Tuesday 03/16/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
Typical FOMC chop session, with two-sided swings in reaction to the Fed announcement. No surprises, really, and the Key Levels homework definitely helped me obtain better trade location. Once you've traded a few Fed days, they definitely become easier to read and trade. I also began watching Volume Delta today, and it was actually quite helpful. I'll post more about it after I've had more screen time. I'm including an annotated 2-minute ES/NYSE TICK chart again today, in case other traders are curious to see some TICK Divergence setups. Today's price action sets us up nicely for tomorrow. Continuation or pullback? Be prepared for both scenarios!

ES/NYSE TICK 2-Min Chart


ES 5-Minute Chart


ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart

Tuesday 03/16/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
Anticipating the regular range-bound price action ahead of the FOMC Announcement at 1:00 PM (CT). Although ES filled the gap and closed on a bullish note, the Russel (TF) and Nasdaq-100 (NQ) were unable to close their gaps from Friday, which could be viewed as a warning sign since the Russel has been leading the way on this extended up move. My Bull/Bear Line in Sand for tomorrow is 1138. Below 1138, I believe we could break through the 1134-36 Low Volume Area and test the 1131-1132 area. Btw, the reaction to FOMC Announcements typically consists of fast two-sided moves (whipsaw), so if you're risk averse, it's probably best to sit out 20-30 minutes following the announcement. Trade well!

Econ Data
Housing Starts and Import and Export Prices at 7:30 AM (CT), Redbook at 7:55 AM (CT), and FOMC Meeting Announcement at 1:00 PM (CT).

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Wed. 02/17/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
The Scenario posted last night ("Expecting two-sided moves, and an overall range-bound day tomorrow") worked out well today. I was hoping we would break above 1100, but then again, we've now put in four consecutive Up days with Closes near the High of Day. Perhaps this upside reversal is getting a bit tired and could use a little breather -- I just thought we'd get the breather after tagging the 1107.50 area.

ES 5-Minute Chart for 02/17/10


ES 30-Min Volume Profile Chart for 02/17/10


ES Day Session Volume Profile Chart for 02/17/10

Wed. 02/17/2010 - Crude Oil Futures Review/Analysis

Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures
Range-bound day in Crude, but the Key Levels worked out fairly well.

CL 5-Minute Chart for 02/17/10

Wed. 02/17/2010 - Crude Oil Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures
Very short on time today so put these together in a hurry -- lets see how they play out.

CL - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Wed. 02/17/2010 - S&P 500 Futures Key Support/Resistance Levels

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
We've had three consecutive positive days with price closing at or near the High of Day. Typically, I would look for consolidation but if we get positive Econ Data tomorrow morning, we could easily break through 1100. I'm anticipating the Buying to shut off in the 1106-1107.50 Area. Expecting two-sided moves, and an overall range-bound day tomorrow. The pre-market activity on the Econ releases will also provide some reference points and near-term direction.

Econ Data
Housing Starts and Import and Export Prices at 7:30 AM (cst), Redbook at 7:55 AM (cst), Industrial Production at 8:15 AM (cst), FOMC Minutes and Treasury Budget at 1:00 PM (cst)

ES - Daily Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Thursday 01/14/2010 - E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Review/Analysis
I wasn't expecting such a narrow range day (8.75 points from Low to High). Only consolation is that narrow range days are typically followed by wide range days. I was using the 1141 level as Line in the Sand to establish directional bias (bullish above, bearish below). Most of the volume today was above 1141, and that level is still "in play". I was Long at 41.75 and exited in the 1145.25 area ahead of the IB High. We got a rotation back to the Initial Balance off the Initial Resistance Zone near the close.

ES 5-Minute Chart for 01/14/10

Key Support/Resistance Levels (S&P 500 Futures) for Thursday 01/14/2010

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
As long as tomorrow's Econ releases don't throw off the current upside momentum, my bias will remain bullish above 1141. If we start moving higher, price could slice right through the Initial Resistance Zone without a retrace. On the downside, I'm anticipating a pause and rotation in the Initial Support Zone, followed by a pause in the 1128.50-1130.50 area. If that area breaks, we could see heavy selling. My scenario for tomorrow is anticipating a wide initial balance. If we're trading above the initial balance in the afternoon, I'm anticipating a return to balance prior to the close. If we break 1127, I would expect a trend day to the down side. Please note that this is just a scenario/framework, and actual trades will be based on reading price in real-time.

Econ Data
Retail Sales, Jobless Claims and Import and Export Prices at 7:30 AM (cst), Business Inventories at 9:00 AM (cst) and EIA Natural Gas Report at 9:30 AM (cst).

ES - Daily Bar Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels

Key Levels & Scenarios (S&P 500) for Friday 12/11/2009

E-Mini S&P 500 (March 2010 Contract)
Volume shifted to the March 2010 ES contract towards the afternoon, and going forward, the key levels will be for the March contract. I was busy attending a technology event this evening, and didn't get home till later, which means less time for market analysis. I didn't have much time, but managed to put together some levels for the March contract.

1097.25-1099 is an accepted area at this point, so I'd like to see it hold for continued upside (currently trading at 1100.25). The initial resistance zone is 1103.50-1105.50 and initial support zone is 1093-1094.50. We have a few economic releases tomorrow morning which will probably result in quick volatile moves, so we could blow through the initial support/resistance zones in a hurry. If price is still trading around 1100, I would anticipate a bounce around 1090 and a pullback around 1110, on the econ release move. Make a note of the trend going into the economic release; don't overstay in the counter-trend move - price could reverse again and continue on its original path (trend). As long as you have a plan in place, you won't be shocked/surprised by the moves.

Retail Sales and Import and Export Prices out at 7:30 am (cst). Consumer Sentiment at 8:55 am (cst) and Business Inventories at 9:00 am (cst).

ES - Daily Bar Chart with Volume Profile and Key Levels


Crude (CLF10)
For Crude traders, here's how I'm seeing the levels on the Hourly chart for CLF10.

CL - Hourly Chart