Tuesday 03/16/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
Typical FOMC chop session, with two-sided swings in reaction to the Fed announcement. No surprises, really, and the Key Levels homework definitely helped me obtain better trade location. Once you've traded a few Fed days, they definitely become easier to read and trade. I also began watching Volume Delta today, and it was actually quite helpful. I'll post more about it after I've had more screen time. I'm including an annotated 2-minute ES/NYSE TICK chart again today, in case other traders are curious to see some TICK Divergence setups. Today's price action sets us up nicely for tomorrow. Continuation or pullback? Be prepared for both scenarios!

ES/NYSE TICK 2-Min Chart


ES 5-Minute Chart


ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart

Tuesday 03/16/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
Anticipating the regular range-bound price action ahead of the FOMC Announcement at 1:00 PM (CT). Although ES filled the gap and closed on a bullish note, the Russel (TF) and Nasdaq-100 (NQ) were unable to close their gaps from Friday, which could be viewed as a warning sign since the Russel has been leading the way on this extended up move. My Bull/Bear Line in Sand for tomorrow is 1138. Below 1138, I believe we could break through the 1134-36 Low Volume Area and test the 1131-1132 area. Btw, the reaction to FOMC Announcements typically consists of fast two-sided moves (whipsaw), so if you're risk averse, it's probably best to sit out 20-30 minutes following the announcement. Trade well!

Econ Data
Housing Starts and Import and Export Prices at 7:30 AM (CT), Redbook at 7:55 AM (CT), and FOMC Meeting Announcement at 1:00 PM (CT).

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Wed. 02/17/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
The Scenario posted last night ("Expecting two-sided moves, and an overall range-bound day tomorrow") worked out well today. I was hoping we would break above 1100, but then again, we've now put in four consecutive Up days with Closes near the High of Day. Perhaps this upside reversal is getting a bit tired and could use a little breather -- I just thought we'd get the breather after tagging the 1107.50 area.

ES 5-Minute Chart for 02/17/10


ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart for 02/17/10


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart for 02/17/10

Wed. 02/17/2010 - Crude Oil Futures Review/Analysis

Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures
Range-bound day in Crude, but the Key Levels worked out fairly well.

CL 5-Minute Chart for 02/17/10

Wed. 02/17/2010 - Crude Oil Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures
Very short on time today so put these together in a hurry -- lets see how they play out.

CL - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Wed. 02/17/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
We've had three consecutive positive days with price closing at or near the High of Day. Typically, I would look for consolidation but if we get positive Econ Data tomorrow morning, we could easily break through 1100. I'm anticipating the Buying to shut off in the 1106-1107.50 Area. Expecting two-sided moves, and an overall range-bound day tomorrow. The pre-market activity on the Econ releases will also provide some reference points and near-term direction.

Econ Data
Housing Starts and Import and Export Prices at 7:30 AM (cst), Redbook at 7:55 AM (cst), Industrial Production at 8:15 AM (cst), FOMC Minutes and Treasury Budget at 1:00 PM (cst)

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Wed. 01/27/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
Typical range-bound movement ahead of FOMC, followed by some range expansion on the announcement. I've been posting that 1080.50 area as Strong Support this entire week, and so far, that area has proven to be a great place to get Long.

ES 10-Minute Chart for 01/27/10

Wed. 01/27/2010 - Euro FX Futures Review/Analysis

Euro FX (EUR/USD) Futures
So far, I'm really liking the price action in 6E. It's a trader's market offering swift swings in both directions. I traded the 6E today, and the Key was to keep losses small (that's true of trading any market though). The instrument offers more than enough entries, so I just focused on keeping losses to a minimum and re-entering at the next setup. The rest took care of itself. Going forward, I'll definitely be focusing on 6E in addition to ES.

EC/6E 10-Minute Chart for 01/27/10

Wed. 01/27/2010 - No Key S/R Levels Tonight

No Key Levels post tonight due to too much homework and too little sleep. Anticipating range-bound action in the morning, and range expansion in the afternoon on the FOMC Announcement.

Econ Data
New Home Sales at 9:00 AM (cst), EIA Petroleum Status Report at 9:30 AM (cst), FOMC Meeting Announcement at 1:15 PM (cst).

Wed. 01/06/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
As mentioned in last night's post, my bias was bullish above 1127, and ES double-bottomed at the overnight Low of 1127.25. From there, ES made rotational moves up into the Initial Resistance Zone and had a lot of trouble getting through that area. After pulling back several times off the Initial Resistance Zone, ES finally made it to the Range Extension area, and pulled back again. I traded both Long and Short, at or near the Key Levels. I also made sure I was buying on pullbacks since I was cautious on the Long side.

