Wed. 03/31/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
We got a solid bounce at Initial Support, but no follow-through above 1170. NYSE TICK Divergences provided some nice entries on both sides. At this point, the market is pretty much balanced between 1160 and 1170, and we need a catalyst to drive price out of this range.

ES 5-Minute Chart


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart

Wed. 03/31/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
I'm going to continue using 1163.25 as my Bull/Bear Line in Sand, which means the current near-term bias is Bullish. Tomorrow is also the last day of the month, and the market has a tendency to be bullish in the afternoon session. It's a scenario I'm prepared for, so I will try to get more out any Long positions in the afternoon if I see Buy setups around that time. The morning could be choppy or even bearish. Be prepared, go in with a plan, and be mindful of trade location. Initiate trades where you feel comfortable and don't get caught up in the chop. Keep your bias in check. Everyone wants this market to drop, and it could drop tomorrow, or it could test the low 1180s. Trade well!

Econ Data
ADP Employment Report at 7:15 AM (CT), Chicago PMI at 8:45 AM (CT), Factory Orders at 9:00 AM (CT), and EIA Petroleum Status Report at 9:30 AM (CT).

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Thursday 03/04/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
The best opportunities of the day were early in the morning; Shorting the Strong Resistance area, and entering Long after Responsive Buyers came in and quickly rejected the 1115.50 Level (overnight support area). Following those two swings, Price remained in a narrow 4-5 point range for better part of the day. The range trade and real-time support/resistance levels were posted on Twitter/StockTwits in real-time. I also noted an improvement in market internals, and posted about it on Twitter/StockTwits before noon (cst). Market internals continued improving into the afternoon, and we got a move out of the range (value). Overall, a choppy day, but what do you expect when price is so close to a big area of resistance ahead of non-farm payroll data?

ES 5-Minute Chart


ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart

Thursday 03/04/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
I'm going to continue using 1112.50 as my Bull/Bear Line in the Sand; bullish above and bearish below it. 1113.75-1114.25 is a heavy area of acceptance this week, and so far, we've bounced a couple of points off 1114. Anticipating Responsive Buyers to defend that 1112.50 area on first touch. If that fails, we could see some heavier liquidation and a quick move down to the 1108 area, followed by a test of the 1103-1105 area. On the upside, I would expect rotation in the 1122.50-1124.50 area. If we break-out above yesterday's high (1125), we could get a fast move up to 1129 as Shorts cover their positions. Upside target above 1125 is 1132. The Jobless Claims data and the Pending Home Sales Index are market moving econ releases; so be careful around that time. Trade well!

Econ Data
Jobless Claims and Productivity and Costs at 7:30 AM (cst), Factory Orders and Pending Home Sales Index at 9:00 AM (cst), EIA Natural Gas Report at 9:30 AM (cst).

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Thursday 02/04/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
If you lost a little bit of money today, Relax; days like today are not the norm. If you lost a lot of money on the other hand, take tomorrow off and thoroughly go over your risk management plan, and your execution from today. Today's sell-off was triggered based on concerns over the employment situation and European debt. You could say it was a news induced panic sell-off. Despite the news and panic selling, most of the Key Support Levels still managed to provide a pause in the selling, and some rotation -- so even if you took a counter-trend Long at Key Support, you had plenty of time to move the stop to break-even and bail on the trade. We filled two open gaps today, 1070.50 and 1061.75. 1059.75 was identified as a Strong Support Level in Monday night's post.

If you learned any lesson today, or would like to share a thought, I encourage you to post in the Comments section.

ES 5-Minute Chart for 02/04/10

Thursday 02/04/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
Inside days account for around 10% of all trading days in the S&Ps, and are typically followed by range expansion, so that's the anticipation for tomorrow. On the upside, I think we can easily tag the 1105-1107 area, and on the downside 1084-1086 shouldn't be an issue. The day session range on this retracement back up has been around 18-20 points. I'm anticipating the range to be less than that tomorrow due to the Non-farm Payroll release on Friday

Econ Data
Jobless Claims and Productivity and Costs at 7:30 AM (cst), Factory Orders at 9:00 AM (cst), EIA Natural Gas Report at 9:30 AM (cst).

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Tuesday 01/05/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

A quick shout out to StockTwits for including my Key Levels post from last night in their Chartly Technical Knockout morning newsletter! Thanks guys, appreciate it!

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
The Key Levels and Scenario worked beautifully today. Last night's post called to short the Initial Resistance (1130-1132) on first touch and go Long at Initial Support (1123-1125) on first touch, and those were the best trades of the day. Although today's 8-point range was well below the average, ES managed to build value above 1127 on higher volume than yesterday, which is reassuring for the bulls. At the same time, any move below 1125-1127 puts the short-term Buyers in a losing position. Just the like the Bears, the Bulls will most likely add to their position on the first push down to 1123, but any subsequent swing down below 1123 could result in some liquidation. Bias is bullish above 1127; neutral to bullish above 1123 and bearish below 1122.

ES 5-Minute Chart for 01/05/10 Includes Overnight Globex

Key Support/Resistance Levels (S&P 500 Futures) for Tuesday 01/05/2010

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
Today's run up indicates a strong push by the other time-frame buyer, and so far buyers are in control in the overnight session as well. I'm anticipating consolidation or minor range expansion to the upside tomorrow. The average range estimate is 12-16 points. When a market is consolidating, I look to fade the moves into support/resistance, which means I'll be looking to short around 1132-1133 on first touch, again in the 1135-1137 area and finally in the 1140-1142 area. By the same principle, I'll be looking to go Long in the 1123.25-1125 area on first touch, and again in the 1118 and 1112 areas. Read the price action in real-time and enter if an entry within your risk parameters presents itself.

Economic Data
Redbook at 7:55 AM (CST), Factory Orders and Pending Home Sales Index at 9:00 AM (CST)

ES - Daily Bar Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Upside Key Levels


Downside Key Levels