wednesday. If we get a negative reaction to the Econ data, price could push through the initial support and tag 1101. I am anticipating a bounce in the 1101-1103 area. A positive reaction could take us to the 1118s; I'm anticipating a pullback there. Bias is bullish above 1101, and bearish below it.

ES - Daily Bar Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels


Crude (CLF10)
For Crude traders, decent move developing on the hourly chart. Anticipating triangle break-out.

CL - Hourly Chart

Friday 05/15/09 - No Trades

Turned 26 today, and decided to sleep in since I was up till 2 AM last night finishing some web dev work, and late night reading (check out the Success and Motivation post on Mark Cuban's Blog). As mentioned in yesterday's post, Max Pain Theory predicted price to be in the $87 area for SPY (870s for S&P500 Index). I don't really have much faith in Max Pain, but it's good for entertainment value, and price did come down to 876.75, so maybe I should continue to track it over the next few months and see if it's worth a look. I was busy with web development a good part of the week, and trading was not the main focus. I plan on wrapping up the Web Dev stuff over the weekend so I can focus on trading next week. Ended the week with a net gain of +17.25 pts trading 3 out 5 days, with one of those days dedicated to experimentation. I have high hopes for next week's results.



ES (Daily) - Price still within bullish channel, and 876 low from 05/04/09 was held today.