ES 5-Minute Chart for 01/06/10 Includes Overnight Globex

Key Support/Resistance Levels (S&P 500 Futures) for Wed. 01/06/2010

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
The other indexes (YM, NQ, and TF) are showing signs of weakness, which at the very least, calls for some caution on the Long side. Holding the 1123 area on any push down is fairly important for the Bulls. I'm anticipating a bounce in the 1123-1125 area on first touch, due to nervous Bears covering their positions and over-confident Bulls adding to their Long positions. A break of that 1123 support could take us to the 1118-1120 area in a hurry. Bias is bullish above 1127; neutral to bullish above 1123 and bearish below 1122.

Econ Data
ADP Employment Report at 7:15 AM (cst), ISM Non-Mfg Index at 9:00 AM (cst), EIA Petroleum Status Report at 9:30 AM (cst), and FOMC Minutes at 1:00 PM (cst).

ES - Daily Bar Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Wed. 12/16/2009 - S&P 500 Futures Market Review

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
FOMC didn't generate the magnitude of price movement I anticipated, perhaps due to the quadruple witching this Friday, but still offered a couple of nice opportunities if you were patient, and entered trades at key levels. Price went through my initial resistance zone (1105.50-1107) during the overnight Globex session and hit a high of 1112. Price couldn't even extend to reach the 1112 Globex High in the Day Session (weakness) though. Price tested the Initial Balance High on the FOMC release, and sold off from there. If you used the mid-point and VWAP to establish bias, you either banked some profits, or at the very least, escaped with a small loss. There were a few reasons to scale out or exit in the 1103-1103.75 area. Selling shut off right at the 1103 Globex Low.

ES 5-Minute Chart for 12/16/09 Includes Overnight Globex

Key Levels & Scenarios (S&P 500 Futures) for Wednesday 12/16/2009

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
Consumer Price Index and Housing Starts data out at 7:30 AM (cst), and the FOMC Meeting Announcement at 1:15 PM (cst). I'm anticipating range expansion in the afternoon. Many times price will move violently in both directions on the FOMC release. Use the Mid-Point and VWAP/VPOC as your line in the sand to establish bias. On the upside, expecting buying to shut off in the 1117.50-1119 area. On the downside, anticipating selling to shut off in the 1092-1094 area. These are just some rough targets; anything goes! If you're a relatively new trader, best option may be to just observe and absorb the price action so you're better prepared for the next FOMC day. Bias remains bullish above 1100, bearish below it but have to be cautious on the Long side as well since the 60-min chart is currently in a down-trend (possible change in trend above 1109.50). Trade well!

ES - Daily Bar Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Wed. 09/02/2009 - Consolidation Day (Range Bound)

Consolidation day, which was expected, after yesterday's down trend from the open. Price remained within the over-night range all day. Best to fade the range extremes or just sit back and wait for a directional move out of the range. Jobless Claims data at 7:30 AM (central) tomorrow morning should provide some volatility and direction.

ES - 5-Min Chart for Wednesday 09/02/2009

Wed. 05/20/09 - Last Minute Trade

As noted in yesterday's post, I had a job interview this morning which went pretty well, IMO, but you never know until they present an offer in writing. I got back home around 2:30 PM (central), and immediately fired up the trading PC to check the market...and wow, quite a nice reversal there. Saw a short setting up on the 5-min chart, waited for a couple of minutes, then jumped in short at 905; exited at 901 for +4 pts. Had a couple of small scalps in between and ended with a +5.00 pt gain, which took a whole 10 minutes. For tomorrow, looking for the 888-892 area to hold as support. Here's how the Stats broke down on my 10 minutes of trading:

# of Trades	3
Longs	0
Shorts	3
% Break-Even:	0.00
% Win	100.00
% Loss	0.00
Avg Win	1.67
Avg Loss	0.00
Largest Win (pts)	4.00
Largest Loss (pts)	0.00
Total Win (pts)	5.00
Total Loss (pts)	0.00
Net Gain/Loss (pts)	5.00
ES Daily Range	24.25
P/L as % of Daily Range	20.62

On another note, wanted to give provide an update on my friend who I'm currently teaching how to trade. This is his 4th week trading the ES with 1 contract, and currently his Net P&L is at +$4,363.20 after commissions (87.25+ ES Points Net!) and he still has 2 more days to go in the week. I'm rooting for him and shooting for a +$5K net gain which would mean a 100% return on an initial $5K account within 1 month. And please keep in mind that the simulated fills on the Infinity Sim are technically worst than realistic fills since the Sim doesn't fill your Sell order until the Bid moves to that price and doesn't fill your Buy order until that price is offered at the Ask. The gain was accomplished using 6-8 tick stops, and price action charts only (No Indicators, Moving Averages, Fibonacci, etc). He's proof that simpler is better.

Jobless Claims at 7:30 AM (central), Leading Indicators at 9:00 AM tomorrow morning.

ES/$TICK (5-Min)


ES (Daily) - Watching 888-892 for support