Thursday 03/04/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
The best opportunities of the day were early in the morning; Shorting the Strong Resistance area, and entering Long after Responsive Buyers came in and quickly rejected the 1115.50 Level (overnight support area). Following those two swings, Price remained in a narrow 4-5 point range for better part of the day. The range trade and real-time support/resistance levels were posted on Twitter/StockTwits in real-time. I also noted an improvement in market internals, and posted about it on Twitter/StockTwits before noon (cst). Market internals continued improving into the afternoon, and we got a move out of the range (value). Overall, a choppy day, but what do you expect when price is so close to a big area of resistance ahead of non-farm payroll data?

ES 5-Minute Chart


ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart

Thursday 03/04/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
I'm going to continue using 1112.50 as my Bull/Bear Line in the Sand; bullish above and bearish below it. 1113.75-1114.25 is a heavy area of acceptance this week, and so far, we've bounced a couple of points off 1114. Anticipating Responsive Buyers to defend that 1112.50 area on first touch. If that fails, we could see some heavier liquidation and a quick move down to the 1108 area, followed by a test of the 1103-1105 area. On the upside, I would expect rotation in the 1122.50-1124.50 area. If we break-out above yesterday's high (1125), we could get a fast move up to 1129 as Shorts cover their positions. Upside target above 1125 is 1132. The Jobless Claims data and the Pending Home Sales Index are market moving econ releases; so be careful around that time. Trade well!

Econ Data
Jobless Claims and Productivity and Costs at 7:30 AM (cst), Factory Orders and Pending Home Sales Index at 9:00 AM (cst), EIA Natural Gas Report at 9:30 AM (cst).

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Tuesday 02/02/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
Price not only held above Initial Support in the overnight Globex session as well as at the Cash Open, but also blew right through the Initial Resistance area, which was indicative that Buyers were in control. Due to my schedule, I wasn't around to take advantage of the Buying opportunities at the open or on the pullback around 10:15 AM (cst). My market reads were good today, and I avoided Shorting too early. I posted the following on StockTwits at 10:37 AM (cst): "Not shorting this here -- expecting 97-98 area to get tagged later today. Better area to short, IMHO". My goal was to be patient and wait for price to get to my area. I entered short at 1099 with a 1 pt stop at 12:55 PM (cst). I only took 1-2 ticks of heat on the trade (benefit of entering at the edge). Around 1 PM, I had to leave for class so ended up scratching the trade -- 20 minutes later price hit my target of 1096. Oh well -- there will be plenty more trades and I am essentially trading with a handicap right now (at my day job, on a laptop and mobile air-card), so I'm thinking (hoping) things will only get better when I go full-time. Had a couple of quick scalps in 6E to balance out my lack of activity in the ES and that was my day. I have to admit I do find strong trend days like today tougher to trade as compared to range-bound/rotational days -- like Monday.

How was your day? Post in the comments!

ES 5-Minute Chart for 02/02/10

Tuesday 02/02/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
1081.25-1083.00 was a heavily accepted area today, but overall, the move up was on below average volume. My bias is bullish above 1079, neutral between 1071.75-1079, and bearish below. I'm expecting tomorrow to be a more challenging trading day compared to today, and my plan is to enter the market with NO bias at all. After today's inside day, I'm expecting range expansion tomorrow, and don't plan on fading the short-term momentum unless we're in a Strong Support/Resistance area such as 1096-1098 on the upside and 1066-1068 on the downside. I'm having a hard time quantifying this, but tomorrow "feels" riskier to me for some reason. Lets see how it plays out!

Econ Data
Redbook at 7:55 AM (cst), Pending Home Sales Index at 9:00 AM (cst), Tim Geithner and Paul Volcker scheduled to speak at 9:00 AM (cst). Might be best to sit out the first hour, let the Initial Balance develop and then put some trades on with more information on hand.

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Tuesday 01/05/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

A quick shout out to StockTwits for including my Key Levels post from last night in their Chartly Technical Knockout morning newsletter! Thanks guys, appreciate it!

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
The Key Levels and Scenario worked beautifully today. Last night's post called to short the Initial Resistance (1130-1132) on first touch and go Long at Initial Support (1123-1125) on first touch, and those were the best trades of the day. Although today's 8-point range was well below the average, ES managed to build value above 1127 on higher volume than yesterday, which is reassuring for the bulls. At the same time, any move below 1125-1127 puts the short-term Buyers in a losing position. Just the like the Bears, the Bulls will most likely add to their position on the first push down to 1123, but any subsequent swing down below 1123 could result in some liquidation. Bias is bullish above 1127; neutral to bullish above 1123 and bearish below 1122.

ES 5-Minute Chart for 01/05/10 Includes Overnight Globex

Key Support/Resistance Levels (S&P 500 Futures) for Tuesday 01/05/2010

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
Today's run up indicates a strong push by the other time-frame buyer, and so far buyers are in control in the overnight session as well. I'm anticipating consolidation or minor range expansion to the upside tomorrow. The average range estimate is 12-16 points. When a market is consolidating, I look to fade the moves into support/resistance, which means I'll be looking to short around 1132-1133 on first touch, again in the 1135-1137 area and finally in the 1140-1142 area. By the same principle, I'll be looking to go Long in the 1123.25-1125 area on first touch, and again in the 1118 and 1112 areas. Read the price action in real-time and enter if an entry within your risk parameters presents itself.

Economic Data
Redbook at 7:55 AM (CST), Factory Orders and Pending Home Sales Index at 9:00 AM (CST)

ES - Daily Bar Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Upside Key Levels


Downside Key Levels

Monday 05/04/09 - ES Over 900 (Finally!)

I've been expecting (hoping for) a break above 900 for a while, so it's good to see it finally materialize. Unfortunately, price didn't pullback much so it was tough finding a good area to buy. If you didn't buy on the pullback to 889, you were left trading consolidation chop. My problem is, after ES makes a big up move, I have a hard time entering Long because I feel like price is "too high" and will reverse on me. Price has reversed hard so many times off the intraday high in the past few weeks, that it's a little scary buying above the first hour high; especially when price is so close to 900, which a lot of people perceive as a psychological barrier or resistance zone. Bottom line is, I need to set my biases aside and trade price. As day traders, we don't buy/sell value so the specific price shouldn't matter. We trade momentum. So as long as momentum is supporting the direction of my trade, I shouldn't be afraid to get in. Here's how today broke down in terms of performance across 18 trades:

% Break-Even:	31.58%
% Win	47.37%
% Loss	21.05%
Avg Win	1.00
Avg Loss	-0.425
Largest Win (pts)	2.00
Largest Loss (pts)	-1.50
Total Win (pts)	9.00
Total Loss (pts)	-4.25
Net Gain/Loss (pts)	+4.75

At this point, I'm looking for 879 to hold as support on a pullback.

I'll post a marked up 610 tick bar trade chart; it doesn't have all of my trades, just the ones I had time to mark in real-time. I'm using Infinity's execution platform so the trades aren't auto-plotted on my TradeStation charts now.

ES 610 Tick Bar Chart (Morning Trades)


ES 610 Tick Bar Chart (Afternoon Trades)


ES/$TICK (3-Min) - Open Gap at 876.50


ES (60 Min) - Looking for 879-886.75 as an area of support on a pullback